NYI @ NSH 4–3 · 2026-10-27

New YorkNYIIslanders4

Final/SOOct 272026-10-27

Team	1	2	3	OT	SOG
NYI	2	1	0	0	27
NSH	0	2	1	0	23

Bridgestone Arena

NashvilleNSHPredators3

CallNo lean · 54% NSH

Star 1K. Palmieri0G 0A
Star 2F. Forsberg1G 1A
Star 3B. Horvat1G 0A

Closing linesDraftKings

+102Moneyline-122+1.5 -250Puck line-1.5 +205O -120Total 5.5U +100+150RegulationTie +295 +130-1101st period-120+1881st · 3-wayTie +168 +180

Season odds

13%15%+2.0Playoffs22%24%+1.60.1%0.1%±0.0Cup0.0%0.1%+0.1

Story

– / 16

Result NYI 4–3 SOCall No lean · NSH 54%Market NSH 53%xG 4.20–4.30 · deserved NSH 52%Swing O'Reilly +29 3rd 4:16Method

Goals and penalties with NSH win probability
Time	Event	NSH win before	NSH win after
1st 1:16	NYI penalty · M. Kessel · high sticking · 2 min
1st 1:47	NSH penalty · R. Josi · interference · 2 min
1st 3:07	Goal NYI · A. Duclair	54%	37%
1st 8:07	Goal NYI · B. Schenn	36%	21%
1st 8:56	NSH penalty · N. Hoglander · too many men on the ice · 2 min
1st 10:31	NYI penalty · A. Duclair · interference · 2 min
1st 13:07	NSH penalty · M. Wood · slashing · 2 min
1st 15:32	NYI penalty · O. Palat · interference · 2 min
2nd 1:08	Goal NYI · B. Horvat	17%	8%
2nd 9:28	NYI penalty · B. Schenn · hooking · 2 min
2nd 9:42	Goal NSH · F. Forsberg (PP)	5%	14%
2nd 13:02	Goal NSH · A. Kerfoot	13%	29%
3rd 1:55	NSH penalty · R. O'Reilly · tripping · 2 min
3rd 4:16	Goal NSH · R. O'Reilly	23%	52%
3rd 10:44	NYI penalty · M. Kessel · interference · 2 min
OT 2:17	NSH penalty · F. Forsberg · tripping · 2 min

On ice · final horn

NYI4 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
10B. SchennC	0:29	19:13	22	1	0	1	1	3	2	3	2	5-5
11A. DuclairL	0:24	16:09	27	1	0	1	2	5	2	0	0	–
48M. SchaeferD	4:58	32:14	29	0	1	1	2	9	0	1	2	–
77T. DeAngeloD	0:37	16:39	24	0	1	1	2	4	0	0	1	–
40S. VarlamovG		64:04	SA23GA3SV%.870xGA4.25GSAx+1.25

NSH4 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
91S. StamkosC	0:31	20:40	20	0	1	1	1	4	0	1	0	5-4
9F. ForsbergL	0:41	22:45	25	1	1	2	4	9	2	3	1	0-1
2A. WilsbyD	0:38	22:38	23	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	2	–
59R. JosiD	0:39	26:05	26	0	0	0	2	8	2	1	1	–
74J. SarosG		64:58	SA27GA3SV%.889xGA4.20GSAx+1.20

Goals

1st
Anthony Duclair(3)
J. Pageau (5), T. DeAngelo (3)
xG 0.06tip-inClip(opens nhl.com)
1–0 NYI1st 03:07+16.663%
Brayden Schenn(4)
O. Palat (2)
xG 0.20backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
2–0 NYI1st 08:07+14.779%
2nd
Bo Horvat(6)
M. Schaefer (9), S. Holmstrom (2)
xG 0.16snapClip(opens nhl.com)
3–0 NYI2nd 01:08+9.792%
Filip Forsberg(3)PP
J. Marchessault (3), S. Stamkos (8)
xG 0.13wristClip(opens nhl.com)
3–1 NYI2nd 09:42+8.814%
Alexander Kerfoot(2)
N. Hoglander (2)
xG 0.07wristClip(opens nhl.com)
3–2 NYI2nd 13:02+16.429%
3rd
Ryan O'Reilly(7)
D. Hunt (1), F. Forsberg (10)
xG 0.52backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
3–3 Tied3rd 04:16+29.552%

Shootout

NYIWins

2–0

NSH

2 rounds · NSH first

NYI shootersSaros 0/2 SV

K. PalmieriGoalsnapGoalClip(opens nhl.com)
Rd 11–0
R. O'ReillyMisswristMiss
B. HorvatWinnerwristGoalWinnerClip(opens nhl.com)
Rd 22–0
F. ForsbergMisswristMiss

NSH shootersVarlamov 0/0 SV

Shots

Shooters

NYI4.20 xG49 unblocked · 18 blocked49 unblocked · 18 blocked

NSH4.30 xG40 unblocked · 22 blocked40 unblocked · 22 blocked

Goal, taller = higher xGSavedMissedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

NYINSH3Goals34.20xG4.3027Shots2349Unblocked4067Attempts627High danger60/5Power play1/533Faceoffs2323Hits2022Blocks182Takeaways56Giveaways1910PIM10

Skaters

Player

Player
48M. SchaeferMatthew SchaeferD	32:16	0	1	1	2	9	0.35	−0.35	1	2	0	1	—	0	0
14B. HorvatBo HorvatC	26:04	1	0	1	2	7	0.62	+0.38	2	0	1	0	52%	0	+1
92S. HolmstromSimon HolmstromR	25:02	0	1	1	3	7	0.56	−0.56	0	1	0	1	—	0	+1
21K. PalmieriKyle PalmieriC	20:35	0	0	0	2	6	0.51	−0.51	1	0	0	0	—	0	+1
8L. StanleyLogan StanleyD	19:54	0	0	0	0	2	0.14	−0.14	0	3	0	0	—	0	+2
10B. SchennBrayden SchennC	19:15	1	0	1	1	3	0.28	+0.72	3	2	0	0	50%	2	+1
3A. PelechAdam PelechD	19:13	0	0	0	2	4	0.04	−0.04	1	1	0	1	—	0	-2
6R. PulockRyan PulockD	18:00	0	0	0	2	3	0.05	−0.05	0	5	0	0	—	0	+2
51E. HeinemanEmil HeinemanL	18:00	0	0	0	4	6	0.53	−0.53	5	1	0	1	—	0	-1
44J. PageauJean-Gabriel PageauC	16:55	0	1	1	1	2	0.24	−0.24	4	1	0	0	71%	0	0
77T. DeAngeloTony DeAngeloD	16:41	0	1	1	2	4	0.07	−0.07	0	1	1	1	—	0	0
81O. PalatOndrej PalatL	16:38	0	1	1	1	3	0.16	−0.16	1	0	0	0	100%	2	-1
11A. DuclairAnthony DuclairL	16:11	1	0	1	2	5	0.32	+0.68	0	0	0	0	—	2	0
38V. EklundVictor EklundR	14:00	0	0	0	3	4	0.31	−0.31	4	1	0	0	—	0	0
53C. CizikasCasey CizikasC	10:23	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1	0	0	0	60%	0	0
24S. MayfieldScott MayfieldD	9:06	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	3	0	0	—	0	0
26M. ChaffeeMitchell ChaffeeR	7:35	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	1	0%	0	0
4M. KesselMatthew KesselD	5:31	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0	—	4	0
NYI total		3	5	8	27	67	4.20	−1.20	23	21	2	6	59%	10

Pony score

Incredible9.0+Great7.5+Good6.0+Average4.0+Below avg2.5+HorribleMethod

Forwards

Horvat7.4

Schenn6.5

Pageau6.2

Palat6.0

Duclair5.7

Eklund5.6

Chaffee4.9

Holmstrom4.9

Palmieri4.6

Cizikas4.4

Heineman2.6

Defence

Schaefer7.7

Stanley7.0

Pulock6.8

Mayfield6.8

DeAngelo5.8

Kessel2.2

Pelech0.9

Goalie

Varlamov6.8

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Horvat·Palmieri·Holmstrom	10:29	17	9	9	50.0%	4	2	1	0	0.66	0.22	75.0%	+0.44	3	0	100%
Duclair·Palat·Pageau	9:56	18	14	5	73.7%	5	3	0	1	0.79	1.14	41.0%	−0.35	3	1	75%
Heineman·Schenn·Eklund	9:44	16	12	14	46.2%	8	4	0	0	0.76	0.90	45.6%	−0.15	0	0	—
Occasional · 10 groups
Heineman·Cizikas·Chaffee	2:06	4	1	3	25.0%	1	1	0	0	0.00	0.17	1.4%	−0.17	1	0	100%
Palmieri·Cizikas·Chaffee	1:10	2	2	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.15	0.00	100.0%	+0.15	0	0	—
Duclair·Palat·Schenn	1:07	5	1	0	100.0%	1	0	1	0	0.20	0.00	100.0%	+0.20	0	0	—
Duclair·Cizikas·Chaffee	0:58	2	1	1	50.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.01	0.0%	−0.01	0	0	—
Pageau·Cizikas·Chaffee	0:57	2	1	1	50.0%	1	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	58.9%	+0.00	0	1	0%
Palat·Pageau·Cizikas	0:44	3	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	2	0%
Palmieri·Pageau·Holmstrom	0:41	3	0	4	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.10	0.0%	−0.10	0	0	—
Cizikas·Chaffee·Eklund	0:33	1	1	2	33.3%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.06	0.0%	−0.06	0	1	0%
Duclair·Schenn·Holmstrom	0:31	1	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Duclair·Heineman·Palat	0:12	1	0	3	0.0%	0	3	0	1	0.00	0.69	0.0%	−0.69	0	0	—
Other 40 brief groups	6:27		4	3	57.1%	2	1	0	0	0.35	0.01	98.4%	+0.34
NYI 5v5	45:35		46	45	50.5%	23	16	2	2	2.91	3.30	46.9%	−0.39

Goalies

Semyon Varlamov

NYI · 64:06

Saves: 20/23
SV%: .870
GAA: 2.81
xGA: 4.30
GSAx: +1.30

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	14/16	.875	3.40	+1.40
Power play	4/5	.800	0.68	−0.32
Shorthanded	2/2	1.000	0.21	+0.21
High danger	4/5	.800	2.08	+1.08

Juuse Saros

NSH · 65:00

Saves: 24/27
SV%: .889
GAA: 2.77
xGA: 4.20
GSAx: +1.20

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	21/24	.875	3.21	+0.21
Power play	3/3	1.000	0.99	+0.99
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	3/5	.600	1.33	−0.67

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

New York Islanders

Minutes

32:16Schaefer
19:54Stanley
19:13Pelech
18:00Pulock
16:41DeAngelo
9:06Mayfield
5:31Kessel

26:04Horvat
25:02Holmstrom
20:35Palmieri
19:15Schenn
18:00Heineman
16:55Pageau
16:38Palat
16:11Duclair
14:00Eklund
10:23Cizikas
7:35Chaffee

Matchups

Full game

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareNYINSHGoalHard matchEdge bars = skater 5v5 total

Faceoffs

Both teams · pick a taker to focus

33–2359%

D 80%12–3N 40%8–12O 62%13–8 5 won into a shot

NSH attacks123NYI DZ 80% NSH OZ

Neutral812NYI NZ 40% NSH NZ

NYI attacks138NYI OZ 62% NSH DZ

23–3341%

D 38%8–13N 60%12–8O 20%3–12 4 won into a shot

Bead = draw, winner’s colourClockwise from the top in game order Shot attempt within 10sHover a zone for its draws · click a taker to focus

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

SchaeferD4 O8
DeAngeloD1 O3
KesselD0 O0
MayfieldD1 O0
PulockD4 O1
PelechD4 O0
StanleyD5 O1
PalmieriD0 O7
HolmstromD3 O7
HorvatD3 O5
DuclairD2 O3
SchennD0 O0
PalatD3 O3
ChaffeeD1 O1
HeinemanD1 O1
EklundD1 O0
PageauD6 O3
CizikasD6 O1

Shift starts · darker = later period