TBL @ WPG 3–4 · 2026-11-08

Tampa BayTBLLightning3

FinalNov 82026-11-08

Team	1	2	3	SOG
TBL	0	0	3	21
WPG	0	2	2	26

Canada Life Centre

WinnipegWPGJets4

CallNo lean · 38% WPG

Star 1M. Scheifele1G 1A
Star 2B. Yager1G 0A
Star 3P. Holmberg2G 0A

Closing linesDraftKings

-155Moneyline+130-1.5 +164Puck line+1.5 -198O +100Total 6.5U -120+110RegulationTie +320 +175-1451st period+110+1571st · 3-wayTie +180 +200

Season odds

97%98%+0.8Playoffs12%25%+13.614%13%−1.9Cup0.0%0.2%+0.2

Story

– / 15

Result WPG 4–3Call No lean · TBL 62%Market TBL 59%xG 1.78–3.94 · deserved WPG 83%Swing Scheifele +54 3rd 19:58Method

Goals and penalties with WPG win probability
Time	Event	WPG win before	WPG win after
1st 4:15	WPG penalty · D. DeMelo · cross checking · 2 min
1st 15:36	WPG penalty · H. Fleury · high sticking · 2 min
2nd 0:28	TBL penalty · M. Crozier · holding · 2 min
2nd 1:53	Goal WPG · C. Perfetti (PP)	40%	60%
2nd 10:28	WPG penalty · M. Ferraro · slashing · 2 min
2nd 12:38	Goal WPG · M. Barron	65%	83%
2nd 18:17	WPG penalty · D. DeMelo · tripping · 2 min
3rd 6:19	TBL penalty · P. Holmberg · high sticking double minor · 4 min
3rd 8:10	Goal WPG · B. Yager (PP)	94%	99%
3rd 10:22	Goal TBL · B. Hagel	99%	95%
3rd 14:01	Goal TBL · P. Holmberg	98%	85%
3rd 14:27	Goal TBL · P. Holmberg	86%	44%
3rd 18:15	TBL penalty · Y. Gourde · tripping · 2 min
3rd 19:07	TBL penalty · E. Cernak · closing hand on puck · 2 min
3rd 19:58	Goal WPG · M. Scheifele (PP)	45%	100%

On ice · final horn

TBL4 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
94C. GeekieC	0:02	13:24	17	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	3-3
25J. VielL	0:02	11:54	16	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	–
24M. CrozierD	0:02	16:25	20	0	0	0	1	5	2	1	0	–
51C. D'AstousD	0:02	17:29	19	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	–
88A. VasilevskiyG		60:00	SA26GA4SV%.846xGA3.94GSAx−0.06

WPG5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
17A. LowryC	0:02	13:46	22	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	7-4
36M. BarronC	0:02	14:28	23	1	0	1	3	3	0	2	1	11-7
9A. IafalloL	0:02	13:46	21	0	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	–
2D. DeMeloD	0:02	17:28	29	0	0	0	1	1	4	1	2	–
38M. FerraroD	0:02	19:37	28	0	0	0	1	2	2	3	4	–
74S. SkinnerG		59:52	SA21GA3SV%.857xGA1.78GSAx−1.22

Goals

2nd
Cole Perfetti(7)PP
M. Scheifele (14), H. Fleury (3)
xG 0.20snapClip(opens nhl.com)
0–1 WPG2nd 01:53+20.060%
Morgan Barron(3)
N. Pionk (8), V. Björck (2)
xG 0.14slapClip(opens nhl.com)
0–2 WPG2nd 12:38+18.283%
3rd
Brayden Yager(1)PP
V. Björck (3), A. Iafallo (3)
xG 0.15snapClip(opens nhl.com)
0–3 WPG3rd 08:10+5.199%
Brandon Hagel(9)
A. Cirelli (6)
xG 0.28wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–3 WPG3rd 10:22+4.05%
Pontus Holmberg(5)
E. Cernak (6), Z. Girgensons (3)
xG 0.11snapClip(opens nhl.com)
2–3 WPG3rd 14:01+12.315%
Pontus Holmberg(6)
E. Cernak (7), I. Mikheyev (3)
xG 0.07backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
3–3 Tied3rd 14:27+41.856%
Mark Scheifele(4)PP
C. Perfetti (7), G. Vilardi (8)
xG 0.23slapClip(opens nhl.com)
3–4 WPG3rd 19:58+54.3100%

Shots

Shooters

TBL1.78 xG32 unblocked · 19 blocked32 unblocked · 19 blocked

WPG3.94 xG41 unblocked · 3 blocked41 unblocked · 3 blocked

Goal, taller = higher xGSavedMissedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

TBLWPG3Goals41.78xG3.9421Shots2632Unblocked4151Attempts441High danger80/4Power play3/525Faceoffs2818Hits173Blocks193Takeaways420Giveaways2010PIM8

Skaters

Player

Player
86N. KucherovNikita KucherovR	21:36	0	0	0	1	4	0.01	−0.01	0	0	0	2	—	0	0
59J. GuentzelJake GuentzelC	20:47	0	0	0	1	2	0.24	−0.24	1	0	0	1	30%	0	+1
38B. HagelBrandon HagelL	19:20	1	0	1	3	7	0.51	+0.49	1	0	0	0	0%	0	+1
90J. MoserJ.J. MoserD	19:13	0	0	0	1	2	0.03	−0.03	1	0	0	2	—	0	+1
74J. CarlsonJohn CarlsonD	19:07	0	0	0	2	3	0.08	−0.08	1	0	0	1	—	0	0
51C. D'AstousCharle-Edouard D'AstousD	17:29	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.00	1	1	0	2	—	0	-1
27R. McDonaghRyan McDonaghD	17:26	0	0	0	1	1	0.00	−0.00	0	1	0	2	—	0	+2
77V. HedmanVictor HedmanD	17:18	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	−0.01	0	1	0	1	—	0	0
81E. CernakErik CernakD	16:59	0	2	2	2	2	0.10	−0.10	1	0	1	2	—	2	+1
71A. CirelliAnthony CirelliC	16:48	0	1	1	1	1	0.08	−0.08	1	0	1	1	—	0	+1
24M. CrozierMax CrozierD	16:25	0	0	0	1	5	0.04	−0.04	1	0	0	1	—	2	+1
37Y. GourdeYanni GourdeC	15:41	0	0	0	1	3	0.08	−0.08	3	0	0	0	53%	2	-1
28Z. GirgensonsZemgus GirgensonsC	14:57	0	1	1	1	3	0.17	−0.17	3	0	0	0	53%	0	+2
95I. MikheyevIlya MikheyevR	14:46	0	1	1	0	2	0.01	−0.01	0	0	0	1	—	0	+2
94C. GeekieConor GeekieC	13:24	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.00	2	0	1	2	50%	0	-1
29P. HolmbergPontus HolmbergR	13:23	2	0	2	4	5	0.27	+1.73	0	0	0	0	0%	4	+1
25J. VielJeffrey VielL	11:54	0	0	0	0	3	0.04	−0.04	2	0	0	1	—	0	0
21B. PointBrayden PointC	5:35	0	0	0	2	2	0.12	−0.12	0	0	0	0	67%	0	0
TBL total		3	5	8	21	51	1.78	+1.22	18	3	3	19	47%	10

Pony score

Incredible9.0+Great7.5+Good6.0+Average4.0+Below avg2.5+HorribleMethod

Forwards

Holmberg8.3

Hagel6.6

Cirelli6.6

Point4.9

Viel4.1

Mikheyev4.0

Girgensons3.4

Geekie2.9

Guentzel2.3

Gourde2.2

Kucherov1.3

Defence

Cernak7.2

Hedman4.3

Moser3.2

D'Astous2.6

Crozier2.6

Carlson2.3

McDonagh2.1

Goalie

Vasilevskiy4.8

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Girgensons·Holmberg·Mikheyev	9:10	15	10	3	76.9%	6	2	2	0	0.44	0.06	88.8%	+0.38	2	3	40%
Gourde·Guentzel·Kucherov	4:11	7	1	1	50.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.02	0.0%	−0.02	1	2	33%
Hagel·Gourde·Cirelli	4:10	10	5	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.14	0.00	100.0%	+0.14	2	0	100%
Point·Guentzel·Kucherov	3:13	5	4	2	66.7%	3	1	0	0	0.12	0.07	62.9%	+0.05	2	0	100%
Hagel·Cirelli·Kucherov	2:19	4	1	4	20.0%	1	1	0	0	0.00	0.36	0.8%	−0.36	0	0	—
Occasional · 15 groups
Hagel·Guentzel·Cirelli	1:25	4	2	2	50.0%	1	1	1	0	0.28	0.04	87.2%	+0.24	1	0	100%
Guentzel·Cirelli·Kucherov	1:06	2	0	3	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.32	0.0%	−0.32	0	0	—
Hagel·Gourde·Geekie	0:49	1	2	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.02	0.00	100.0%	+0.02	0	1	0%
Hagel·Gourde·Guentzel	0:47	2	2	1	66.7%	0	1	0	0	0.09	0.04	72.3%	+0.06	0	0	—
Viel·Hagel·Gourde	0:42	1	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Viel·Geekie·Holmberg	0:39	2	2	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.03	0.00	100.0%	+0.03	0	0	—
Geekie·Holmberg·Mikheyev	0:39	3	3	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Viel·Hagel·Cirelli	0:37	2	1	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.08	0.00	100.0%	+0.08	0	0	—
Viel·Guentzel·Geekie	0:36	1	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.03	0.00	100.0%	+0.03	0	0	—
Girgensons·Kucherov·Mikheyev	0:32	3	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Viel·Gourde·Geekie	0:32	1	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Hagel·Gourde·Kucherov	0:31	3	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Point·Holmberg·Mikheyev	0:30	2	0	3	0.0%	0	3	0	0	0.00	0.26	0.0%	−0.26	0	0	—
Viel·Gourde·Kucherov	0:30	1	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Gourde·Geekie·Holmberg	0:08	1	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.14	0.0%	−0.14	0	0	—
Other 32 brief groups	11:45		11	7	61.1%	5	3	0	0	0.31	0.52	37.0%	−0.22
TBL 5v5	44:51		45	27	62.5%	19	14	3	1	1.55	1.83	45.8%	−0.28

Goalies

Andrei Vasilevskiy

TBL · 60:00

Saves: 22/26
SV%: .846
GAA: 4.00
xGA: 3.94
GSAx: −0.06

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	13/14	.929	1.83	+0.83
Power play	7/10	.700	2.10	−0.90
Shorthanded	2/2	1.000	0.00	+0.00
High danger	3/5	.600	1.83	−0.17

Stuart Skinner

WPG · 59:52

Saves: 18/21
SV%: .857
GAA: 3.01
xGA: 1.78
GSAx: −1.22

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	16/19	.842	1.55	−1.45
Power play	1/1	1.000	0.18	+0.18
Shorthanded	1/1	1.000	0.05	+0.05
High danger	0/1	.000	0.28	−0.72

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Tampa Bay Lightning

Minutes

19:13Moser
19:07Carlson
17:29D'Astous
17:26McDonagh
17:18Hedman
16:59Cernak
16:25Crozier

21:36Kucherov
20:47Guentzel
19:20Hagel
16:48Cirelli
15:41Gourde
14:57Girgensons
14:46Mikheyev
13:24Geekie
13:23Holmberg
11:54Viel
5:35Point

Matchups

Full game

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareTBLWPGGoalHard matchEdge bars = skater 5v5 total

Faceoffs

Both teams · pick a taker to focus

25–2847%

D 62%8–5N 50%10–10O 35%7–13 1 won into a shot

WPG attacks85TBL DZ 62% WPG OZ

Neutral1010TBL NZ 50% WPG NZ

TBL attacks713TBL OZ 35% WPG DZ

28–2553%

D 65%13–7N 50%10–10O 38%5–8 4 won into a shot

Bead = draw, winner’s colourClockwise from the top in game order Shot attempt within 10sHover a zone for its draws · click a taker to focus

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

CarlsonD1 O5
D'AstousD1 O4
CrozierD0 O3
HedmanD0 O2
MoserD2 O3
CernakD6 O1
McDonaghD7 O1
HagelD1 O7
CirelliD0 O4
GuentzelD3 O6
PointD0 O3
KucherovD2 O4
GourdeD3 O4
VielD0 O1
GeekieD1 O2
HolmbergD3 O2
MikheyevD6 O0
GirgensonsD7 O0

Shift starts · darker = later period