NSH @ MTL 5–2 · 2026-10-08

NashvilleNSHPredators5

FinalOct 82026-10-08

Team	1	2	3	SOG
NSH	0	2	3	20
MTL	0	2	0	33

Centre Bell

MontréalMTLCanadiens2

CallNo lean · 60% MTL

Star 1J. Saros.939 SV%
Star 2R. O'Reilly1G 0A
Star 3J. Anderson0G 1A

Closing linesDraftKings

+140Moneyline-166+1.5 -180Puck line-1.5 +150O +105Total 6.5U -125+185RegulationTie +330 +100+1151st period-150+2151st · 3-wayTie +180 +148

Season odds

25%19%−6.3Playoffs41%41%−0.30.2%0.1%−0.1Cup0.9%0.9%±0.0

Story

– / 16

Result NSH 5–2Call No lean · MTL 60%Market MTL 61%xG 3.14–3.23 · deserved MTL 51%Swing O'Reilly +46 3rd 16:44Method

Goals and penalties with MTL win probability
Time	Event	MTL win before	MTL win after
1st 3:11	NSH penalty · R. O'Reilly · hooking · 2 min
1st 10:46	MTL penalty · L. Hutson · tripping · 2 min
2nd 2:40	MTL penalty · J. Anderson · broken stick · 2 min
2nd 3:06	NSH penalty · M. Wood · tripping · 2 min
2nd 3:12	Goal MTL · N. Suzuki	58%	76%
2nd 8:50	Goal MTL · A. Newhook	77%	90%
2nd 15:06	Goal NSH · A. Kerfoot	92%	79%
2nd 18:00	MTL penalty · N. Dobson · tripping · 2 min
2nd 19:28	Goal NSH · M. Wood (PP)	80%	56%
2nd 19:28	MTL penalty · J. Anderson · cross checking · 2 min
2nd 19:28	MTL penalty · A. Xhekaj · misconduct · 10 min
3rd 4:55	NSH penalty · N. Hague · holding · 2 min
3rd 15:45	MTL penalty · M. Matheson · tripping · 2 min
3rd 16:44	Goal NSH · R. O'Reilly (PP)	54%	9%
3rd 17:23	Goal NSH · A. Edstrom (EN)	7%	0%
3rd 18:34	Goal NSH · A. Edstrom (EN)	0%	0%

On ice · final horn

NSH5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
21N. HoglanderL	0:33	12:48	15	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	1	0-1
49R. SchaeferL	0:37	9:36	14	0	0	0	2	3	0	1	1	1-0
71M. WoodR	0:35	13:29	16	1	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	2-1
48N. PerbixD	0:37	20:47	23	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	–
76B. SkjeiD	0:34	21:29	25	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	–
74J. SarosG		60:00	SA33GA2SV%.939xGA3.23GSAx+1.23

MTL5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
24P. DanaultC	0:37	18:38	23	0	0	0	2	2	0	1	0	6-7
85A. TexierL	0:36	13:43	15	0	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	–
76Z. BolducR	1:05	15:51	16	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	1	–
8M. MathesonD	0:37	23:42	28	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	1	–
72A. XhekajD	1:26	11:59	15	0	0	0	2	2	10	2	1	–
32J. FowlerG		58:53	SA18GA3SV%.833xGA1.70GSAx−1.30

Goals

2nd
Nick Suzuki(1)
Unassisted
xG 0.05backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
0–1 MTL2nd 03:12+18.576%
Alex Newhook(1)
J. Anderson (1)
xG 0.22snapClip(opens nhl.com)
0–2 MTL2nd 08:50+13.090%
Alexander Kerfoot(1)
A. Wilsby (1), R. Colton (1)
xG 0.09tip-inClip(opens nhl.com)
1–2 MTL2nd 15:06+13.221%
Matthew Wood(1)PP
S. Stamkos (1), F. Forsberg (1)
xG 0.28snapClip(opens nhl.com)
2–2 Tied2nd 19:28+24.044%
3rd
Ryan O'Reilly(1)PP
R. Josi (1), S. Stamkos (2)
xG 0.08tip-inClip(opens nhl.com)
3–2 NSH3rd 16:44+45.791%
Adam Edstrom(1)EN
B. Skjei (1), A. Kerfoot (1)
xG 0.91snapClip(opens nhl.com)
4–2 NSH3rd 17:23+6.5100%
Adam Edstrom(2)EN
R. Josi (2), J. Drury (1)
xG 0.53snapClip(opens nhl.com)
5–2 NSH3rd 18:34+0.0100%

Shots

NSH3.14 xG35 unblocked · 10 blocked35 unblocked · 10 blocked

MTL3.23 xG49 unblocked · 16 blocked49 unblocked · 16 blocked

GoalSavedMissedBlockedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

NSHMTL5Goals23.14xG3.2320Shots3335Unblocked4945Attempts654High danger62/5Power play0/327Faceoffs2818Hits1516Blocks105Takeaways321Giveaways146PIM20

Skaters

Player

Player
59R. JosiRoman JosiD	27:49	0	2	2	2	5	0.10	−0.10	1	2	0	2	—	0	+1
90R. O'ReillyRyan O'ReillyC	23:04	1	0	1	2	2	0.17	+0.83	1	2	0	0	47%	2	-2
76B. SkjeiBrady SkjeiD	21:29	0	1	1	0	1	0.02	−0.02	0	0	1	0	—	0	0
48N. PerbixNick PerbixD	20:47	0	0	0	1	3	0.10	−0.10	0	2	0	1	—	0	0
91S. StamkosSteven StamkosC	20:46	0	2	2	2	3	0.26	−0.26	2	0	0	1	50%	0	-1
2A. WilsbyAdam WilsbyD	20:41	0	1	1	0	2	0.00	0.00	1	2	0	4	—	0	0
9F. ForsbergFilip ForsbergL	19:48	0	1	1	3	9	0.15	−0.15	1	1	1	5	—	0	+2
41N. HagueNicolas HagueD	18:42	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	−0.01	1	1	1	0	—	2	+1
81J. MarchessaultJonathan MarchessaultR	18:06	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	−0.02	2	0	0	0	—	0	0
18J. DruryJack DruryC	16:41	0	1	1	2	3	0.12	−0.12	0	1	1	2	47%	0	+1
14A. KerfootAlexander KerfootC	14:46	1	1	2	1	1	0.09	+0.91	0	0	1	1	75%	0	+2
71M. WoodMatthew WoodR	13:29	1	0	1	1	1	0.28	+0.72	2	0	0	2	67%	2	0
21N. HoglanderNils HoglanderL	12:48	0	0	0	1	1	0.05	−0.05	2	1	0	0	0%	0	0
79R. ColtonRoss ColtonC	12:15	0	1	1	1	3	0.12	−0.12	2	1	0	1	—	0	0
84A. EdstromAdam EdstromC	10:19	2	0	2	2	3	1.51	+0.49	2	2	0	0	100%	0	+2
49R. SchaeferReid SchaeferL	9:36	0	0	0	2	3	0.08	−0.08	1	1	0	1	100%	0	0
22M. BourqueMavrik BourqueC	8:15	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	−0.05	0	0	0	0	0%	0	0
85W. TrudeauWilliam TrudeauD	4:39	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0	—	0	0
NSH total		5	10	15	20	45	3.14	+1.86	18	16	5	20	49%	6

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Stamkos+0.76

Kerfoot+0.50

Wood+0.22

Forsberg−0.07

O'Reilly−0.09

Edstrom−0.15

Colton−0.22

Schaefer−0.24

Bourque−0.24

Drury−0.26

Hoglander−0.30

Marchessault−0.44

Defence

Josi+0.54

Wilsby+0.09

Skjei+0.02

Perbix−0.10

Trudeau−0.12

Hague−0.37

Goalie

Saros+1.25

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Drury·Colton·Edstrom	5:27	9	4	6	40.0%	1	1	0	0	0.11	0.14	42.5%	−0.04	1	1	50%
O'Reilly·Stamkos·Marchessault	4:35	9	0	4	0.0%	0	2	0	0	0.00	0.21	0.0%	−0.21	1	1	50%
Forsberg·Hoglander·Wood	3:43	6	5	3	62.5%	1	2	0	0	0.07	0.08	46.7%	−0.01	1	0	100%
Kerfoot·O'Reilly·Stamkos	3:07	7	1	2	33.3%	1	1	0	0	0.01	0.06	15.0%	−0.05	1	0	100%
Schaefer·Drury·Colton	2:53	4	1	4	20.0%	1	2	0	0	0.06	0.18	25.3%	−0.12	0	0	—
Schaefer·Bourque·Marchessault	2:35	4	2	3	40.0%	1	1	0	0	0.06	0.22	22.4%	−0.16	0	0	—
Forsberg·Hoglander·Kerfoot	1:45	3	3	2	60.0%	1	2	0	0	0.03	0.07	32.7%	−0.03	0	0	—
Forsberg·Hoglander·O'Reilly	1:37	4	0	7	0.0%	0	2	0	0	0.00	0.26	0.0%	−0.26	0	0	—
Hoglander·O'Reilly·Stamkos	1:23	3	0	2	0.0%	0	2	0	0	0.00	0.05	0.0%	−0.05	1	0	100%
Kerfoot·Bourque·Marchessault	1:16	2	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	1	0	100%
Edstrom·O'Reilly·Stamkos	1:14	1	0	3	0.0%	0	2	0	0	0.00	0.13	0.0%	−0.13	0	0	—
Forsberg·Bourque·Marchessault	1:02	3	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	1	0	100%
Drury·Edstrom·Wood	0:54	1	0	3	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.06	0.0%	−0.06	0	0	—
Hoglander·Schaefer·Kerfoot	0:50	1	0	2	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.10	0.0%	−0.10	0	0	—
Bourque·Stamkos·Marchessault	0:48	1	0	2	0.0%	0	2	0	0	0.00	0.14	0.0%	−0.14	0	0	—
Hoglander·Drury·Edstrom	0:47	1	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Schaefer·Kerfoot·Colton	0:46	2	2	0	100.0%	1	0	1	0	0.16	0.00	100.0%	+0.16	0	0	—
Colton·Edstrom·Wood	0:42	2	2	1	66.7%	0	1	0	0	0.04	0.15	18.7%	−0.12	1	0	100%
Forsberg·O'Reilly·Stamkos	0:42	1	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.05	0.0%	−0.05	0	0	—
O'Reilly·Stamkos·Wood	0:39	1	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Kerfoot·Drury·Wood	0:37	1	0	2	0.0%	0	2	0	0	0.00	0.30	0.0%	−0.30	0	0	—
Forsberg·Colton·Wood	0:34	1	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.01	0.00	100.0%	+0.01	0	0	—
Hoglander·Schaefer·Wood	0:33	1	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Kerfoot·Drury·Stamkos	0:30	2	1	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	100.0%	+0.00	0	0	—
Forsberg·Kerfoot·Bourque	0:30	1	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
NSH 5v5	46:00		29	56	34.1%	10	27	1	1	0.77	2.80	21.6%	−2.03

Goalies

Juuse Saros

NSH · 60:00

Saves: 31/33
SV%: .939
xGA: 3.23
GSAx: +1.23

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	29/31	.935	2.96	+0.96
Power play	1/1	1.000	0.20	+0.20
Shorthanded	1/1	1.000	0.07	+0.07
High danger	4/5	.800	1.19	+0.19

Jacob Fowler

MTL · 58:53

Saves: 15/18
SV%: .833
xGA: 1.70
GSAx: −1.30

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	9/10	.900	0.77	−0.23
Power play	6/8	.750	0.92	−1.08
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	1/2	.500	0.43	−0.57

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Nashville Predators

Minutes

27:49Josi
21:29Skjei
20:47Perbix
20:41Wilsby
18:42Hague
4:39Trudeau

23:04O'Reilly
20:46Stamkos
19:48Forsberg
18:06Marchessault
16:41Drury
14:46Kerfoot
13:29Wood
12:48Hoglander
12:15Colton
10:19Edstrom
9:36Schaefer
8:15Bourque

Matchups

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareNSHMTL

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

JosiD1 O4
WilsbyD1 O1
TrudeauD0 O0
HagueD2 O1
PerbixD4 O1
SkjeiD7 O0
O'ReillyD0 O4
ForsbergD1 O5
WoodD0 O4
StamkosD1 O4
ColtonD0 O3
MarchessaultD1 O3
KerfootD1 O3
HoglanderD0 O2
BourqueD0 O2
EdstromD3 O3
SchaeferD1 O0
DruryD5 O1

Shift starts · darker = later period