VGK @ NSH 5–2 · 2026-10-13

VegasVGKGolden Knights5

FinalOct 132026-10-13

Team	1	2	3	SOG
VGK	2	1	2	25
NSH	1	1	0	28

Bridgestone Arena

NashvilleNSHPredators2

CallNo lean · 42% NSH

Star 1W. Karlsson1G 0A
Star 2J. Eichel1G 0A
Star 3A. Edstrom1G 0A

Closing linesDraftKings

-130Moneyline+110-1.5 +200Puck line+1.5 -245O +110Total 6.5U -130+130RegulationTie +310 +150-1251st period-105+1681st · 3-wayTie +180 +185

Season odds

98%98%+0.3Playoffs18%13%−5.111%11%−0.2Cup0.1%0.1%±0.0

Story

– / 13

Result VGK 5–2Call No lean · VGK 58%Market VGK 54%xG 2.30–2.23 · deserved VGK 51%Swing Karlsson +24 2nd 17:44Method

Goals and penalties with NSH win probability
Time	Event	NSH win before	NSH win after
1st 3:55	Goal NSH · R. O'Reilly	42%	59%
1st 4:36	VGK penalty · B. Howden · interference · 2 min
1st 6:46	Goal VGK · T. Hertl	59%	42%
1st 10:44	VGK penalty · I. Barbashev · holding · 2 min
1st 12:48	Goal VGK · J. Eichel	43%	26%
1st 13:09	VGK penalty · N. Dowd · ps holding on breakaway
2nd 7:41	NSH penalty · A. Wilsby · hooking · 2 min
2nd 8:45	Goal NSH · A. Edstrom (SH)	23%	44%
2nd 17:44	Goal VGK · W. Karlsson	45%	21%
3rd 1:07	VGK penalty · M. Marner · hooking · 2 min
3rd 4:49	Goal VGK · T. Connelly	18%	5%
3rd 6:24	Goal VGK · B. Howden	4%	1%
3rd 9:03	NSH penalty · N. Hoglander · cross checking · 2 min

On ice · final horn

VGK5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
36R. LavoieC	0:30	13:11	14	0	1	1	1	2	0	1	1	–
48T. HertlC	0:28	14:27	16	1	0	1	2	2	0	1	0	7-4
24T. ConnellyL	0:29	14:00	17	1	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	–
4R. AnderssonD	0:37	19:24	27	0	2	2	2	2	0	0	2	–
5J. LauzonD	0:41	21:09	28	0	0	0	1	2	0	3	4	–
33A. HillG		60:00	SA28GA2SV%.929xGA2.23GSAx+0.23

NSH5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
14A. KerfootC	0:28	16:31	20	0	0	0	1	5	0	1	0	–
51V. PinchukC	0:30	11:27	16	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	2-5
81J. MarchessaultR	0:32	17:00	20	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	–
3J. StrubleD	0:30	16:24	22	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	–
41N. HagueD	0:28	15:04	21	0	1	1	1	2	0	4	1	–
74J. SarosG		60:00	SA25GA5SV%.800xGA2.30GSAx−2.70

Goals

1st
Ryan O'Reilly(1)
F. Forsberg (1)
xG 0.19backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
0–1 NSH1st 03:55+16.759%
Tomas Hertl(1)
R. Lavoie (1), B. Howden (1)
xG 0.07wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–1 Tied1st 06:46+17.258%
Jack Eichel(1)
B. McNabb (1)
xG 0.11tip-inClip(opens nhl.com)
2–1 VGK1st 12:48+16.874%
2nd
Adam Edstrom(1)SH
N. Hague (1), R. O'Reilly (1)
xG 0.13wristClip(opens nhl.com)
2–2 Tied2nd 08:45+20.444%
William Karlsson(1)
M. Marner (1), R. Andersson (1)
xG 0.10snapClip(opens nhl.com)
3–2 VGK2nd 17:44+23.779%
3rd
Trevor Connelly(1)
N. Hanifin (1), D. Coghlan (1)
xG 0.14wristClip(opens nhl.com)
4–2 VGK3rd 04:49+12.995%
Brett Howden(1)
R. Andersson (2), M. Stone (1)
xG 0.01tip-inClip(opens nhl.com)
5–2 VGK3rd 06:24+3.499%

Shots

Shooters

VGK2.30 xG35 unblocked · 10 blocked35 unblocked · 10 blocked

NSH2.23 xG39 unblocked · 21 blocked39 unblocked · 21 blocked

Goal, taller = higher xGSavedMissedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

VGKNSH5Goals22.30xG2.2325Shots2835Unblocked3945Attempts603High danger40/2Power play0/328Faceoffs2413Hits2521Blocks105Takeaways515Giveaways246PIM4

Skaters

Player

Player
27S. TheodoreShea TheodoreD	21:51	0	0	0	2	3	0.06	−0.06	0	1	0	1	—	0	0
5J. LauzonJeremy LauzonD	21:09	0	0	0	1	2	0.05	−0.05	3	4	0	1	—	0	+2
15N. HanifinNoah HanifinD	19:31	0	1	1	1	3	0.03	−0.03	0	5	2	1	—	0	+1
4R. AnderssonRasmus AnderssonD	19:24	0	2	2	2	2	0.01	−0.01	0	2	0	3	—	0	+3
3B. McNabbBrayden McNabbD	18:27	0	1	1	0	1	0.00	0.00	1	1	0	1	—	0	0
9J. EichelJack EichelC	17:54	1	0	1	4	5	0.41	+0.59	0	0	0	2	47%	0	0
61M. StoneMark StoneR	16:38	0	1	1	0	2	0.11	−0.11	1	1	0	0	—	0	0
49I. BarbashevIvan BarbashevL	16:10	0	0	0	1	3	0.06	−0.06	2	1	1	0	—	2	0
52D. CoghlanDylan CoghlanD	16:08	0	1	1	3	6	0.15	−0.15	0	0	0	1	—	0	+2
21B. HowdenBrett HowdenC	15:29	1	1	2	2	4	0.33	+0.67	0	0	0	1	0%	2	+3
93M. MarnerMitch MarnerR	15:24	0	1	1	1	1	0.16	−0.16	0	1	0	1	—	2	0
71W. KarlssonWilliam KarlssonC	15:22	1	0	1	2	2	0.13	+0.87	0	1	0	0	62%	0	+1
48T. HertlTomas HertlC	14:27	1	0	1	2	2	0.21	+0.79	1	0	0	1	64%	0	+1
42B. BowmanBraeden BowmanR	14:20	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	1	0	0	—	0	0
24T. ConnellyTrevor ConnellyL	14:00	1	0	1	2	3	0.16	+0.84	0	0	2	1	—	0	0
26N. DowdNic DowdC	13:21	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1	0	0	0	50%	0	0
36R. LavoieRaphael LavoieC	13:11	0	1	1	1	2	0.11	−0.11	1	0	0	0	—	0	+2
17M. GatcombMarc GatcombC	11:14	0	0	0	1	4	0.33	−0.33	3	0	0	1	—	0	0
VGK total		5	9	14	25	45	2.30	+2.70	13	18	5	15	54%	6

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Karlsson+0.51

Hertl+0.46

Connelly+0.42

Howden+0.41

Lavoie+0.34

Eichel+0.26

Marner+0.18

Stone−0.23

Gatcomb−0.25

Dowd−0.30

Bowman−0.31

Barbashev−0.45

Defence

Hanifin+0.64

Andersson+0.57

McNabb+0.29

Lauzon+0.17

Coghlan+0.02

Theodore−0.15

Goalie

Hill+0.24

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Barbashev·Eichel·Stone	12:11	17	13	14	48.1%	6	9	1	1	0.60	0.84	41.8%	−0.24	4	2	67%
Connelly·Lavoie·Hertl	10:53	14	12	10	54.5%	5	4	1	0	0.33	0.20	62.0%	+0.13	3	0	100%
Howden·Karlsson·Marner	9:41	14	6	9	40.0%	5	2	1	0	0.50	0.10	82.9%	+0.39	1	1	50%
Gatcomb·Dowd·Bowman	9:00	12	6	12	33.3%	3	5	0	0	0.35	0.47	42.2%	−0.13	0	1	0%
Occasional · 6 groups
Gatcomb·Howden·Dowd	1:20	4	0	3	0.0%	0	2	0	0	0.00	0.09	0.0%	−0.09	0	0	—
Barbashev·Karlsson·Bowman	0:48	2	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Howden·Bowman·Marner	0:44	1	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Howden·Hertl·Marner	0:37	3	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.11	0.00	100.0%	+0.11	0	0	—
Howden·Lavoie·Hertl	0:23	5	1	0	100.0%	1	0	1	0	0.07	0.00	100.0%	+0.07	0	0	—
Eichel·Howden·Stone	0:20	5	1	0	100.0%	1	0	1	0	0.01	0.00	100.0%	+0.01	0	0	—
Other 32 brief groups	4:03		3	0	100.0%	2	0	0	0	0.12	0.00	100.0%	+0.12
VGK 5v5	50:00		43	49	46.7%	23	22	5	1	2.09	1.71	55.1%	+0.38

Goalies

Adin Hill

VGK · 60:00

Saves: 26/28
SV%: .929
GAA: 2.00
xGA: 2.23
GSAx: +0.23

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	21/22	.955	1.71	+0.71
Power play	4/4	1.000	0.34	+0.34
Shorthanded	1/2	.500	0.18	−0.82
High danger	2/3	.667	0.75	−0.25

Juuse Saros

NSH · 60:00

Saves: 20/25
SV%: .800
GAA: 5.00
xGA: 2.30
GSAx: −2.70

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	18/23	.783	2.09	−2.91
Power play	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
Shorthanded	2/2	1.000	0.21	+0.21
High danger	3/3	1.000	0.62	+0.62

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Vegas Golden Knights

Minutes

21:51Theodore
21:09Lauzon
19:31Hanifin
19:24Andersson
18:27McNabb
16:08Coghlan

17:54Eichel
16:38Stone
16:10Barbashev
15:29Howden
15:24Marner
15:22Karlsson
14:27Hertl
14:20Bowman
14:00Connelly
13:21Dowd
13:11Lavoie
11:14Gatcomb

Matchups

Full game

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareVGKNSHGoalHard matchEdge bars = skater 5v5 total

Faceoffs

Both teams · pick a taker to focus

28–2454%

D 53%8–7N 53%10–9O 56%10–8 4 won into a shot

NSH attacks87VGK DZ 53% NSH OZ

Neutral109VGK NZ 53% NSH NZ

VGK attacks108VGK OZ 56% NSH DZ

24–2846%

D 44%8–10N 47%9–10O 47%7–8 4 won into a shot

Bead = draw, winner’s colourClockwise from the top in game order Shot attempt within 10sHover a zone for its draws · click a taker to focus

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

LauzonD0 O3
AnderssonD1 O3
HanifinD1 O2
CoghlanD1 O1
McNabbD7 O1
TheodoreD8 O1
HertlD0 O5
ConnellyD0 O4
StoneD2 O5
EichelD2 O5
MarnerD1 O3
LavoieD0 O2
BarbashevD3 O4
HowdenD1 O1
GatcombD1 O0
KarlssonD3 O1
BowmanD2 O0
DowdD4 O0

Shift starts · darker = later period