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Accuracy
Predictions
No pregame pick (No pregame snapshot before puck drop) · 2
- Sep 29
MTL @ TOR
- Sep 29
FLA @ CAR
Model report
Live picks · Sep 29–Nov 14
Vs marketBETTERVs homeBETTER
Picks right64.5%+0.8 ptsvs mkt (better)185-102 · CI 59–70
Graded311311 MKT
| vs | n | Acc | Brier (lower is better) | LL (lower is better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pony xG | 308 | 63.5% | 0.222 | 0.6335 (best) |
| Prev. model | 3 | 50.0% | 0.275 | 0.7476 |
| Site model · MKT | 311 | 63.3% | 0.222 | 0.6346 |
| Market (no vig) | 311 | 62.5% | 0.224 | 0.6387 |
| Home rate53.6% | 311 | 55.0% | 0.248 | 0.6885 |
| Coin flip | — | — | 0.250 | 0.6931 |
By confidence
- 50–55games: 7355%expected 53, 95% interval 43 to 66%
- 55–60games: 7958%expected 57, 95% interval 47 to 68%
- 60–65games: 5768%expected 63, 95% interval 56 to 79%
- 65+games: 7877%expected 71, 95% interval 66 to 85%
Calibration
| Bin | Games | Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20–30% | 11 | 27.1% | 27.3% |
| 30–40% | 29 | 36.1% | 27.6% |
| 40–50% | 74 | 45.4% | 43.2% |
| 50–60% | 103 | 54.4% | 56.3% |
| 60–70% | 63 | 64.5% | 68.3% |
| 70–80% | 25 | 73.6% | 84.0% |
| 80–90% | 6 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
Rolling log loss
Best calls
- Nov 5
CHI 1@
TBL 4PickedTBL85%, correct - Oct 17
VAN 2@TBL 4PickedTBL83%, correct - Nov 7VAN 2@
EDM 4PickedEDM83%, correct - Oct 8VAN 2@CAR 7PickedCAR83%, correct
- Nov 7CHI 2@CAR 9PickedCAR82%, correct
Worst misses
- Oct 27VAN 6@
ANA 5OTPickedANA74%, wrong - Sep 29VAN 6@EDM 5OTPickedEDM72%, wrong
- Oct 10TOR 6@
COL 3PickedCOL72%, wrong - Oct 19COL 2@
PHI 3PickedCOL71%, wrong - Nov 5
NSH 3@COL 2OTPickedCOL71%, wrong