Accuracy

Report card

Live picks · Sep 29

Too early

Picks right50.0%1-1

Log loss0.7476COIN 0.6931

Brier0.2753COIN 0.2500

Graded33 MKT

Model versus baselines for 2026-27. Lower Brier and log loss are better.
vs	n	Acc	Brier (lower is better)	LL (lower is better)
Prev. model	3	50.0%	0.275	0.7476
Market (no vig)	3	50.0%	0.294	0.7932
Home rate53.6%	3	66.7%	0.239	0.6716
Coin flip	—	—	0.250	0.6931

Best calls

Sep 29CHI 2@VGK 5PickedVGK75%, correct

Worst misses

Sep 29VAN 6@EDM 5OTPickedEDM72%, wrong

Picks

No pregame pick (No pregame snapshot before puck drop) · 2

Sep 29MTL @ TOR
Sep 29FLA @ CAR

Bet ledger

Gate closed (Bet sizes are hidden: the model has not yet proven an edge over the betting market. · Backtest ROI 95% CI lower bound -9.5% is not above -2%. · Backtest closing-line value -5.20% is not positive. · Only 0 graded games with market odds were predicted by the current model (logit-elo) so far (3 graded in 2026-27 in all); need 200 to compare it with the market.)

Record

1-0

n=1

Profit

+0.15u

0.4u staked

ROI

—

CLV

−4.1%

n=1

Units

Bets

Info only (For information and entertainment only. Past results do not predict future results. New bet suggestions are hidden while the model has not proven an edge over the market; graded bets keep their stakes. · 1 unit = 1% of bankroll ($5 in the SiteHistory snapshots) · Source: last pregame SiteHistory snapshot per NHL gameId; results from NHL final scores) · 21+ · 1-800-GAMBLER