TBL @ NSH 4–5 · 2026-10-31

Tampa BayTBLLightning4

Final/SOOct 312026-10-31

Team	1	2	3	OT	SOG
TBL	1	2	1	0	26
NSH	1	2	1	0	33

Bridgestone Arena

NashvilleNSHPredators5

CallNo lean · 37% NSH

Star 1S. Stamkos1G 0A
Star 2N. Kucherov0G 3A
Star 3A. Edstrom1G 0A

Closing linesDraftKings

-170Moneyline+142-1.5 +145Puck line+1.5 -175O +110Total 6.5U -130-105RegulationTie +320 +200

Season odds

98%98%−0.5Playoffs21%31%+10.917%16%−1.1Cup0.2%0.1%−0.1

Story

– / 14

Result NSH 5–4 SOCall No lean · TBL 64%Market TBL 61%xG 2.80–3.95 · deserved NSH 68%Swing Stamkos +28 3rd 7:27Method

Goals and penalties with NSH win probability
Time	Event	NSH win before	NSH win after
1st 6:23	TBL penalty · J. Moser · tripping · 2 min
1st 11:14	Goal NSH · R. Schaefer	38%	55%
1st 13:38	Goal TBL · J. Carlson	56%	38%
2nd 0:18	Goal TBL · J. Guentzel	39%	22%
2nd 0:45	Goal NSH · A. Edstrom	22%	39%
2nd 3:23	Goal TBL · V. Hedman	39%	21%
2nd 13:01	NSH penalty · J. Drury · hooking · 2 min
2nd 19:42	Goal NSH · J. Struble	18%	41%
3rd 1:06	NSH penalty · R. O'Reilly · tripping · 2 min
3rd 3:31	Goal TBL · C. Geekie	42%	16%
3rd 7:05	TBL penalty · S. Sabourin · hooking · 2 min
3rd 7:27	Goal NSH · S. Stamkos (PP)	14%	43%
3rd 11:05	TBL penalty · I. Mikheyev · hooking · 2 min
3rd 17:03	NSH penalty · A. Wilsby · delaying game puck over glass · 2 min

On ice · final horn

TBL3 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
17D. JamesC	0:19	11:22	17	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	3-7
95I. MikheyevR	0:19	13:26	22	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	–
51C. D'AstousD	0:19	25:07	22	0	1	1	0	1	0	4	3	–
88A. VasilevskiyG		64:42	SA33GA4SV%.879xGA3.95GSAx−0.05

NSH3 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
14A. KerfootC	0:19	18:54	25	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	4-5
18J. DruryC	0:19	18:21	23	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	2	7-4
76B. SkjeiD	0:19	20:05	28	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	2	–
29J. AnnunenG		64:34	SA26GA4SV%.846xGA2.80GSAx−1.20

Goals

1st
Reid Schaefer(1)
A. Kerfoot (4), N. Perbix (1)
xG 0.11wristClip(opens nhl.com)
0–1 NSH1st 11:14+17.755%
John Carlson(5)
N. Kucherov (12), C. D'Astous (5)
xG 0.04wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–1 Tied1st 13:38+18.262%
2nd
Jake Guentzel(8)
J. Carlson (3), N. Kucherov (13)
xG 0.05tip-inClip(opens nhl.com)
2–1 TBL2nd 00:18+17.178%
Adam Edstrom(5)
B. Skjei (4), N. Perbix (2)
xG 0.13snapClip(opens nhl.com)
2–2 Tied2nd 00:45+17.239%
Victor Hedman(3)
N. Kucherov (14), B. Point (8)
xG 0.16wristClip(opens nhl.com)
3–2 TBL2nd 03:23+17.879%
Jayden Struble(2)
A. Wilsby (6), F. Forsberg (11)
xG 0.03wristClip(opens nhl.com)
3–3 Tied2nd 19:42+23.341%
3rd
Conor Geekie(4)
J. Viel (2)
xG 0.13wristClip(opens nhl.com)
4–3 TBL3rd 03:31+25.484%
Steven Stamkos(8)PP
F. Forsberg (12), R. O'Reilly (8)
xG 0.24wristClip(opens nhl.com)
4–4 Tied3rd 07:27+28.143%

Shootout

TBL

0–1

NSHWins

4 rounds · sudden death · NSH first

TBL shootersAnnunen 3/3 SV

P. HolmbergMissbackhandMiss
Rd 10–0
F. ForsbergSavewristSave
B. PointSavewristSave
Rd 20–0
R. O'ReillyMisswristMiss
J. GuentzelSavewristSave
Rd 30–0
J. MarchessaultSavewristSave
G. GoncalvesSavewristSave
Rd 40–1
S. StamkosWinnerbackhandGoalWinnerClip(opens nhl.com)

NSH shootersVasilevskiy 2/3 SV

Shots

Shooters

TBL2.80 xG44 unblocked · 17 blocked44 unblocked · 17 blocked

NSH3.95 xG46 unblocked · 28 blocked46 unblocked · 28 blocked

Goal, taller = higher xGSavedMissedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

TBLNSH4Goals42.80xG3.9526Shots3344Unblocked4661Attempts745High danger100/3Power play1/323Faceoffs2619Hits1728Blocks173Takeaways212Giveaways96PIM6

Skaters

Player

Player
59J. GuentzelJake GuentzelC	25:56	1	0	1	3	6	0.25	+0.75	0	0	0	0	50%	0	+3
51C. D'AstousCharle-Edouard D'AstousD	25:25	0	1	1	0	1	0.00	0.00	4	3	0	2	—	0	+2
86N. KucherovNikita KucherovR	23:41	0	3	3	1	4	0.19	−0.19	1	1	1	2	—	0	+3
21B. PointBrayden PointC	23:10	0	1	1	3	5	0.42	−0.42	1	4	0	0	57%	0	+3
90J. MoserJ.J. MoserD	22:17	0	0	0	2	5	0.28	−0.28	2	5	0	0	—	2	0
38B. HagelBrandon HagelL	20:13	0	0	0	3	6	0.27	−0.27	0	0	1	0	—	0	-3
74J. CarlsonJohn CarlsonD	19:11	1	1	2	5	6	0.50	+0.50	0	1	0	1	—	0	+2
27R. McDonaghRyan McDonaghD	18:38	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	−0.03	0	1	0	0	—	0	0
71A. CirelliAnthony CirelliC	18:33	0	0	0	0	2	0.09	−0.09	0	1	1	2	53%	0	-3
24M. CrozierMax CrozierD	17:36	0	0	0	2	5	0.08	−0.08	0	3	0	1	—	0	-1
77V. HedmanVictor HedmanD	16:43	1	0	1	2	4	0.22	+0.78	0	1	0	0	—	0	-1
29P. HolmbergPontus HolmbergR	14:50	0	0	0	1	3	0.20	−0.20	1	0	0	0	0%	0	-2
95I. MikheyevIlya MikheyevR	13:44	0	0	0	1	1	0.00	−0.00	0	0	0	1	—	2	0
93G. GoncalvesGage GoncalvesC	12:42	0	0	0	1	1	0.00	−0.00	3	1	0	1	—	0	-1
17D. JamesDominic JamesC	11:40	0	0	0	1	1	0.03	−0.03	1	0	0	0	30%	0	0
94C. GeekieConor GeekieC	10:02	1	0	1	1	2	0.14	+0.86	2	0	0	0	50%	0	+1
49S. SabourinScott SabourinR	8:36	0	0	0	0	1	0.06	−0.06	2	1	0	1	100%	2	+1
25J. VielJeffrey VielL	7:41	0	1	1	0	6	0.04	−0.04	2	1	0	0	—	0	+1
TBL total		4	7	11	26	61	2.80	+1.20	19	23	3	11	47%	6

Pony score

Incredible9.0+Great7.5+Good6.0+Average4.0+Below avg2.5+HorribleMethod

Forwards

Kucherov8.0

Viel7.2

Geekie7.0

Point6.6

Guentzel6.5

Goncalves4.0

Sabourin3.7

Cirelli3.3

James2.4

Hagel2.0

Holmberg1.3

Mikheyev0.9

Defence

Carlson9.0

D'Astous6.6

Hedman6.4

Moser4.1

Crozier3.2

McDonagh3.1

Goalie

Vasilevskiy4.8

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Point·Guentzel·Kucherov	15:48	19	21	20	51.2%	10	8	3	0	1.24	0.37	77.2%	+0.87	1	2	33%
Viel·Geekie·Sabourin	7:08	12	11	11	50.0%	1	4	1	0	0.27	0.44	38.5%	−0.16	1	0	100%
Hagel·Cirelli·Holmberg	6:43	8	11	16	40.7%	4	7	0	2	0.27	0.72	27.2%	−0.45	1	3	25%
James·Goncalves·Mikheyev	5:17	8	2	3	40.0%	1	1	0	0	0.00	0.21	0.9%	−0.20	0	0	—
Hagel·Cirelli·Goncalves	4:06	6	5	1	83.3%	1	1	0	1	0.13	0.03	81.6%	+0.10	0	1	0%
James·Holmberg·Mikheyev	3:47	9	1	8	11.1%	0	4	0	0	0.15	0.95	13.3%	−0.81	2	3	40%
Occasional · 2 groups
Cirelli·Holmberg·Mikheyev	0:54	1	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Goncalves·Geekie·Holmberg	0:42	1	1	1	50.0%	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	100.0%	+0.00	0	0	—
Other 39 brief groups	5:05		0	3	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.18	0.0%	−0.18
TBL 5v5	49:30		52	63	45.2%	18	26	4	3	2.07	2.90	41.6%	−0.83

Goalies

Andrei Vasilevskiy

TBL · 65:00

Saves: 29/33
SV%: .879
GAA: 3.69
xGA: 3.95
GSAx: −0.05

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	26/29	.897	3.31	+0.31
Power play	3/4	.750	0.64	−0.36
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	7/8	.875	2.08	+1.08

Justus Annunen

NSH · 64:52

Saves: 22/26
SV%: .846
GAA: 3.70
xGA: 2.80
GSAx: −1.20

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	17/21	.810	2.40	−1.60
Power play	3/3	1.000	0.26	+0.26
Shorthanded	2/2	1.000	0.14	+0.14
High danger	4/5	.800	1.00	+0.00

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Tampa Bay Lightning

Minutes

25:25D'Astous
22:17Moser
19:11Carlson
18:38McDonagh
17:36Crozier
16:43Hedman

25:56Guentzel
23:41Kucherov
23:10Point
20:13Hagel
18:33Cirelli
14:50Holmberg
13:44Mikheyev
12:42Goncalves
11:40James
10:02Geekie
8:36Sabourin
7:41Viel

Matchups

Full game

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareTBLNSHGoalHard matchEdge bars = skater 5v5 total

Faceoffs

Both teams · pick a taker to focus

23–2647%

D 33%6–12N 60%12–8O 45%5–6 5 won into a shot

NSH attacks612TBL DZ 33% NSH OZ

Neutral128TBL NZ 60% NSH NZ

TBL attacks56TBL OZ 45% NSH DZ

26–2353%

D 55%6–5N 40%8–12O 67%12–6 8 won into a shot

Bead = draw, winner’s colourClockwise from the top in game order Shot attempt within 10sHover a zone for its draws · click a taker to focus

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

HedmanD1 O2
CarlsonD2 O2
D'AstousD2 O2
CrozierD2 O2
MoserD3 O1
McDonaghD5 O1
SabourinD0 O1
VielD0 O1
GeekieD0 O1
JamesD2 O3
KucherovD2 O2
GuentzelD2 O2
PointD2 O2
MikheyevD3 O3
GoncalvesD1 O0
CirelliD6 O4
HolmbergD5 O3
HagelD6 O2

Shift starts · darker = later period