DAL @ BUF 4–0 · 2026-10-08

DallasDALStars4

FinalOct 82026-10-08

Team	1	2	3	SOG
DAL	1	3	0	18
BUF	0	0	0	26

KeyBank Center

BuffaloBUFSabres0

CallNo lean · 51% BUF

Star 1M. Rantanen1G 3A
Star 2W. Johnston0G 3A
Star 3R. Hintz1G 0A

Closing linesDraftKings

-122Moneyline+102-1.5 +210Puck line+1.5 -258O +110Total 6.5U -130+135RegulationTie +320 +140-1201st period-110+1801st · 3-wayTie +176 +178

Season odds

83%89%+5.9Playoffs77%72%−5.45.1%5.3%+0.2Cup4.2%3.5%−0.7

Story

– / 9

Result DAL 4–0Call No lean · BUF 51%Market DAL 53%xG 1.95–2.41 · deserved BUF 59%Swing Robertson +17 1st 9:03Method

Goals and penalties with BUF win probability
Time	Event	BUF win before	BUF win after
1st 9:03	Goal DAL · J. Robertson	51%	34%
1st 19:50	BUF penalty · B. Malenstyn · tripping · 2 min
2nd 1:50	DAL penalty · M. Heiskanen · hooking · 2 min
2nd 9:36	Goal DAL · S. Steel	29%	14%
2nd 13:57	Goal DAL · M. Rantanen	12%	4%
2nd 15:01	BUF penalty · J. Quinn · cross checking · 2 min
2nd 15:34	Goal DAL · R. Hintz (PP)	4%	1%
2nd 17:30	DAL penalty · N. Lundkvist · holding · 2 min
3rd 7:54	DAL penalty · L. Bichsel · interference · 2 min

On ice · final horn

DAL5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
12R. FaksaC	0:37	13:11	19	0	0	0	1	5	0	2	0	3-5
15C. BlackwellC	1:44	12:18	16	0	0	0	2	2	0	2	0	1-0
14J. BennL	0:23	12:26	17	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	–
5N. LundkvistD	0:39	18:08	25	0	1	1	0	2	2	1	0	–
23E. LindellD	0:41	21:57	25	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	–
29J. OettingerG		60:00	SA26GA0SV%1.000xGA2.41GSAx+2.41

BUF5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
19P. KrebsC	0:23	16:16	21	0	0	0	1	5	0	3	1	2-4
72T. ThompsonC	0:19	19:08	24	0	0	0	6	8	0	0	0	6-7
91J. DoanR	0:14	16:26	20	0	0	0	1	5	0	3	0	–
8O. ZellwegerD	0:32	17:43	23	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	–
23M. SamuelssonD	0:33	17:39	23	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	–
1U. LuukkonenG		59:54	SA18GA4SV%.778xGA1.95GSAx−2.05

Goals

1st
Jason Robertson(1)
M. Rantanen (1), W. Johnston (1)
xG 0.12snapClip(opens nhl.com)
1–0 DAL1st 09:03+17.266%
2nd
Sam Steel(1)
T. Harley (1), M. Rantanen (2)
xG 0.03snapClip(opens nhl.com)
2–0 DAL2nd 09:36+15.786%
Mikko Rantanen(1)
N. Lundkvist (1), W. Johnston (2)
xG 0.15backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
3–0 DAL2nd 13:57+7.796%
Roope Hintz(1)PP
W. Johnston (3), M. Rantanen (3)
xG 0.13snapClip(opens nhl.com)
4–0 DAL2nd 15:34+2.699%

Shots

DAL1.95 xG30 unblocked · 9 blocked30 unblocked · 9 blocked

BUF2.41 xG44 unblocked · 19 blocked44 unblocked · 19 blocked

GoalSavedMissedBlockedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

DALBUF4Goals01.95xG2.4118Shots2630Unblocked4439Attempts633High danger31/2Power play0/338Faceoffs2322Hits2319Blocks96Takeaways322Giveaways186PIM4

Skaters

Player

Player
55T. HarleyThomas HarleyD	23:35	0	1	1	0	2	0.01	−0.01	0	4	1	1	—	0	+3
23E. LindellEsa LindellD	21:57	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	3	0	3	—	0	+1
4M. HeiskanenMiro HeiskanenD	19:40	0	0	0	1	1	0.00	−0.00	0	1	0	2	—	2	0
5N. LundkvistNils LundkvistD	18:08	0	1	1	0	2	0.00	0.00	1	0	0	1	—	2	+2
6L. BichselLian BichselD	17:34	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	3	4	0	1	—	2	0
57T. MyersTyler MyersD	17:30	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	−0.03	1	0	0	3	—	0	0
53W. JohnstonWyatt JohnstonC	16:40	0	3	3	1	1	0.04	−0.04	0	0	1	1	64%	0	+2
91T. SeguinTyler SeguinC	15:40	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	−0.01	1	0	0	1	0%	0	0
18S. SteelSam SteelC	15:31	1	0	1	1	2	0.17	+0.83	0	1	0	1	50%	0	+2
96M. RantanenMikko RantanenR	15:27	1	3	4	2	2	0.16	+0.84	1	0	0	3	75%	0	+3
21J. RobertsonJason RobertsonL	15:14	1	0	1	4	7	0.48	+0.52	2	0	1	3	—	0	+1
25A. HyryArttu HyryR	15:02	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1	2	0	0	67%	0	0
24R. HintzRoope HintzC	14:57	1	0	1	6	8	0.56	+0.44	0	1	0	2	71%	0	+1
49J. HryckowianJustin HryckowianC	14:48	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	5	0	1	0	—	0	0
10O. BäckOskar BäckC	14:22	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	1	1	0	0	50%	0	0
12R. FaksaRadek FaksaC	13:11	0	0	0	1	5	0.23	−0.23	2	0	1	0	38%	0	0
14J. BennJamie BennL	12:26	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	−0.04	2	0	0	0	—	0	0
15C. BlackwellColin BlackwellC	12:18	0	0	0	2	2	0.22	−0.22	2	0	1	0	100%	0	0
DAL total		4	8	12	18	39	1.95	+2.05	22	17	6	22	62%	6

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Rantanen+1.29

Hintz+0.67

Johnston+0.54

Robertson+0.53

Steel+0.48

Hyry−0.20

Bäck−0.23

Benn−0.29

Faksa−0.31

Blackwell−0.33

Seguin−0.44

Hryckowian−0.49

Defence

Harley+0.45

Heiskanen+0.06

Lundkvist−0.02

Lindell−0.14

Bichsel−0.14

Myers−0.22

Goalie

Oettinger+2.42

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Benn·Robertson·Hintz	9:19	16	12	7	63.2%	5	3	0	0	0.31	0.26	54.1%	+0.05	2	2	50%
Hryckowian·Seguin·Hyry	7:49	13	1	12	7.7%	0	3	0	0	0.01	0.36	3.0%	−0.35	1	5	17%
Steel·Johnston·Rantanen	6:51	12	3	8	27.3%	1	2	1	0	0.28	0.15	64.8%	+0.13	3	1	75%
Bäck·Faksa·Blackwell	6:46	12	8	6	57.1%	3	2	0	0	0.45	0.45	50.4%	+0.01	0	2	0%
Johnston·Seguin·Rantanen	3:33	4	2	2	50.0%	1	1	0	0	0.04	0.10	26.8%	−0.06	1	1	50%
Occasional · 14 groups
Steel·Hryckowian·Hyry	1:26	2	0	3	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.10	0.0%	−0.10	0	0	—
Robertson·Hintz·Seguin	0:51	3	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	1	0	100%
Blackwell·Hryckowian·Hyry	0:48	3	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.04	0.0%	−0.04	0	0	—
Robertson·Hintz·Rantanen	0:44	4	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Bäck·Faksa·Steel	0:43	2	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Steel·Johnston·Seguin	0:41	6	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Bäck·Faksa·Hyry	0:41	1	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.01	0.0%	−0.01	0	1	0%
Faksa·Hryckowian·Seguin	0:39	2	0	2	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.12	0.0%	−0.12	0	0	—
Steel·Seguin·Hyry	0:37	7	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.0%	−0.00	0	1	0%
Benn·Steel·Johnston	0:36	1	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.01	0.00	100.0%	+0.01	0	0	—
Robertson·Johnston·Rantanen	0:35	5	1	0	100.0%	1	0	1	0	0.12	0.00	100.0%	+0.12	0	0	—
Benn·Bäck·Faksa	0:34	3	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Bäck·Blackwell·Hryckowian	0:34	1	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Blackwell·Steel·Hryckowian	0:33	1	0	2	0.0%	0	2	0	0	0.00	0.06	0.0%	−0.06	0	0	—
DAL 5v5	51:21		31	58	34.8%	13	22	3	0	1.30	2.17	37.4%	−0.88

Goalies

Jake Oettinger

DAL · 60:00

Saves: 26/26
SV%: 1.000
xGA: 2.41
GSAx: +2.41

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	22/22	1.000	2.17	+2.17
Power play	4/4	1.000	0.23	+0.23
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	1/1	1.000	0.54	+0.54

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

BUF · 59:54

Saves: 14/18
SV%: .778
xGA: 1.95
GSAx: −2.05

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	10/13	.769	1.30	−1.70
Power play	3/4	.750	0.64	−0.36
Shorthanded	1/1	1.000	0.01	+0.01
High danger	3/3	1.000	0.55	+0.55

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Dallas Stars

Minutes

23:35Harley
21:57Lindell
19:40Heiskanen
18:08Lundkvist
17:34Bichsel
17:30Myers

16:40Johnston
15:40Seguin
15:31Steel
15:27Rantanen
15:14Robertson
15:02Hyry
14:57Hintz
14:48Hryckowian
14:22Bäck
13:11Faksa
12:26Benn
12:18Blackwell

Matchups

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareDALBUF

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

BichselD2 O1
MyersD3 O1
HeiskanenD5 O3
HarleyD4 O1
LindellD7 O3
LundkvistD4 O0
JohnstonD1 O6
HintzD2 O5
RobertsonD2 O5
RantanenD2 O4
SteelD2 O3
BennD2 O2
BlackwellD2 O0
SeguinD5 O2
HryckowianD5 O1
HyryD5 O1
FaksaD6 O0
BäckD6 O0

Shift starts · darker = later period