STL @ COL 1–6 · 2026-10-03

St. LouisSTLBlues1

FinalOct 32026-10-03

Team	1	2	3	SOG
STL	0	0	1	26
COL	2	4	0	36

Ball Arena

ColoradoCOLAvalanche6

CallNo lean · 74% COL

Star 1M. Necas2G 1A
Star 2N. MacKinnon0G 3A
Star 3A. Lehkonen1G 1A

Closing linesDraftKings

+240Moneyline-298+1.5 -105Puck line-1.5 -115O -102Total 6.5U -118+310RegulationTie +380 -170+1601st period-215+2901st · 3-wayTie +185 +113

Season odds

53%59%+5.8Playoffs83%100%+16.93.2%1.2%−2.0Cup9.1%24%+15.1

Story

– / 13

Result COL 6–1Call No lean · COL 74%Market COL 73%xG 2.09–3.71 · deserved COL 76%Swing Makar +12 1st 4:09Method

Goals and penalties with COL win probability
Time	Event	COL win before	COL win after
1st 4:09	Goal COL · C. Makar	74%	86%
1st 9:20	STL penalty · Z. Dean · slashing · 2 min
1st 13:12	Goal COL · M. Necas	86%	94%
2nd 5:38	Goal COL · J. Manson	95%	98%
2nd 6:18	COL penalty · N. Roy · slashing · 2 min
2nd 11:40	Goal COL · A. Lehkonen	99%	99%
2nd 12:52	COL penalty · B. Burns · high sticking · 2 min
2nd 15:03	STL penalty · D. Dvorsky · slashing · 2 min
2nd 18:02	Goal COL · N. Roy	99%	99%
2nd 18:25	Goal COL · M. Necas	99%	99%
3rd 2:34	Goal STL · D. Dvorsky	99%	99%
3rd 7:04	STL penalty · Z. Dean · cross checking · 2 min
3rd 12:31	STL penalty · D. Dube · tripping · 2 min

On ice · final horn

STL5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
89P. BuchnevichL	0:12	15:43	21	0	0	0	2	3	0	1	0	–
15D. DvorskyR	0:15	12:17	19	1	0	1	3	4	2	0	0	4-6
29J. BerggrenR	0:15	14:48	19	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	1	–
4T. LindsteinD	1:07	14:26	19	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	1	–
55C. ParaykoD	1:26	20:45	26	0	0	0	2	5	0	3	3	–
50J. BinningtonG		60:00	SA36GA6SV%.833xGA3.71GSAx−2.29

COL5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
10N. RoyC	0:13	12:53	18	1	1	2	3	4	2	3	1	4-3
91N. KadriC	1:07	18:27	23	0	0	0	4	7	0	0	1	3-2
13T. HughesR	1:06	19:56	19	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	2-1
47N. JuulsenD	1:08	10:55	15	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	1	–
70S. MalinskiD	1:09	15:37	19	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	–
39M. BlackwoodG		60:00	SA26GA1SV%.962xGA2.09GSAx+1.09

Goals

1st
Cale Makar(1)
M. Necas (1), N. MacKinnon (1)
xG 0.19wristClip(opens nhl.com)
0–1 COL1st 04:09+11.986%
Martin Necas(1)
N. MacKinnon (2), A. Lehkonen (1)
xG 0.17snapClip(opens nhl.com)
0–2 COL1st 13:12+8.194%
2nd
Josh Manson(1)
N. Roy (1), P. Kelly (1)
xG 0.02snapClip(opens nhl.com)
0–3 COL2nd 05:38+3.898%
Artturi Lehkonen(1)
Unassisted
xG 0.28snapClip(opens nhl.com)
0–4 COL2nd 11:40+0.899%
Nicolas Roy(1)
P. Kelly (2), J. Manson (1)
xG 0.13wristClip(opens nhl.com)
0–5 COL2nd 18:02+0.099%
Martin Necas(2)
G. Landeskog (1), N. MacKinnon (3)
xG 0.17backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
0–6 COL2nd 18:25+0.099%
3rd
Dalibor Dvorsky(1)
T. Lindstein (1)
xG 0.12backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
1–6 COL3rd 02:34+0.01%

Shots

STL2.09 xG38 unblocked · 17 blocked38 unblocked · 17 blocked

COL3.71 xG49 unblocked · 17 blocked49 unblocked · 17 blocked

GoalSavedMissedBlockedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

STLCOL1Goals62.09xG3.7126Shots3638Unblocked4955Attempts664High danger80/2Power play0/429Faceoffs3728Hits1617Blocks173Takeaways410Giveaways178PIM4

Skaters

Player

Player
17C. FowlerCam FowlerD	23:24	0	0	0	1	2	0.00	−0.00	0	3	0	1	—	0	0
55C. ParaykoColton ParaykoD	20:45	0	0	0	2	5	0.15	−0.15	3	3	0	0	—	0	-3
6P. BrobergPhilip BrobergD	20:16	0	0	0	3	5	0.02	−0.02	1	1	0	0	—	0	-4
36A. JiricekAdam JiricekD	19:43	0	0	0	1	6	0.21	−0.21	2	1	1	2	—	0	-2
25B. CarloBrandon CarloD	17:36	0	0	0	2	2	0.03	−0.03	3	1	0	2	—	0	0
18R. ThomasRobert ThomasC	16:30	0	0	0	0	2	0.18	−0.18	0	1	1	1	33%	0	-2
22P. SuterPius SuterC	16:14	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.00	1	0	0	1	36%	0	-1
89P. BuchnevichPavel BuchnevichL	15:43	0	0	0	2	3	0.13	−0.13	1	0	0	1	—	0	0
81D. HollowayDylan HollowayL	15:35	0	0	0	2	3	0.38	−0.38	3	1	0	0	—	0	-3
77C. McMichaelConnor McMichaelL	15:19	0	0	0	2	4	0.03	−0.03	1	0	0	0	—	0	0
83M. McTavishMason McTavishC	14:57	0	0	0	3	3	0.16	−0.16	2	0	0	0	67%	0	0
21J. SnuggerudJimmy SnuggerudR	14:51	0	0	0	1	5	0.01	−0.01	3	0	0	1	—	0	-2
29J. BerggrenJonatan BerggrenR	14:48	0	0	0	3	5	0.26	−0.26	0	0	0	0	—	0	-2
4T. LindsteinTheo LindsteinD	14:26	0	1	1	0	2	0.01	−0.01	0	1	1	0	—	0	-1
63J. NeighboursJake NeighboursL	13:43	0	0	0	1	2	0.13	−0.13	5	2	0	1	—	0	-1
65D. DubeDillon DubeC	13:16	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1	0	0	0	—	2	-1
52Z. DeanZach DeanC	12:37	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	2	0	0	0	33%	4	-2
15D. DvorskyDalibor DvorskyR	12:17	1	0	1	3	4	0.37	+0.63	0	0	0	0	40%	2	-1
STL total		1	1	2	26	55	2.09	−1.09	28	14	3	10	44%	8

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Dvorsky+0.25

McMichael−0.06

Buchnevich−0.26

Neighbours−0.28

McTavish−0.28

Holloway−0.33

Thomas−0.33

Snuggerud−0.34

Berggren−0.35

Suter−0.39

Dean−0.58

Dube−0.59

Defence

Lindstein+0.32

Fowler+0.10

Parayko0.00

Carlo0.00

Jiricek−0.16

Broberg−0.33

Goalie

Binnington−2.26

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Suter·Dean·Dube	10:26	17	5	10	33.3%	1	4	0	1	0.17	0.88	16.3%	−0.71	1	2	33%
Holloway·Thomas·Snuggerud	9:16	14	10	10	50.0%	4	3	0	2	0.67	0.44	60.5%	+0.23	2	2	50%
McMichael·Buchnevich·McTavish	7:26	12	9	5	64.3%	3	2	0	0	0.11	0.20	35.6%	−0.09	4	0	100%
Neighbours·Dvorsky·Berggren	6:33	11	6	11	35.3%	3	6	1	2	0.19	0.61	23.7%	−0.42	1	3	25%
Occasional · 7 groups
Buchnevich·Dvorsky·Berggren	3:08	5	4	3	57.1%	4	1	0	0	0.40	0.09	81.4%	+0.31	0	0	—
Neighbours·McMichael·McTavish	1:53	3	3	1	75.0%	2	1	0	0	0.17	0.04	81.9%	+0.13	2	0	100%
Buchnevich·McTavish·Berggren	0:56	6	1	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.01	0.00	100.0%	+0.01	0	0	—
Neighbours·Suter·Berggren	0:44	4	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Neighbours·McTavish·Berggren	0:35	2	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.01	0.0%	−0.01	0	0	—
Holloway·McTavish·Snuggerud	0:32	2	0	2	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.03	0.0%	−0.03	0	0	—
Holloway·Dean·Snuggerud	0:32	1	3	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.02	0.00	100.0%	+0.02	0	0	—
STL 5v5	48:00		49	55	47.1%	22	28	1	6	1.92	3.06	38.5%	−1.14

Goalies

Jordan Binnington

STL · 60:00

Saves: 30/36
SV%: .833
xGA: 3.71
GSAx: −2.29

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	22/28	.786	3.06	−2.94
Power play	8/8	1.000	0.65	+0.65
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	3/7	.429	1.71	−2.29

Mackenzie Blackwood

COL · 60:00

Saves: 25/26
SV%: .962
xGA: 2.09
GSAx: +1.09

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	21/22	.955	1.92	+0.92
Power play	3/3	1.000	0.16	+0.16
Shorthanded	1/1	1.000	0.00	+0.00
High danger	2/2	1.000	0.91	+0.91

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

St. Louis Blues

Minutes

23:24Fowler
20:45Parayko
20:16Broberg
19:43Jiricek
17:36Carlo
14:26Lindstein

16:30Thomas
16:14Suter
15:43Buchnevich
15:35Holloway
15:19McMichael
14:57McTavish
14:51Snuggerud
14:48Berggren
13:43Neighbours
13:16Dube
12:37Dean
12:17Dvorsky

Matchups

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareSTLCOL

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

JiricekD1 O3
FowlerD4 O2
LindsteinD3 O0
CarloD4 O0
ParaykoD7 O1
BrobergD8 O2
McTavishD0 O6
McMichaelD2 O7
BuchnevichD2 O5
SnuggerudD1 O3
HollowayD3 O4
DeanD1 O2
DubeD2 O2
NeighboursD4 O4
SuterD3 O2
BerggrenD2 O1
DvorskyD3 O2
ThomasD5 O3

Shift starts · darker = later period