TBL @ UTA 4–5 · 2026-10-24

Tampa BayTBLLightning4

Final/OTOct 242026-10-24

Team	1	2	3	OT	SOG
TBL	3	1	0	0	33
UTA	2	2	0	1	28

Delta Center

UtahUTAMammoth5

CallNo lean · 53% UTA

Star 1D. Simashev2G 0A
Star 2K. Yamamoto1G 0A
Star 3V. Trocheck0G 2A

Closing linesDraftKings

+124Moneyline-148+1.5 -198Puck line-1.5 +164O -115Total 6.5U -105+175RegulationTie +320 +110+1051st period-135+1951st · 3-wayTie +185 +154

Season odds

98%95%−2.6Playoffs91%91%+0.718%13%−5.1Cup4.1%4.1%±0.0

Story

– / 17

Result UTA 5–4 OTCall No lean · UTA 53%Market UTA 58%xG 4.01–3.62 · deserved TBL 56%Swing Simashev +49 OT 1:44Method

Goals and penalties with UTA win probability
Time	Event	UTA win before	UTA win after
1st 2:32	TBL penalty · J. Viel · slashing · 2 min
1st 5:10	Goal TBL · J. Guentzel	53%	37%
1st 7:02	Goal UTA · K. Yamamoto	36%	53%
1st 7:42	UTA penalty · J. McBain · delaying game puck over glass · 2 min
1st 10:06	Goal TBL · P. Holmberg	53%	36%
1st 11:23	UTA penalty · C. Keller · interference · 2 min
1st 12:42	Goal TBL · B. Point (PP)	35%	20%
1st 17:19	TBL penalty · E. Lilleberg · interference · 2 min
1st 17:39	Goal UTA · D. Guenther (PP)	19%	34%
2nd 2:24	UTA penalty · M. Sergachev · tripping · 2 min
2nd 5:32	Goal TBL · C. Geekie	32%	16%
2nd 12:33	TBL penalty · N. Kucherov · hooking · 2 min
2nd 14:39	Goal UTA · A. Lee	12%	29%
2nd 17:02	Goal UTA · D. Simashev	28%	52%
3rd 15:27	TBL penalty · C. D'Astous · roughing · 2 min
3rd 15:27	UTA penalty · K. Stenlund · roughing · 2 min
OT 1:44	Goal UTA · D. Simashev	51%	100%

On ice · final horn

TBL3 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
21B. PointC	0:34	18:34	25	1	0	1	2	6	0	0	0	8-12
38B. HagelL	0:34	22:51	33	0	0	0	7	11	0	1	1	–
74J. CarlsonD	0:34	21:41	27	0	0	0	0	6	0	1	0	–
35D. HildebyG		61:44	SA27GA4SV%.852xGA3.37GSAx−0.63

UTA3 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
27B. HaytonC	0:34	15:54	25	0	0	0	3	6	0	0	2	10-5
56K. YamamotoR	0:34	16:31	23	1	0	1	4	6	0	2	2	1-0
26D. SimashevD	0:34	15:53	27	1	0	1	2	2	0	2	0	–
70K. VejmelkaG		61:44	SA33GA4SV%.879xGA4.01GSAx+0.01

Goals

1st
Jake Guentzel(7)
Unassisted
xG 0.10Clip(opens nhl.com)
1–0 TBL1st 05:10+16.463%
Kailer Yamamoto(3)
Unassisted
xG 0.13wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–1 Tied1st 07:02+16.753%
Pontus Holmberg(3)
E. Cernak (2), R. McDonagh (2)
xG 0.05snapClip(opens nhl.com)
2–1 TBL1st 10:06+17.264%
Brayden Point(2)PP
N. Kucherov (10), C. D'Astous (4)
xG 0.44backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
3–1 TBL1st 12:42+14.780%
Dylan Guenther(5)PP
M. Sergachev (11), C. Keller (11)
xG 0.10slapClip(opens nhl.com)
3–2 TBL1st 17:39+15.134%
2nd
Conor Geekie(2)
S. Sabourin (1)
xG 0.25wristClip(opens nhl.com)
4–2 TBL2nd 05:32+15.884%
Anders Lee(3)
M. Weegar (2), V. Trocheck (3)
xG 0.09tip-inClip(opens nhl.com)
4–3 TBL2nd 14:39+16.329%
Dmitri Simashev(1)
A. Peeke (3), V. Trocheck (4)
xG 0.08snapClip(opens nhl.com)
4–4 Tied2nd 17:02+24.552%
OT
Dmitri Simashev(2)
B. Hayton (7), K. Vejmelka (1)
xG 0.24wristClip(opens nhl.com)
4–5 UTAOT 01:44+48.8100%

Shots

Shooters

TBL4.01 xG48 unblocked · 12 blocked48 unblocked · 12 blocked

UTA3.62 xG47 unblocked · 13 blocked47 unblocked · 13 blocked

Goal, taller = higher xGSavedMissedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

TBLUTA4Goals54.01xG3.6233Shots2848Unblocked4760Attempts607High danger71/3Power play1/329Faceoffs4523Hits2613Blocks122Takeaways312Giveaways158PIM8

Skaters

Player

Player
38B. HagelBrandon HagelL	22:51	0	0	0	7	11	0.48	−0.48	1	1	0	0	—	0	-3
74J. CarlsonJohn CarlsonD	21:41	0	0	0	0	6	0.16	−0.16	1	0	0	1	—	0	-1
81E. CernakErik CernakD	20:58	0	1	1	1	1	0.00	−0.00	0	1	0	3	—	0	+2
51C. D'AstousCharle-Edouard D'AstousD	20:06	0	1	1	2	5	0.11	−0.11	1	1	0	2	—	2	0
86N. KucherovNikita KucherovR	20:02	0	1	1	3	6	0.45	−0.45	0	0	0	0	—	2	-1
90J. MoserJ.J. MoserD	20:01	0	0	0	2	5	0.36	−0.36	2	2	0	0	—	0	-1
71A. CirelliAnthony CirelliC	19:46	0	0	0	2	2	0.12	−0.12	0	0	2	1	43%	0	-2
59J. GuentzelJake GuentzelC	19:32	1	0	1	3	4	0.33	+0.67	0	0	0	1	17%	0	0
21B. PointBrayden PointC	18:34	1	0	1	2	6	1.01	−0.01	0	0	0	0	40%	0	-1
27R. McDonaghRyan McDonaghD	18:30	0	1	1	1	2	0.04	−0.04	1	1	0	0	—	0	+1
93G. GoncalvesGage GoncalvesC	16:25	0	0	0	2	2	0.22	−0.22	3	1	0	1	—	0	-1
78E. LillebergEmil LillebergD	15:26	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1	0	0	0	—	2	-2
29P. HolmbergPontus HolmbergR	14:11	1	0	1	3	4	0.20	+0.80	0	1	0	0	40%	0	+1
95I. MikheyevIlya MikheyevR	13:17	0	0	0	2	2	0.16	−0.16	3	0	0	1	—	0	+1
94C. GeekieConor GeekieC	10:09	1	0	1	3	3	0.36	+0.64	0	2	0	0	25%	0	+1
49S. SabourinScott SabourinR	9:26	0	1	1	0	1	0.00	0.00	5	1	0	1	—	0	+1
28Z. GirgensonsZemgus GirgensonsC	9:06	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	1	0	0	67%	0	+1
25J. VielJeffrey VielL	8:51	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	5	1	0	0	0%	2	+1
TBL total		4	5	9	33	60	4.01	−0.01	23	13	2	11	39%	8

Pony score

Incredible9.0+Great7.5+Good6.0+Average4.0+Below avg2.5+HorribleMethod

Forwards

Holmberg7.7

Geekie7.5

Point7.4

Sabourin7.1

Guentzel6.9

Kucherov5.8

Girgensons5.1

Hagel4.9

Goncalves4.7

Mikheyev4.7

Viel3.8

Cirelli1.7

Defence

Cernak6.9

McDonagh6.1

D'Astous5.8

Moser5.6

Carlson4.0

Lilleberg1.5

Goalie

Hildeby3.5

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Hagel·Guentzel·Cirelli	9:31	17	8	12	40.0%	5	5	0	1	0.32	0.70	31.7%	−0.37	2	3	40%
Point·Goncalves·Kucherov	9:00	15	6	11	35.3%	2	3	0	1	0.22	0.61	26.1%	−0.40	5	2	71%
Viel·Geekie·Sabourin	7:35	13	7	6	53.8%	3	2	1	0	0.36	0.22	61.9%	+0.14	4	0	100%
Girgensons·Holmberg·Mikheyev	5:06	11	2	4	33.3%	2	1	1	0	0.06	0.14	29.8%	−0.08	1	3	25%
Goncalves·Holmberg·Mikheyev	3:08	7	2	1	66.7%	2	0	0	0	0.09	0.00	100.0%	+0.09	1	1	50%
Occasional · 6 groups
Hagel·Cirelli·Kucherov	1:41	7	2	5	28.6%	1	3	0	1	0.13	0.33	28.7%	−0.19	0	1	0%
Point·Guentzel·Kucherov	1:12	5	2	1	66.7%	2	1	1	0	0.17	0.07	72.0%	+0.11	2	1	67%
Hagel·Point·Guentzel	1:12	3	3	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.05	0.00	100.0%	+0.05	0	0	—
Hagel·Geekie·Sabourin	0:51	2	3	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.03	0.00	100.0%	+0.03	0	0	—
Guentzel·Cirelli·Kucherov	0:49	1	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.12	0.0%	−0.12	0	0	—
Hagel·Cirelli·Holmberg	0:31	2	2	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.14	0.00	100.0%	+0.14	0	0	—
Other 43 brief groups	7:45		7	7	50.0%	7	4	0	0	0.71	0.44	61.5%	+0.27
TBL 5v5	48:21		44	48	47.8%	27	20	3	3	2.28	2.62	46.6%	−0.34

Goalies

Dennis Hildeby

TBL · 61:44

Saves: 23/28
SV%: .821
GAA: 4.86
xGA: 3.62
GSAx: −1.38

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	20/24	.833	3.08	−0.92
Power play	2/3	.667	0.47	−0.53
Shorthanded	1/1	1.000	0.06	+0.06
High danger	4/5	.800	1.30	+0.30

Karel Vejmelka

UTA · 61:44

Saves: 29/33
SV%: .879
GAA: 3.89
xGA: 4.01
GSAx: +0.01

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	25/28	.893	2.58	−0.42
Power play	2/3	.667	1.41	+0.41
Shorthanded	2/2	1.000	0.02	+0.02
High danger	2/4	.500	1.68	−0.32

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Tampa Bay Lightning

Minutes

21:41Carlson
20:58Cernak
20:06D'Astous
20:01Moser
18:30McDonagh
15:26Lilleberg

22:51Hagel
20:02Kucherov
19:46Cirelli
19:32Guentzel
18:34Point
16:25Goncalves
14:11Holmberg
13:17Mikheyev
10:09Geekie
9:26Sabourin
9:06Girgensons
8:51Viel

Matchups

Full game

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareTBLUTAGoalHard matchEdge bars = skater 5v5 total

Faceoffs

Both teams · pick a taker to focus

29–4539%

D 32%8–17N 50%12–12O 36%9–16 4 won into a shot

UTA attacks817TBL DZ 32% UTA OZ

Neutral1212TBL NZ 50% UTA NZ

TBL attacks916TBL OZ 36% UTA DZ

45–2961%

D 64%16–9N 50%12–12O 68%17–8 11 won into a shot

Bead = draw, winner’s colourClockwise from the top in game order Shot attempt within 10sHover a zone for its draws · click a taker to focus

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

MoserD2 O6
CarlsonD3 O6
D'AstousD1 O2
LillebergD1 O0
McDonaghD10 O1
CernakD9 O0
KucherovD3 O9
PointD4 O9
GoncalvesD1 O6
GeekieD0 O5
SabourinD0 O4
GuentzelD3 O7
VielD0 O3
CirelliD8 O6
HolmbergD4 O2
GirgensonsD4 O1
MikheyevD5 O2
HagelD7 O3

Shift starts · darker = later period