VGK @ BUF 4–1 · 2026-11-08

VegasVGKGolden Knights4

FinalNov 82026-11-08

Team	1	2	3	SOG
VGK	0	2	2	26
BUF	0	0	1	29

KeyBank Center

BuffaloBUFSabres1

CallNo lean · 48% BUF

Star 1T. Hertl2G 0A
Star 2M. Marner1G 1A
Star 3A. Hill.966 SV%

Closing linesDraftKings

-112Moneyline-108-1.5 +220Puck line+1.5 -270O -105Total 6.5U -115+145RegulationTie +310 +135-1151st period-115+1781st · 3-wayTie +180 +178

Season odds

99%99%+0.2Playoffs55%51%−3.78.7%7.2%−1.5Cup1.7%0.8%−0.9

Story

– / 11

Result VGK 4–1Call No lean · VGK 52%Market VGK 51%xG 3.81–3.64 · deserved VGK 53%Swing Marner +22 2nd 12:17Method

Goals and penalties with BUF win probability
Time	Event	BUF win before	BUF win after
1st 8:41	BUF penalty · O. Zellweger · high sticking · 2 min
1st 17:28	BUF penalty · C. Timmins · high sticking · 2 min
2nd 2:56	VGK penalty · D. Coghlan · tripping · 2 min
2nd 5:30	VGK penalty · B. Howden · hooking · 2 min
2nd 11:31	VGK penalty · I. Barbashev · hooking · 2 min
2nd 12:17	Goal VGK · M. Marner (SH)	48%	26%
2nd 13:43	Goal VGK · J. Eichel	26%	11%
3rd 4:26	Goal BUF · B. Malenstyn	6%	20%
3rd 5:43	Goal VGK · T. Hertl	20%	5%
3rd 10:00	Goal VGK · T. Hertl	3%	1%
3rd 18:53	BUF penalty · R. Dahlin · slashing · 2 min

On ice · final horn

VGK5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
48T. HertlC	1:07	14:18	17	2	0	2	4	11	0	4	0	10-2
49I. BarbashevL	2:03	14:45	17	0	2	2	0	1	2	2	1	0-1
42B. BowmanR	1:07	13:32	16	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	–
4R. AnderssonD	1:07	20:44	30	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	–
27S. TheodoreD	1:25	24:18	29	0	1	1	0	4	0	0	2	–
33A. HillG		60:00	SA29GA1SV%.966xGA3.64GSAx+2.64

BUF4 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
48T. KozakC	1:07	11:33	18	0	1	1	1	1	0	2	1	5-4
29B. MalenstynL	1:07	13:13	17	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	–
21C. TimminsD	1:07	17:46	21	0	0	0	0	6	2	0	2	–
23M. SamuelssonD	1:19	24:05	24	0	1	1	4	10	0	0	3	–
92C. EllisG		60:00	SA26GA4SV%.846xGA3.81GSAx−0.19

Goals

2nd
Mitch Marner(3)SH
Unassisted
xG 0.73wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–0 VGK2nd 12:17+22.274%
Jack Eichel(8)
I. Barbashev (10)
xG 0.20wristClip(opens nhl.com)
2–0 VGK2nd 13:43+15.089%
3rd
Beck Malenstyn(1)
T. Kozak (1), M. Samuelsson (8)
xG 0.49wristClip(opens nhl.com)
2–1 VGK3rd 04:26+14.420%
Tomas Hertl(8)
M. Marner (17)
xG 0.25wristClip(opens nhl.com)
3–1 VGK3rd 05:43+14.195%
Tomas Hertl(9)
I. Barbashev (11), S. Theodore (4)
xG 0.13wristClip(opens nhl.com)
4–1 VGK3rd 10:00+2.899%

Shots

Shooters

VGK3.81 xG41 unblocked · 10 blocked41 unblocked · 10 blocked

BUF3.64 xG50 unblocked · 28 blocked50 unblocked · 28 blocked

Goal, taller = higher xGSavedMissedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

VGKBUF4Goals13.81xG3.6426Shots2941Unblocked5051Attempts786High danger70/3Power play0/329Faceoffs2320Hits1028Blocks105Takeaways216Giveaways106PIM6

Skaters

Player

Player
27S. TheodoreShea TheodoreD	24:18	0	1	1	0	4	0.16	−0.16	0	2	0	2	—	0	+3
3B. McNabbBrayden McNabbD	22:08	0	0	0	2	4	0.04	−0.04	2	5	1	1	—	0	+3
4R. AnderssonRasmus AnderssonD	20:44	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	1	0	0	—	0	0
5J. LauzonJeremy LauzonD	20:22	0	0	0	1	3	0.03	−0.03	3	2	0	0	—	0	+1
93M. MarnerMitch MarnerR	18:35	1	1	2	3	4	0.92	+0.08	0	0	2	2	—	0	+2
9J. EichelJack EichelC	17:52	1	0	1	5	6	0.50	+0.50	0	0	0	1	37%	0	0
61M. StoneMark StoneR	17:20	0	0	0	2	4	0.24	−0.24	0	2	1	3	50%	0	0
15N. HanifinNoah HanifinD	16:41	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	2	2	0	0	—	0	0
71W. KarlssonWilliam KarlssonC	16:27	0	0	0	5	6	0.47	−0.47	0	2	0	0	75%	0	+1
24T. ConnellyTrevor ConnellyL	15:15	0	0	0	1	1	0.09	−0.09	0	2	0	1	—	0	-1
49I. BarbashevIvan BarbashevL	14:45	0	2	2	0	1	0.05	−0.05	2	1	0	0	0%	2	+3
48T. HertlTomas HertlC	14:18	2	0	2	4	11	0.91	+1.09	4	0	0	1	83%	0	+2
26N. DowdNic DowdC	14:10	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	−0.03	2	1	0	2	57%	0	0
21B. HowdenBrett HowdenC	13:45	0	0	0	1	2	0.14	−0.14	2	1	1	0	0%	2	0
42B. BowmanBraeden BowmanR	13:32	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	−0.02	1	0	0	1	—	0	0
95V. OlofssonVictor OlofssonL	12:54	0	0	0	2	2	0.21	−0.21	0	0	0	1	—	0	+1
52D. CoghlanDylan CoghlanD	11:03	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1	2	0	1	—	2	-1
17M. GatcombMarc GatcombC	9:51	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	1	0	0	0	100%	0	0
VGK total		4	4	8	26	51	3.81	+0.19	20	23	5	16	56%	6

Pony score

Incredible9.0+Great7.5+Good6.0+Average4.0+Below avg2.5+HorribleMethod

Forwards

Hertl8.7

Marner8.4

Barbashev7.9

Eichel6.6

Stone5.2

Olofsson5.2

Karlsson4.9

Connelly3.5

Gatcomb3.2

Bowman3.0

Dowd2.5

Howden2.4

Defence

Theodore7.2

McNabb6.8

Andersson6.2

Lauzon4.4

Hanifin2.7

Coghlan2.6

Goalie

Hill8.5

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Connelly·Eichel·Stone	10:48	15	13	11	54.2%	8	5	0	1	0.63	0.68	47.9%	−0.06	3	1	75%
Howden·Karlsson·Marner	10:32	13	9	14	39.1%	5	4	0	0	0.48	0.50	48.8%	−0.02	4	0	100%
Barbashev·Olofsson·Hertl	8:42	14	7	10	41.2%	2	4	1	0	0.18	0.33	35.1%	−0.15	1	1	50%
Gatcomb·Dowd·Bowman	7:43	12	1	11	8.3%	0	4	0	0	0.02	0.56	3.9%	−0.54	0	1	0%
Occasional · 8 groups
Barbashev·Olofsson·Dowd	1:14	8	1	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.17	0.00	100.0%	+0.17	0	0	—
Barbashev·Gatcomb·Dowd	1:03	7	1	1	50.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.14	0.0%	−0.14	0	0	—
Connelly·Eichel·Marner	0:50	6	1	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.01	0.00	100.0%	+0.01	0	0	—
Barbashev·Hertl·Marner	0:36	3	2	0	100.0%	2	0	1	0	0.25	0.00	100.0%	+0.25	0	0	—
Barbashev·Karlsson·Marner	0:35	3	0	2	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.07	0.0%	−0.07	0	0	—
Connelly·Hertl·Stone	0:33	1	0	4	0.0%	0	2	0	0	0.00	0.03	0.0%	−0.03	0	0	—
Eichel·Howden·Marner	0:31	3	0	2	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Barbashev·Eichel·Stone	0:16	2	2	0	100.0%	1	0	1	0	0.25	0.00	100.0%	+0.25	0	0	—
Other 33 brief groups	5:30		0	12	0.0%	0	4	0	0	0.00	0.68	0.0%	−0.68
VGK 5v5	48:53		37	67	35.6%	20	25	3	1	1.99	2.99	39.9%	−1.00

Goalies

Adin Hill

VGK · 60:00

Saves: 28/29
SV%: .966
GAA: 1.00
xGA: 3.64
GSAx: +2.64

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	24/25	.960	2.99	+1.99
Power play	2/2	1.000	0.46	+0.46
Shorthanded	2/2	1.000	0.19	+0.19
High danger	2/3	.667	1.64	+0.64

Colten Ellis

BUF · 60:00

Saves: 22/26
SV%: .846
GAA: 4.00
xGA: 3.81
GSAx: −0.19

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	17/20	.850	1.99	−1.01
Power play	3/3	1.000	0.82	+0.82
Shorthanded	2/3	.667	1.01	+0.01
High danger	3/6	.500	1.76	−1.24

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Vegas Golden Knights

Minutes

24:18Theodore
22:08McNabb
20:44Andersson
20:22Lauzon
16:41Hanifin
11:03Coghlan

18:35Marner
17:52Eichel
17:20Stone
16:27Karlsson
15:15Connelly
14:45Barbashev
14:18Hertl
14:10Dowd
13:45Howden
13:32Bowman
12:54Olofsson
9:51Gatcomb

Matchups

Full game

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareVGKBUFGoalHard matchEdge bars = skater 5v5 total

Faceoffs

Both teams · pick a taker to focus

29–2356%

D 56%10–8N 56%9–7O 56%10–8 7 won into a shot

BUF attacks108VGK DZ 56% BUF OZ

Neutral97VGK NZ 56% BUF NZ

VGK attacks108VGK OZ 56% BUF DZ

23–2944%

D 44%8–10N 44%7–9O 44%8–10 6 won into a shot

Bead = draw, winner’s colourClockwise from the top in game order Shot attempt within 10sHover a zone for its draws · click a taker to focus

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

AnderssonD1 O5
CoghlanD0 O3
HanifinD1 O2
LauzonD2 O2
McNabbD4 O2
TheodoreD6 O3
MarnerD0 O4
HowdenD0 O4
KarlssonD1 O4
HertlD1 O3
ConnellyD1 O3
StoneD2 O3
OlofssonD1 O2
BowmanD0 O1
BarbashevD1 O1
DowdD1 O0
EichelD4 O3
GatcombD1 O0

Shift starts · darker = later period