TBL @ MIN 4–3 · 2026-11-07

Tampa BayTBLLightning4

Final/OTNov 72026-11-07

Team	1	2	3	OT	SOG
TBL	0	1	2	1	34
MIN	2	0	1	0	22

Grand Casino Arena

MinnesotaMINWild3

CallNo lean · 42% MIN

Star 1N. Kucherov1G 1A
Star 2J. Guentzel2G 1A
Star 3M. Shabanov2G 0A

Closing linesDraftKings

-135Moneyline+114-1.5 +180Puck line+1.5 -218O -115Total 6.5U -105+115RegulationTie +320 +165

Season odds

98%98%±0.0Playoffs98%99%+0.316%14%−2.1Cup7.6%7.3%−0.3

Story

– / 20

Result TBL 4–3 OTCall No lean · TBL 58%Market TBL 55%xG 3.69–2.07 · deserved TBL 76%Swing Kucherov +47 OT 3:23Method

Goals and penalties with MIN win probability
Time	Event	MIN win before	MIN win after
1st 0:55	Goal MIN · B. Coleman	42%	59%
1st 1:46	TBL penalty · G. Goncalves · too many men on the ice · 2 min
1st 2:58	Goal MIN · M. Shabanov (PP)	59%	74%
1st 9:42	MIN penalty · N. Foligno · roughing · 2 min
1st 9:42	MIN penalty · M. Foligno · fighting · 5 min
1st 9:42	TBL penalty · S. Sabourin · fighting · 5 min
1st 17:24	TBL penalty · J. Viel · interference · 2 min
2nd 1:14	TBL penalty · J. Guentzel · slashing · 2 min
2nd 5:53	MIN penalty · K. Kaprizov · cross checking · 2 min
2nd 5:53	TBL penalty · J. Moser · cross checking · 2 min
2nd 12:56	MIN penalty · R. Hartman · unsportsmanlike conduct · 2 min
2nd 12:56	MIN penalty · R. Hartman · roughing · 2 min
2nd 16:34	Goal TBL · J. Guentzel (PP)	87%	70%
2nd 17:23	MIN penalty · Q. Hughes · high sticking · 2 min
3rd 6:49	Goal MIN · M. Shabanov	77%	94%
3rd 13:44	Goal TBL · J. Guentzel	98%	86%
3rd 14:37	MIN penalty · B. Coleman · holding · 2 min
3rd 16:29	Goal TBL · C. D'Astous (PP)	91%	47%
OT 2:30	MIN penalty · M. Boldy · tripping · 2 min
OT 3:23	Goal TBL · N. Kucherov (PP)	47%	0%

On ice · final horn

TBL4 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
21B. PointC	0:53	21:55	21	0	2	2	2	4	0	0	0	7-2
59J. GuentzelC	2:19	24:34	22	2	0	2	7	10	2	1	1	3-4
86N. KucherovR	0:48	25:31	25	0	1	1	8	19	0	0	0	–
74J. CarlsonD	0:53	22:12	22	0	1	1	1	5	0	1	0	–
35D. HildebyG		63:15	SA22GA3SV%.864xGA2.07GSAx−0.93

MIN3 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
14J. Eriksson EkC	0:53	19:03	27	0	1	1	2	4	0	0	0	10-12
3O. MaattaD	0:53	22:20	25	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	1	–
25J. BrodinD	0:53	26:50	29	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	6	–
31C. PickardG		63:16	SA33GA3SV%.909xGA3.59GSAx+0.59

Goals

1st
Blake Coleman(5)
O. Maatta (4), Q. Hughes (20)
xG 0.08wristClip(opens nhl.com)
0–1 MIN1st 00:55+16.259%
Maxim Shabanov(7)PP
J. Eriksson Ek (11), K. Kaprizov (15)
xG 0.17backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
0–2 MIN1st 02:58+14.974%
2nd
Jake Guentzel(9)PP
C. D'Astous (7), N. Kucherov (17)
xG 0.03slapClip(opens nhl.com)
1–2 MIN2nd 16:34+17.430%
3rd
Maxim Shabanov(8)
Unassisted
xG 0.18wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–3 MIN3rd 06:49+16.194%
Jake Guentzel(10)
B. Point (10), C. D'Astous (8)
xG 0.08tip-inClip(opens nhl.com)
2–3 MIN3rd 13:44+11.714%
Charle-Edouard D'Astous(3)PP6v4
J. Carlson (4), B. Point (11)
xG 0.05slapClip(opens nhl.com)
3–3 Tied3rd 16:29+44.653%
OT
Nikita Kucherov(5)PP
J. Guentzel (8), J. Carlson (5)
xG 0.10wristClip(opens nhl.com)
4–3 TBLOT 03:23+47.0100%

Shots

Shooters

TBL3.69 xG59 unblocked · 25 blocked59 unblocked · 25 blocked

MIN2.07 xG31 unblocked · 11 blocked31 unblocked · 11 blocked

Goal, taller = higher xGSavedMissedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

TBLMIN4Goals33.69xG2.0734Shots2259Unblocked3184Attempts425High danger43/6Power play1/334Faceoffs2619Hits2111Blocks256Takeaways412Giveaways1113PIM19

Skaters

Player

Player
86N. KucherovNikita KucherovR	25:31	1	1	2	9	20	1.15	−0.15	0	0	3	2	—	0	0
51C. D'AstousCharle-Edouard D'AstousD	24:38	1	2	3	3	4	0.33	+0.67	1	2	0	1	—	0	0
59J. GuentzelJake GuentzelC	24:34	2	1	3	7	10	0.61	+1.39	1	0	1	2	43%	2	0
74J. CarlsonJohn CarlsonD	22:12	0	2	2	1	5	0.18	−0.18	1	0	0	1	—	0	+1
21B. PointBrayden PointC	21:55	0	2	2	2	4	0.30	−0.30	0	0	0	0	78%	0	0
77V. HedmanVictor HedmanD	20:52	0	0	0	0	4	0.02	−0.02	0	2	0	0	—	0	-1
90J. MoserJ.J. MoserD	19:28	0	0	0	0	4	0.03	−0.03	0	1	0	2	—	2	-1
81E. CernakErik CernakD	18:27	0	0	0	0	2	0.05	−0.05	1	2	1	0	—	0	-1
28Z. GirgensonsZemgus GirgensonsC	17:10	0	0	0	1	2	0.05	−0.05	2	2	0	0	64%	0	0
38B. HagelBrandon HagelL	16:46	0	0	0	0	4	0.42	−0.42	0	0	1	0	50%	0	0
27R. McDonaghRyan McDonaghD	16:02	0	0	0	0	4	0.03	−0.03	0	1	0	0	—	0	0
71A. CirelliAnthony CirelliC	13:41	0	0	0	2	3	0.03	−0.03	1	0	0	1	25%	0	0
29P. HolmbergPontus HolmbergR	13:25	0	0	0	3	4	0.18	−0.18	1	0	0	0	—	0	0
95I. MikheyevIlya MikheyevR	13:25	0	0	0	1	4	0.09	−0.09	0	0	0	0	—	0	0
93G. GoncalvesGage GoncalvesC	10:44	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	1	—	0	0
94C. GeekieConor GeekieC	9:35	0	0	0	3	5	0.16	−0.16	2	0	0	0	63%	0	-1
49S. SabourinScott SabourinR	8:05	0	0	0	1	2	0.02	−0.02	5	0	0	0	—	5	-1
25J. VielJeffrey VielL	7:28	0	0	0	1	1	0.02	−0.02	4	0	0	2	0%	2	-1
TBL total		4	8	12	34	84	3.69	+0.31	19	10	6	12	57%	11

Pony score

Incredible9.0+Great7.5+Good6.0+Average4.0+Below avg2.5+HorribleMethod

Forwards

Guentzel9.0

Kucherov7.8

Point7.2

Geekie6.2

Girgensons5.3

Viel5.1

Sabourin5.0

Mikheyev5.0

Holmberg4.9

Hagel4.3

Cirelli3.8

Goncalves3.3

Defence

D'Astous9.8

Carlson8.0

Moser6.8

Cernak5.8

McDonagh5.5

Hedman5.4

Goalie

Hildeby3.8

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Girgensons·Holmberg·Mikheyev	7:29	18	11	5	68.8%	6	2	0	0	0.35	0.01	96.5%	+0.33	4	1	80%
Point·Guentzel·Kucherov	7:22	11	12	8	60.0%	3	5	1	1	0.27	0.45	37.4%	−0.18	1	0	100%
Viel·Geekie·Sabourin	6:38	11	11	2	84.6%	6	2	0	1	0.23	0.19	54.4%	+0.04	4	0	100%
Hagel·Cirelli·Goncalves	4:23	10	5	3	62.5%	0	1	0	0	0.03	0.09	22.7%	−0.06	0	0	—
Hagel·Cirelli·Kucherov	3:27	5	6	1	85.7%	2	0	0	0	0.48	0.00	100.0%	+0.48	1	1	50%
Point·Guentzel·Goncalves	3:06	5	5	1	83.3%	2	1	0	0	0.35	0.12	75.4%	+0.24	0	0	—
Occasional · 10 groups
Cirelli·Holmberg·Mikheyev	0:57	5	2	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.03	0.00	100.0%	+0.03	0	0	—
Hagel·Guentzel·Cirelli	0:55	2	4	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.05	0.00	100.0%	+0.05	0	0	—
Hagel·Cirelli·Holmberg	0:48	5	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Point·Goncalves·Kucherov	0:46	1	1	1	50.0%	0	1	0	0	0.03	0.01	65.4%	+0.01	1	0	100%
Hagel·Girgensons·Kucherov	0:45	4	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	1	0%
Hagel·Point·Goncalves	0:40	3	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Girgensons·Kucherov·Mikheyev	0:39	3	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Hagel·Geekie·Sabourin	0:34	1	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	1	0%
Guentzel·Geekie·Sabourin	0:33	4	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Girgensons·Guentzel·Mikheyev	0:33	1	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.04	0.0%	−0.04	0	0	—
Other 34 brief groups	3:36		1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00		0.00
TBL 5v5	43:11		59	24	71.1%	20	13	1	2	1.81	0.91	66.6%	+0.90

Goalies

Dennis Hildeby

TBL · 63:15

Saves: 19/22
SV%: .864
GAA: 2.85
xGA: 2.07
GSAx: −0.93

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	13/15	.867	1.54	−0.46
Power play	4/5	.800	0.51	−0.49
Shorthanded	2/2	1.000	0.02	+0.02
High danger	1/3	.333	0.70	−1.30

Calvin Pickard

MIN · 63:16

Saves: 30/34
SV%: .882
GAA: 3.79
xGA: 3.69
GSAx: −0.31

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	19/20	.950	1.81	+0.81
Power play	11/14	.786	1.71	−1.29
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.17	+0.17
High danger	2/2	1.000	0.94	+0.94

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Tampa Bay Lightning

Minutes

24:38D'Astous
22:12Carlson
20:52Hedman
19:28Moser
18:27Cernak
16:02McDonagh

25:31Kucherov
24:34Guentzel
21:55Point
17:10Girgensons
16:46Hagel
13:41Cirelli
13:25Holmberg
13:25Mikheyev
10:44Goncalves
9:35Geekie
8:05Sabourin
7:28Viel

Matchups

Full game

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareTBLMINGoalHard matchEdge bars = skater 5v5 total

Faceoffs

Both teams · pick a taker to focus

34–2657%

D 54%7–6N 56%9–7O 58%18–13 13 won into a shot

MIN attacks76TBL DZ 54% MIN OZ

Neutral97TBL NZ 56% MIN NZ

TBL attacks1813TBL OZ 58% MIN DZ

26–3443%

D 42%13–18N 44%7–9O 46%6–7 3 won into a shot

Bead = draw, winner’s colourClockwise from the top in game order Shot attempt within 10sHover a zone for its draws · click a taker to focus

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

CarlsonD0 O5
D'AstousD1 O5
MoserD3 O4
McDonaghD3 O3
HedmanD3 O3
CernakD4 O3
PointD0 O7
KucherovD2 O7
VielD0 O4
SabourinD0 O3
GuentzelD1 O4
GeekieD0 O3
HolmbergD1 O3
CirelliD2 O3
GoncalvesD0 O1
GirgensonsD5 O5
HagelD3 O2
MikheyevD5 O4

Shift starts · darker = later period