TOR @ VGK 3–4 · 2026-10-08

TorontoTORMaple Leafs3

Final/SOOct 82026-10-08

Team	1	2	3	OT	SOG
TOR	3	0	0	0	24
VGK	1	2	0	0	43

T-Mobile Arena

VegasVGKGolden Knights4

CallNo lean · 70% VGK

Star 1T. Connelly0G 0A
Star 2J. Eichel1G 1A
Star 3M. Stone1G 0A

Closing linesDraftKings

+142Moneyline-170+1.5 -180Puck line-1.5 +150O -118Total 6.5U -102+175RegulationTie +330 +105+1151st period-150+2101st · 3-wayTie +188 +147

Season odds

12%11%−1.5Playoffs98%98%+0.10.1%0.0%−0.1Cup12%12%−0.6

Story

– / 12

Result VGK 4–3 SOCall No lean · VGK 70%Market VGK 61%xG 2.58–4.63 · deserved VGK 79%Swing Eichel +20 2nd 3:58Method

Goals and penalties with VGK win probability
Time	Event	VGK win before	VGK win after
1st 0:34	Goal TOR · J. Roslovic	70%	54%
1st 3:20	Goal TOR · E. Cowan	53%	37%
1st 8:37	Goal TOR · N. Paul	35%	21%
1st 17:36	Goal VGK · M. Stone	16%	30%
1st 18:17	TOR penalty · G. McKenna · hooking · 2 min
2nd 1:12	Goal VGK · B. Howden	28%	47%
2nd 3:58	TOR penalty · M. Rielly · ps tripping on breakaway
2nd 3:58	Goal VGK · J. Eichel	46%	66%
2nd 5:09	TOR penalty · O. Ekman-Larsson · hooking · 2 min
2nd 13:09	TOR penalty · O. Ekman-Larsson · interference · 2 min
2nd 17:27	VGK penalty · M. Stone · slashing · 2 min
3rd 8:58	TOR penalty · B. Groulx · holding · 2 min

On ice · final horn

TOR3 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
91J. TavaresC	0:33	15:19	20	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	8-5
86K. MarchenkoR	0:33	18:13	20	0	1	1	2	9	0	0	0	–
43D. RaddyshD	0:33	24:38	33	0	1	1	1	4	0	1	2	–
72S. BobrovskyG		64:53	SA43GA3SV%.930xGA4.63GSAx+1.63

VGK3 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
9J. EichelC	0:33	26:31	23	1	1	2	6	8	0	1	2	9-11
61M. StoneR	0:33	23:50	21	1	0	1	5	9	2	3	2	0-1
15N. HanifinD	0:53	21:41	26	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	3	–
33A. HillG		64:33	SA23GA3SV%.870xGA2.39GSAx−0.61

Goals

1st
Jack Roslovic(1)
A. Matthews (1), K. Marchenko (1)
xG 0.03backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
1–0 TOR1st 00:34+15.446%
Easton Cowan(1)
C. Tanev (1)
xG 0.18snapClip(opens nhl.com)
2–0 TOR1st 03:20+16.263%
Nick Paul(1)
D. Raddysh (1), G. McKenna (1)
xG 0.18slapClip(opens nhl.com)
3–0 TOR1st 08:37+14.079%
Mark Stone(1)
J. Eichel (1), I. Barbashev (1)
xG 0.06slapClip(opens nhl.com)
3–1 TOR1st 17:36+13.830%
2nd
Brett Howden(1)
M. Marner (1), W. Karlsson (1)
xG 0.13deflectedClip(opens nhl.com)
3–2 TOR2nd 01:12+18.547%
Jack Eichel(1)1v0
Unassisted
xG 0.24wristClip(opens nhl.com)
3–3 Tied2nd 03:58+20.466%

ShootoutVGK B. Bowman GTOR K. Marchenko GVGK J. Eichel –TOR A. Matthews –VGK S. Theodore –TOR W. Nylander –VGK M. Marner –TOR G. McKenna –VGK T. Connelly GTOR J. Tavares –

Shots

TOR2.58 xG36 unblocked · 18 blocked36 unblocked · 18 blocked

VGK4.63 xG64 unblocked · 19 blocked64 unblocked · 19 blocked

GoalSavedMissedBlockedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

TORVGK3Goals32.58xG4.6324Shots4336Unblocked6454Attempts836High danger70/1Power play0/437Faceoffs2513Hits2719Blocks186Takeaways319Giveaways178PIM2

Skaters

Player

Player
43D. RaddyshDarren RaddyshD	24:45	0	1	1	1	4	0.04	−0.04	1	2	0	1	—	0	0
22J. McCabeJake McCabeD	23:32	0	0	0	1	1	0.01	−0.01	1	2	0	4	—	0	+2
8C. TanevChris TanevD	22:10	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	4	2	1	—	0	+1
34A. MatthewsAuston MatthewsC	21:32	0	1	1	2	3	0.08	−0.08	2	0	1	0	71%	0	+1
44M. RiellyMorgan RiellyD	20:57	0	0	0	1	5	0.14	−0.14	0	2	0	3	—	0	0
88W. NylanderWilliam NylanderR	20:31	0	0	0	5	6	0.58	−0.58	0	0	1	1	0%	0	-2
86K. MarchenkoKirill MarchenkoR	18:20	0	1	1	3	10	0.37	−0.37	0	0	1	2	—	0	+1
96J. RoslovicJack RoslovicC	17:32	1	0	1	3	5	0.30	+0.70	0	0	1	2	0%	0	+1
20N. PaulNick PaulL	17:05	1	0	1	2	3	0.40	+0.60	1	3	0	0	50%	0	+1
28T. StecherTroy StecherD	16:35	0	0	0	1	3	0.01	−0.01	2	0	0	0	—	0	0
15C. SissonsColton SissonsC	15:47	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	2	0	0	0	80%	0	+1
91J. TavaresJohn TavaresC	15:26	0	0	0	0	2	0.34	−0.34	2	0	0	1	62%	0	-2
95O. Ekman-LarssonOliver Ekman-LarssonD	15:22	0	0	0	0	4	0.00	−0.00	1	0	0	2	—	4	-1
92G. McKennaGavin McKennaL	14:08	0	1	1	1	2	0.04	−0.04	0	0	0	0	—	2	+1
53E. CowanEaston CowanR	14:00	1	0	1	4	4	0.28	+0.72	1	1	0	1	0%	0	-1
24B. DuhaimeBrandon DuhaimeL	12:07	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	1	0	0	0%	0	0
73T. BluegerTeddy BluegerC	11:02	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	1	0	1	55%	0	+1
29B. GroulxBo GroulxC	6:09	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0	—	2	+1
TOR total		3	5	8	24	54	2.58	+0.42	13	16	6	19	60%	8

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Paul+0.51

Cowan+0.42

Roslovic+0.22

Matthews+0.03

McKenna−0.14

Sissons−0.26

Blueger−0.29

Duhaime−0.30

Tavares−0.32

Groulx−0.34

Marchenko−0.36

Nylander−0.44

Defence

Tanev+0.31

Raddysh+0.09

Stecher−0.09

Rielly−0.19

McCabe−0.24

Ekman-Larsson−0.48

Goalie

Bobrovsky+1.66

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Paul·McKenna·Sissons	8:12	13	8	8	50.0%	4	3	1	0	0.45	0.20	69.0%	+0.25	0	1	0%
Matthews·Roslovic·Nylander	7:43	8	7	13	35.0%	4	7	0	0	0.25	0.68	26.9%	−0.43	1	2	33%
Matthews·Roslovic·Marchenko	6:42	12	8	7	53.3%	4	6	1	1	0.20	0.61	25.2%	−0.40	2	2	50%
Tavares·Cowan·Marchenko	4:25	6	4	8	33.3%	1	4	0	0	0.06	0.38	13.4%	−0.32	0	1	0%
Duhaime·Groulx·Blueger	3:59	6	0	5	0.0%	0	2	0	0	0.00	0.12	0.0%	−0.12	0	1	0%
Tavares·Cowan·Nylander	3:50	7	2	5	28.6%	2	3	0	2	0.07	0.25	22.1%	−0.18	1	1	50%
Occasional · 8 groups
Paul·Sissons·Cowan	1:51	5	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.01	0.0%	−0.01	0	2	0%
Tavares·Marchenko·Nylander	1:04	3	4	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.02	0.00	100.0%	+0.02	0	0	—
Duhaime·Blueger·Nylander	0:50	1	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.07	0.0%	−0.07	0	1	0%
Paul·Duhaime·Sissons	0:47	1	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	1	0%
McKenna·Tavares·Marchenko	0:47	2	2	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.02	0.00	100.0%	+0.02	0	0	—
Paul·Sissons·Groulx	0:45	2	2	1	66.7%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.07	0.0%	−0.07	1	0	100%
Duhaime·Tavares·Cowan	0:42	2	1	2	33.3%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.01	0.0%	−0.01	0	1	0%
Paul·McKenna·Groulx	0:33	2	0	3	0.0%	0	2	0	0	0.00	0.15	0.0%	−0.15	0	0	—
TOR 5v5	49:40		44	60	42.3%	19	31	3	3	1.36	2.67	33.8%	−1.31

Goalies

Sergei Bobrovsky

TOR · 65:00

Saves: 40/43
SV%: .930
xGA: 4.63
GSAx: +1.63

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	33/36	.917	3.47	+0.47
Power play	7/7	1.000	1.16	+1.16
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	3/4	.750	1.43	+0.43

Adin Hill

VGK · 64:40

Saves: 21/24
SV%: .875
xGA: 2.58
GSAx: −0.42

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	19/22	.864	2.41	−0.59
Power play	1/1	1.000	0.16	+0.16
Shorthanded	1/1	1.000	0.01	+0.01
High danger	3/5	.600	1.39	−0.61

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Toronto Maple Leafs

Minutes

24:45Raddysh
23:32McCabe
22:10Tanev
20:57Rielly
16:35Stecher
15:22Ekman-Larsson

21:32Matthews
20:31Nylander
18:20Marchenko
17:32Roslovic
17:05Paul
15:47Sissons
15:26Tavares
14:08McKenna
14:00Cowan
12:07Duhaime
11:02Blueger
6:09Groulx

Matchups

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareTORVGK

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

RaddyshD2 O7
RiellyD2 O5
StecherD3 O0
Ekman-LarssonD4 O0
TanevD13 O2
McCabeD14 O1
NylanderD2 O3
MatthewsD3 O4
MarchenkoD2 O3
GroulxD1 O1
TavaresD3 O2
RoslovicD4 O3
McKennaD1 O0
PaulD3 O1
SissonsD5 O1
BluegerD4 O0
CowanD6 O1
DuhaimeD9 O0

Shift starts · darker = later period