CAR @ NYI 5–3 · 2026-11-05

CarolinaCARHurricanes5

FinalNov 52026-11-05

Team	1	2	3	SOG
CAR	2	1	2	39
NYI	0	3	0	27

UBS Arena

New YorkNYIIslanders3

CallNo lean · 37% NYI

Star 1W. Carrier1G 1A
Star 2A. Svechnikov1G 1A
Star 3B. Schenn1G 1A

Closing linesDraftKings

-198Moneyline+164-1.5 +130Puck line+1.5 -155O +114Total 6.5U -135-115RegulationTie +330 +220

Season odds

99%100%+0.5Playoffs18%18%−0.116%20%+3.9Cup0.1%0.1%±0.0

Story

– / 16

Result CAR 5–3Call No lean · CAR 63%Market CAR 65%xG 3.63–3.33 · deserved CAR 55%Swing Carrier +36 3rd 14:52Method

Goals and penalties with NYI win probability
Time	Event	NYI win before	NYI win after
1st 0:57	Goal CAR · L. Stankoven	37%	23%
1st 3:20	Goal CAR · J. Kotkaniemi	23%	12%
1st 3:35	CAR penalty · S. Walker · holding the stick · 2 min
2nd 3:40	Goal NYI · M. Chaffee	9%	21%
2nd 5:44	Goal NYI · B. Schenn	21%	40%
2nd 6:44	Goal CAR · A. Svechnikov	40%	21%
2nd 7:23	CAR penalty · S. Gostisbehere · holding · 2 min
2nd 17:13	Goal NYI · V. Eklund	18%	41%
2nd 19:25	NYI penalty · A. Pelech · holding · 2 min
3rd 4:21	CAR penalty · J. Blake · tripping · 2 min
3rd 4:47	NYI penalty · B. Schenn · holding the stick · 2 min
3rd 8:02	CAR penalty · M. Jankowski · high sticking · 2 min
3rd 14:52	Goal CAR · W. Carrier	44%	8%
3rd 19:09	Goal CAR · J. Chatfield (EN)	2%	1%
OT 0:00	CAR penalty · J. Välimäki · misconduct · 10 min
OT 0:00	NYI penalty · K. MacLean · misconduct · 10 min

On ice · final horn

CAR5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
82J. KotkaniemiC	0:06	8:53	13	1	0	1	3	4	0	2	0	3-3
50E. RobinsonL	0:06	10:20	15	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	–
71T. HallL	0:06	10:30	14	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	2	–
4S. GostisbehereD	0:51	16:53	22	0	0	0	3	3	2	0	1	–
8J. VälimäkiD	0:51	12:44	18	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	–
32B. BussiG		60:00	SA27GA3SV%.889xGA3.33GSAx+0.33

NYI5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
32K. MacLeanC	0:51	10:22	14	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	–
53C. CizikasC	0:51	10:04	13	0	1	1	1	3	0	1	1	7-5
26M. ChaffeeR	0:51	10:31	14	1	0	1	3	4	0	3	0	–
4M. KesselD	0:51	14:13	18	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	–
77T. DeAngeloD	0:51	19:56	27	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	–
40S. VarlamovG		58:29	SA38GA4SV%.895xGA3.33GSAx−0.67

Goals

1st
Logan Stankoven(11)
J. Blake (14), K. Miller (4)
xG 0.12snapClip(opens nhl.com)
1–0 CAR1st 00:57+14.377%
Jesperi Kotkaniemi(5)
J. Martinook (6), J. Chatfield (4)
xG 0.10deflectedClip(opens nhl.com)
2–0 CAR1st 03:20+10.688%
2nd
Mitchell Chaffee(1)
M. Schaefer (11), C. Cizikas (2)
xG 0.09tip-inClip(opens nhl.com)
2–1 CAR2nd 03:40+11.821%
Brayden Schenn(5)
V. Eklund (3), M. Kessel (2)
xG 0.10wrap-aroundClip(opens nhl.com)
2–2 Tied2nd 05:44+18.840%
Andrei Svechnikov(7)
S. Aho (13), W. Carrier (9)
xG 0.12backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
3–2 CAR2nd 06:44+19.079%
Victor Eklund(4)
B. Schenn (6), E. Heineman (5)
xG 0.12slapClip(opens nhl.com)
3–3 Tied2nd 17:13+22.641%
3rd
William Carrier(1)
A. Svechnikov (9), S. Aho (14)
xG 0.27backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
4–3 CAR3rd 14:52+36.292%
Jalen Chatfield(2)EN
Unassisted
xG 0.30snapClip(opens nhl.com)
5–3 CAR3rd 19:09+1.199%

Shots

Shooters

CAR3.63 xG51 unblocked · 13 blocked51 unblocked · 13 blocked

NYI3.33 xG39 unblocked · 24 blocked39 unblocked · 24 blocked

Goal, taller = higher xGSavedMissedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

CARNYI5Goals33.63xG3.3339Shots2751Unblocked3964Attempts637High danger60/2Power play0/421Faceoffs4016Hits2624Blocks138Takeaways523Giveaways1918PIM14

Skaters

Player

Player
74J. SlavinJaccob SlavinD	25:52	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	0	4	1	4	—	0	0
5J. ChatfieldJalen ChatfieldD	22:57	1	1	2	1	2	0.30	+0.70	0	1	1	0	—	0	0
20S. AhoSebastian AhoC	22:09	0	2	2	4	6	0.26	−0.26	0	0	0	1	30%	0	+3
26S. WalkerSean WalkerD	20:24	0	0	0	2	2	0.07	−0.07	2	2	0	2	—	2	+3
19K. MillerK'Andre MillerD	19:18	0	1	1	2	5	0.06	−0.06	0	0	1	2	—	0	+3
37A. SvechnikovAndrei SvechnikovR	18:11	1	1	2	7	9	0.70	+0.30	0	0	0	2	—	0	+3
4S. GostisbehereShayne GostisbehereD	16:53	0	0	0	3	3	0.06	−0.06	0	1	0	3	—	2	-1
53J. BlakeJackson BlakeR	16:26	0	1	1	2	6	0.33	−0.33	0	2	1	0	—	2	+1
27N. EhlersNikolaj EhlersL	15:46	0	0	0	5	7	0.62	−0.62	0	2	1	0	—	0	+1
48J. MartinookJordan MartinookL	15:06	0	1	1	2	2	0.12	−0.12	1	4	1	1	25%	0	+1
24S. JarvisSeth JarvisR	15:05	0	0	0	0	2	0.06	−0.06	2	0	0	0	—	0	-2
22L. StankovenLogan StankovenC	14:13	1	0	1	3	4	0.31	+0.69	1	0	0	1	36%	0	+1
28W. CarrierWilliam CarrierL	13:53	1	1	2	2	3	0.35	+0.65	4	1	0	2	0%	0	+1
77M. JankowskiMark JankowskiL	13:20	0	0	0	1	3	0.16	−0.16	1	0	1	0	40%	2	-2
8J. VälimäkiJuuso VälimäkiD	12:44	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	0	3	0	0	—	10	-1
71T. HallTaylor HallL	10:30	0	0	0	2	4	0.10	−0.10	0	2	1	2	—	0	-2
50E. RobinsonEric RobinsonL	10:20	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	3	1	0	1	—	0	+1
82J. KotkaniemiJesperi KotkaniemiC	8:53	1	0	1	3	4	0.13	+0.87	2	0	0	0	50%	0	0
CAR total		5	8	13	39	64	3.63	+1.37	16	23	8	21	34%	18

Pony score

Incredible9.0+Great7.5+Good6.0+Average4.0+Below avg2.5+HorribleMethod

Forwards

Svechnikov8.2

Carrier7.7

Stankoven7.3

Martinook7.2

Kotkaniemi7.0

Aho6.6

Blake6.2

Hall5.1

Ehlers5.0

Robinson4.1

Jarvis3.8

Jankowski1.7

Defence

Miller6.8

Välimäki5.1

Walker4.5

Slavin4.4

Chatfield3.9

Gostisbehere2.5

Goalie

Bussi5.3

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Carrier·Aho·Svechnikov	11:55	18	16	6	72.7%	12	3	2	0	1.11	0.43	72.2%	+0.68	2	1	67%
Ehlers·Stankoven·Blake	10:56	19	13	11	54.2%	8	6	1	0	1.09	0.60	64.7%	+0.50	3	2	60%
Hall·Jankowski·Jarvis	7:19	10	10	8	55.6%	5	4	0	2	0.41	0.31	57.0%	+0.10	3	1	75%
Martinook·Robinson·Kotkaniemi	6:01	9	8	10	44.4%	6	3	1	0	0.26	0.50	34.1%	−0.24	0	2	0%
Occasional · 7 groups
Martinook·Jankowski·Jarvis	1:50	3	2	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Martinook·Hall·Kotkaniemi	0:52	4	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	1	0%
Robinson·Hall·Kotkaniemi	0:52	2	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	1	0	100%
Carrier·Martinook·Kotkaniemi	0:46	2	0	3	0.0%	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.09	0.0%	−0.09	0	0	—
Ehlers·Jankowski·Jarvis	0:45	1	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.0%	−0.00	0	0	—
Hall·Stankoven·Jarvis	0:37	3	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	1	0	100%
Robinson·Aho·Svechnikov	0:36	2	0	3	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.12	0.0%	−0.12	0	0	—
Other 40 brief groups	5:34		5	6	45.5%	4	3	0	0	0.19	0.48	28.6%	−0.29
CAR 5v5	48:03		56	49	53.3%	35	21	4	3	3.07	2.53	54.8%	+0.54

Goalies

Brandon Bussi

CAR · 60:00

Saves: 24/27
SV%: .889
GAA: 3.00
xGA: 3.33
GSAx: +0.33

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	22/25	.880	2.85	−0.15
Power play	2/2	1.000	0.48	+0.48
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	5/5	1.000	1.19	+1.19

Semyon Varlamov

NYI · 58:29

Saves: 34/38
SV%: .895
GAA: 4.10
xGA: 3.33
GSAx: −0.67

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	32/36	.889	3.10	−0.90
Power play	1/1	1.000	0.20	+0.20
Shorthanded	1/1	1.000	0.03	+0.03
High danger	4/5	.800	1.32	+0.32

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Carolina Hurricanes

Minutes

25:52Slavin
22:57Chatfield
20:24Walker
19:18Miller
16:53Gostisbehere
12:44Välimäki

22:09Aho
18:11Svechnikov
16:26Blake
15:46Ehlers
15:06Martinook
15:05Jarvis
14:13Stankoven
13:53Carrier
13:20Jankowski
10:30Hall
10:20Robinson
8:53Kotkaniemi

Matchups

Full game

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareCARNYIGoalHard matchEdge bars = skater 5v5 total

Faceoffs

Both teams · pick a taker to focus

21–4034%

D 32%7–15N 48%11–12O 19%3–13 3 won into a shot

NYI attacks715CAR DZ 32% NYI OZ

Neutral1112CAR NZ 48% NYI NZ

CAR attacks313CAR OZ 19% NYI DZ

40–2166%

D 81%13–3N 52%12–11O 68%15–7 10 won into a shot

Bead = draw, winner’s colourClockwise from the top in game order Shot attempt within 10sHover a zone for its draws · click a taker to focus

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

GostisbehereD0 O4
VälimäkiD1 O3
ChatfieldD5 O5
SlavinD6 O5
WalkerD6 O1
MillerD6 O1
HallD2 O5
JarvisD2 O5
StankovenD2 O4
BlakeD2 O3
EhlersD2 O2
SvechnikovD3 O3
JankowskiD4 O3
CarrierD1 O0
RobinsonD2 O1
KotkaniemiD3 O1
AhoD5 O2
MartinookD7 O0

Shift starts · darker = later period