TBL @ NYR 1–4 · 2026-10-13

Tampa BayTBLLightning1

FinalOct 132026-10-13

Team	1	2	3	SOG
TBL	1	0	0	26
NYR	2	1	1	23

Madison Square Garden

New YorkNYRRangers4

CallNo lean · 41% NYR

Star 1A. Lafrenière2G 0A
Star 2T. Kartye0G 2A
Star 3D. Garand.962 SV%

Closing linesDraftKings

-162Moneyline+136-1.5 +160Puck line+1.5 -192O -130Total 5.5U +110+100RegulationTie +320 +185-1451st period+110+1531st · 3-wayTie +172 +215

Season odds

96%96%−0.3Playoffs61%63%+2.314%14%+0.3Cup1.4%1.2%−0.2

Story

– / 15

Result NYR 4–1Call No lean · TBL 59%Market TBL 60%xG 2.64–3.29 · deserved NYR 62%Swing Cuylle +18 2nd 18:26Method

Goals and penalties with NYR win probability
Time	Event	NYR win before	NYR win after
1st 1:02	Goal NYR · A. Lafrenière	41%	57%
1st 3:03	TBL penalty · J. Carlson · slashing · 2 min
1st 7:54	TBL penalty · J. Viel · hooking · 2 min
1st 8:57	NYR penalty · A. Fox · holding · 2 min
1st 12:47	Goal NYR · A. Lafrenière	60%	76%
1st 14:17	TBL penalty · J. Viel · fighting · 5 min
1st 14:17	NYR penalty · M. Rempe · fighting · 5 min
1st 17:26	Goal TBL · Z. Girgensons	78%	62%
2nd 0:42	TBL penalty · E. Cernak · tripping · 2 min
2nd 4:28	NYR penalty · B. Schneider · hooking · 2 min
2nd 18:26	Goal NYR · W. Cuylle	71%	88%
3rd 0:29	NYR penalty · S. Durzi · cross checking · 2 min
3rd 1:57	TBL penalty · A. Cirelli · slashing · 2 min
3rd 15:34	NYR penalty · T. Kartye · interference · 2 min
3rd 17:16	Goal NYR · M. Zibanejad (SH) (EN)	100%	100%

On ice · final horn

TBL5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
28Z. GirgensonsC	0:29	15:02	19	1	0	1	2	4	0	2	0	5-6
29P. HolmbergR	0:29	13:42	18	0	1	1	3	5	0	0	1	–
95I. MikheyevR	0:31	13:50	18	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	–
24M. CrozierD	0:29	18:19	23	0	0	0	1	5	0	4	0	–
51C. D'AstousD	0:29	14:01	20	0	0	0	2	2	0	3	1	–
88A. VasilevskiyG		57:41	SA22GA3SV%.864xGA2.78GSAx−0.22

NYR5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
53C. BeaudoinC	0:47	3:29	6	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2-3
17E. TolvanenR	0:29	14:20	24	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	–
28O. BjorkstrandR	0:29	7:35	11	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	–
5S. DurziD	0:51	21:10	26	0	1	1	0	2	2	2	0	–
26M. PetterssonD	0:51	21:44	25	0	2	2	1	3	0	1	2	–
33D. GarandG		60:00	SA26GA1SV%.962xGA2.64GSAx+1.64

Goals

1st
Alexis Lafrenière(1)
T. Kartye (1), A. Fox (1)
xG 0.17wristClip(opens nhl.com)
0–1 NYR1st 01:02+16.557%
Alexis Lafrenière(2)
T. Kartye (2), J. Miller (1)
xG 0.39wristClip(opens nhl.com)
0–2 NYR1st 12:47+16.176%
Zemgus Girgensons(1)
P. Holmberg (1), V. Hedman (1)
xG 0.13wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–2 NYR1st 17:26+16.638%
2nd
Will Cuylle(1)
S. Durzi (1), M. Pettersson (1)
xG 0.06tip-inClip(opens nhl.com)
1–3 NYR2nd 18:26+17.788%
3rd
Mika Zibanejad(1)SHEN
A. Fox (2), M. Pettersson (2)
xG 0.50wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–4 NYR3rd 17:16+0.0100%

Shots

Shooters

TBL2.64 xG42 unblocked · 15 blocked42 unblocked · 15 blocked

NYR3.29 xG31 unblocked · 12 blocked31 unblocked · 12 blocked

Goal, taller = higher xGSavedMissedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

TBLNYR1Goals42.64xG3.2926Shots2342Unblocked3157Attempts432High danger70/4Power play0/421Faceoffs3322Hits3712Blocks152Takeaways317Giveaways1513PIM13

Skaters

Player

Player
86N. KucherovNikita KucherovR	23:15	0	0	0	2	3	0.16	−0.16	0	0	0	1	—	0	-1
38B. HagelBrandon HagelL	20:57	0	0	0	1	4	0.17	−0.17	1	1	0	0	—	0	-3
21B. PointBrayden PointC	20:12	0	0	0	5	11	1.02	−1.02	0	0	1	0	36%	0	-1
74J. CarlsonJohn CarlsonD	19:56	0	0	0	3	6	0.16	−0.16	1	1	0	1	—	2	-1
90J. MoserJ.J. MoserD	19:45	0	0	0	1	3	0.04	−0.04	1	1	0	0	—	0	0
59J. GuentzelJake GuentzelC	18:44	0	0	0	1	5	0.21	−0.21	2	0	0	1	17%	0	-3
24M. CrozierMax CrozierD	18:19	0	0	0	1	5	0.01	−0.01	4	0	0	1	—	0	-2
81E. CernakErik CernakD	17:02	0	0	0	1	3	0.05	−0.05	2	4	0	2	—	2	0
93G. GoncalvesGage GoncalvesC	16:20	0	0	0	1	2	0.02	−0.02	1	1	0	1	—	0	-1
71A. CirelliAnthony CirelliC	15:30	0	0	0	1	1	0.15	−0.15	0	1	1	2	44%	2	-3
28Z. GirgensonsZemgus GirgensonsC	15:02	1	0	1	2	4	0.27	+0.73	2	0	0	1	45%	0	+1
51C. D'AstousCharle-Edouard D'AstousD	14:01	0	0	0	2	2	0.06	−0.06	3	1	0	1	—	0	-1
95I. MikheyevIlya MikheyevR	13:50	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1	0	0	2	—	0	+1
29P. HolmbergPontus HolmbergR	13:42	0	1	1	3	5	0.27	−0.27	0	1	0	1	—	0	+1
94C. GeekieConor GeekieC	13:17	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	2	1	0	0	44%	0	-1
77V. HedmanVictor HedmanD	13:16	0	1	1	1	1	0.05	−0.05	0	0	0	2	—	0	-1
27R. McDonaghRyan McDonaghD	12:17	0	0	0	1	1	0.01	−0.01	0	0	0	1	—	0	0
25J. VielJeffrey VielL	9:09	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	−0.01	2	0	0	0	0%	7	-1
TBL total		1	2	3	26	57	2.64	−1.64	22	12	2	17	39%	13

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Girgensons+0.69

Holmberg+0.52

Goncalves−0.20

Mikheyev−0.22

Geekie−0.22

Kucherov−0.25

Guentzel−0.27

Point−0.27

Viel−0.40

Hagel−0.46

Cirelli−0.64

Defence

Moser+0.02

D'Astous−0.06

Hedman−0.08

Cernak−0.15

McDonagh−0.21

Carlson−0.23

Crozier−0.31

Goalie

Vasilevskiy−0.20

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Girgensons·Holmberg·Mikheyev	10:27	14	9	8	52.9%	5	2	1	0	0.36	0.23	61.1%	+0.13	1	3	25%
Point·Goncalves·Kucherov	5:54	8	8	2	80.0%	1	1	0	0	0.48	0.01	97.0%	+0.47	2	0	100%
Hagel·Cirelli·Kucherov	4:24	6	1	5	16.7%	0	1	0	0	0.15	0.31	33.0%	−0.16	1	1	50%
Viel·Goncalves·Geekie	3:39	6	2	4	33.3%	1	4	0	1	0.02	0.28	8.1%	−0.26	2	0	100%
Point·Guentzel·Kucherov	2:35	5	4	0	100.0%	2	0	0	0	0.10	0.00	100.0%	+0.10	0	2	0%
Hagel·Guentzel·Geekie	1:46	4	3	0	100.0%	2	0	0	0	0.07	0.00	100.0%	+0.07	1	0	100%
Hagel·Point·Kucherov	1:39	6	0	3	0.0%	0	2	0	0	0.00	0.18	0.0%	−0.18	0	0	—
Hagel·Guentzel·Cirelli	1:30	4	0	3	0.0%	0	2	0	2	0.00	0.59	0.0%	−0.59	2	1	67%
Viel·Guentzel·Geekie	1:03	2	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	1	1	50%
Point·Guentzel·Holmberg	0:57	2	4	0	100.0%	3	0	0	0	0.16	0.00	100.0%	+0.16	0	0	—
Viel·Girgensons·Mikheyev	0:56	1	3	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.01	0.00	100.0%	+0.01	1	0	100%
Point·Guentzel·Goncalves	0:55	2	4	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.06	0.00	100.0%	+0.06	0	1	0%
Guentzel·Goncalves·Geekie	0:51	2	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Viel·Girgensons·Geekie	0:51	1	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Viel·Geekie·Kucherov	0:48	4	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Goncalves·Geekie·Kucherov	0:47	2	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Point·Guentzel·Geekie	0:38	1	1	2	33.3%	0	1	0	0	0.15	0.13	53.6%	+0.02	1	0	100%
Viel·Hagel·Geekie	0:32	1	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Other 34 brief groups	4:10		4	1	80.0%	3	0	0	0	0.24	0.00	100.0%	+0.24
TBL 5v5	44:22		44	30	59.5%	18	13	1	3	1.80	1.74	50.9%	+0.06

Goalies

Andrei Vasilevskiy

TBL · 57:41

Saves: 19/22
SV%: .864
GAA: 3.12
xGA: 2.78
GSAx: −0.22

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	11/14	.786	1.90	−1.10
Power play	6/6	1.000	0.66	+0.66
Shorthanded	2/2	1.000	0.22	+0.22
High danger	3/5	.600	1.39	−0.61

Dylan Garand

NYR · 60:00

Saves: 25/26
SV%: .962
GAA: 1.00
xGA: 2.64
GSAx: +1.64

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	19/20	.950	2.04	+1.04
Power play	5/5	1.000	0.47	+0.47
Shorthanded	1/1	1.000	0.13	+0.13
High danger	0/0	—	0.30	+0.30

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Tampa Bay Lightning

Minutes

19:56Carlson
19:45Moser
18:19Crozier
17:02Cernak
14:01D'Astous
13:16Hedman
12:17McDonagh

23:15Kucherov
20:57Hagel
20:12Point
18:44Guentzel
16:20Goncalves
15:30Cirelli
15:02Girgensons
13:50Mikheyev
13:42Holmberg
13:17Geekie
9:09Viel

Matchups

Full game

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareTBLNYRGoalHard matchEdge bars = skater 5v5 total

Faceoffs

Both teams · pick a taker to focus

21–3339%

D 35%6–11N 25%3–9O 48%12–13 5 won into a shot

NYR attacks611TBL DZ 35% NYR OZ

Neutral39TBL NZ 25% NYR NZ

TBL attacks1213TBL OZ 48% NYR DZ

33–2161%

D 52%13–12N 75%9–3O 65%11–6 5 won into a shot

Bead = draw, winner’s colourClockwise from the top in game order Shot attempt within 10sHover a zone for its draws · click a taker to focus

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

CarlsonD1 O3
D'AstousD2 O4
MoserD2 O2
CrozierD5 O4
McDonaghD3 O1
CernakD3 O1
HedmanD5 O0
GoncalvesD1 O6
GeekieD1 O6
KucherovD1 O4
PointD2 O5
GuentzelD5 O7
CirelliD4 O6
VielD1 O3
HagelD4 O5
MikheyevD2 O2
GirgensonsD2 O1
HolmbergD3 O2

Shift starts · darker = later period