TBL @ BUF 8–3 · 2026-11-11

Team	1	2	3	SOG
TBL	2	2	4	22
BUF	0	2	1	31

Story

– / 20

Result TBL 8–3Call No lean · TBL 56%Market TBL 54%xG 3.60–3.46 · deserved TBL 53%Swing Sabourin +18 1st 18:49Method

Goals and penalties with BUF win probability
Time	Event	BUF win before	BUF win after
1st 7:02	BUF penalty · Z. Benson · hooking · 2 min
1st 10:13	TBL penalty · E. Cernak · tripping · 2 min
1st 18:49	Goal TBL · S. Sabourin	45%	27%
1st 19:22	BUF penalty · J. Doan · delaying game puck over glass · 2 min
1st 19:38	Goal TBL · J. Carlson (PP)	27%	14%
2nd 4:33	Goal TBL · B. Hagel	13%	5%
2nd 6:24	TBL penalty · P. Holmberg · holding the stick · 2 min
2nd 13:02	Goal TBL · Y. Gourde	3%	1%
2nd 14:06	TBL penalty · I. Mikheyev · roughing · 2 min
2nd 15:54	Goal BUF · J. Doan (PP)	1%	3%
2nd 19:32	Goal BUF · J. Zucker	2%	8%
3rd 0:33	Goal BUF · T. Thompson	7%	21%
3rd 1:25	Goal TBL · N. Kucherov	21%	7%
3rd 4:11	Goal TBL · N. Kucherov	6%	1%
3rd 4:42	BUF penalty · J. Norris · roughing · 2 min
3rd 4:42	TBL penalty · J. Moser · high sticking · 2 min
3rd 7:54	BUF penalty · R. McLeod · slashing · 2 min
3rd 13:18	BUF penalty · J. Quinn · interference · 2 min
3rd 14:13	Goal TBL · N. Kucherov (PP)	1%	1%
3rd 15:06	Goal TBL · B. Hagel	1%	1%

On ice · final horn

TBL5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
94C. GeekieC	0:13	10:05	17	0	1	1	2	2	0	5	0	2-4
25J. VielL	0:56	8:31	12	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	0-1
49S. SabourinR	0:13	7:18	13	1	0	1	1	2	0	3	0	–
27R. McDonaghD	0:13	22:40	26	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	–
74J. CarlsonD	0:13	22:43	28	1	4	5	1	2	0	0	3	–
88A. VasilevskiyG		60:00	SA31GA3SV%.903xGA3.46GSAx+0.46

BUF5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
10S. CarrickC	0:29	6:40	11	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	3-2
71R. McLeodC	1:04	13:22	20	0	1	1	1	2	2	1	0	5-3
29B. MalenstynL	0:56	9:59	16	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	0	–
25O. PowerD	1:04	23:12	27	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	–
73Z. MetsaD	1:19	12:07	14	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	–
92C. EllisG		18:32	SA8GA3SV%.625xGA0.83GSAx−2.17

Goals

1st
Scott Sabourin(1)
C. Geekie (1), J. Guentzel (9)
xG 0.37snapClip(opens nhl.com)
1–0 TBL1st 18:49+18.073%
John Carlson(6)PP
J. Guentzel (10), C. D'Astous (9)
xG 0.12snapClip(opens nhl.com)
2–0 TBL1st 19:38+13.486%
2nd
Brandon Hagel(10)
A. Cirelli (7), J. Carlson (6)
xG 0.32snapClip(opens nhl.com)
3–0 TBL2nd 04:33+7.595%
Yanni Gourde(1)
J. Guentzel (11), S. O'Reilly (1)
xG 0.20snapClip(opens nhl.com)
4–0 TBL2nd 13:02+2.499%
Josh Doan(4)PP
R. McLeod (3), J. Norris (2)
xG 0.29tip-inClip(opens nhl.com)
4–1 TBL2nd 15:54+2.13%
Jason Zucker(2)
N. Ostlund (7), J. Quinn (8)
xG 0.09snapClip(opens nhl.com)
4–2 TBL2nd 19:32+5.68%
3rd
Tage Thompson(11)
P. Krebs (9), M. Samuelsson (9)
xG 0.02slapClip(opens nhl.com)
4–3 TBL3rd 00:33+14.121%
Nikita Kucherov(6)
B. Hagel (10), J. Carlson (7)
xG 0.40backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
5–3 TBL3rd 01:25+14.093%
Nikita Kucherov(7)
J. Carlson (8), A. Cirelli (8)
xG 0.17slapClip(opens nhl.com)
6–3 TBL3rd 04:11+4.499%
Nikita Kucherov(8)PP
J. Carlson (9), J. Guentzel (12)
xG 0.11slapClip(opens nhl.com)
7–3 TBL3rd 14:13+0.099%
Brandon Hagel(11)
N. Kucherov (18), A. Cirelli (9)
xG 0.16snapClip(opens nhl.com)
8–3 TBL3rd 15:06+0.099%

Shots

Shooters

15

TBL3.60 xG30 unblocked · 4 blocked30 unblocked · 4 blocked

BUF3.46 xG50 unblocked · 11 blocked50 unblocked · 11 blocked

Goal, taller = higher xGSavedMissedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

TBLBUF8Goals33.60xG3.4622Shots3130Unblocked5034Attempts6110High danger32/4Power play1/334Faceoffs3233Hits1711Blocks41Takeaways017Giveaways138PIM10

Skaters

Player

Player
74J. CarlsonJohn CarlsonD	22:43	1	4	5	1	2	0.12	+0.88	0	3	0	1	—	0	+4
27R. McDonaghRyan McDonaghD	22:40	0	0	0	1	2	0.10	−0.10	0	1	1	2	—	0	-2
90J. MoserJ.J. MoserD	22:24	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	−0.00	2	1	0	1	—	2	0
59J. GuentzelJake GuentzelC	20:27	0	4	4	1	1	0.22	−0.22	1	0	0	2	50%	0	+2
51C. D'AstousCharle-Edouard D'AstousD	20:04	0	1	1	1	2	0.01	−0.01	2	1	0	1	—	0	+5
77V. HedmanVictor HedmanD	19:18	0	0	0	0	1	0.06	−0.06	2	1	0	0	—	0	+1
28Z. GirgensonsZemgus GirgensonsC	18:01	0	0	0	1	1	0.03	−0.03	6	0	0	1	54%	0	-1
86N. KucherovNikita KucherovR	17:30	3	1	4	5	6	0.77	+2.23	0	0	0	1	—	0	+3
38B. HagelBrandon HagelL	17:10	2	1	3	5	5	0.79	+1.21	1	0	0	2	—	0	+4
95I. MikheyevIlya MikheyevR	16:16	0	0	0	0	2	0.18	−0.18	1	0	0	2	—	2	-2
29P. HolmbergPontus HolmbergR	15:42	0	0	0	1	3	0.05	−0.05	1	0	0	2	—	2	-1
71A. CirelliAnthony CirelliC	15:11	0	3	3	1	1	0.35	−0.35	0	1	0	0	62%	0	+2
37Y. GourdeYanni GourdeC	14:56	1	0	1	2	2	0.27	+0.73	2	0	0	1	75%	0	+1
23S. O'ReillySam O'ReillyR	12:56	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0.00	2	1	0	0	30%	0	+2
81E. CernakErik CernakD	11:00	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	1	0	0	—	2	0
94C. GeekieConor GeekieC	10:05	0	1	1	2	2	0.23	−0.23	5	0	0	0	33%	0	+1
25J. VielJeffrey VielL	8:31	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	5	0	0	0	0%	0	0
49S. SabourinScott SabourinR	7:18	1	0	1	1	2	0.42	+0.58	3	0	0	1	—	0	+1
TBL total		8	16	24	22	34	3.60	+4.40	33	10	1	17	52%	8

Pony score

Incredible9.0+Great7.5+Good6.0+Average4.0+Below avg2.5+HorribleMethod

Forwards

Kucherov10.0

Hagel9.4

Guentzel8.1

Sabourin7.6

Cirelli7.6

Geekie7.1

Gourde6.7

O'Reilly5.4

Viel4.2

Holmberg3.0

Girgensons1.9

Mikheyev0.8

Defence

Carlson10.0

D'Astous6.5

Hedman4.8

Cernak3.3

Moser3.2

McDonagh2.6

Goalie

Vasilevskiy5.5

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Girgensons·Holmberg·Mikheyev	10:48	17	6	12	33.3%	2	9	0	1	0.27	0.66	28.8%	−0.39	2	4	33%
Gourde·Guentzel·O'Reilly	9:05	14	3	6	33.3%	2	2	1	0	0.27	0.29	48.3%	−0.02	2	2	50%
Hagel·Cirelli·Kucherov	7:58	15	8	10	44.4%	6	3	3	0	1.05	0.37	74.0%	+0.68	4	0	100%
Viel·Geekie·Sabourin	6:18	11	1	3	25.0%	0	2	0	0	0.05	0.17	23.2%	−0.12	0	2	0%
Girgensons·Gourde·Mikheyev	2:42	3	1	5	16.7%	0	1	0	0	0.05	0.42	10.1%	−0.37	0	0	—
Occasional · 10 groups
Hagel·Guentzel·Kucherov	1:03	1	1	1	50.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.03	0.0%	−0.03	0	0	—
Gourde·Guentzel·Kucherov	0:58	1	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Viel·Guentzel·Kucherov	0:43	1	0	3	0.0%	0	2	0	0	0.00	0.11	0.0%	−0.11	0	0	—
Girgensons·Gourde·Guentzel	0:42	4	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Hagel·Cirelli·Holmberg	0:36	2	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Guentzel·Holmberg·Kucherov	0:35	1	0	2	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.21	0.0%	−0.21	0	0	—
Gourde·Guentzel·Geekie	0:32	3	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.0%	−0.00	0	0	—
Hagel·O'Reilly·Kucherov	0:32	2	1	4	20.0%	1	2	1	0	0.40	0.15	72.6%	+0.25	0	0	—
Cirelli·Kucherov·Mikheyev	0:14	4	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.02	0.0%	−0.02	0	0	—
Guentzel·Geekie·Sabourin	0:10	2	2	0	100.0%	2	0	1	0	0.53	0.00	100.0%	+0.53	0	0	—
Other 33 brief groups	4:02		1	2	33.3%	1	2	0	0	0.09	0.11	44.6%	−0.02
TBL 5v5	46:58		24	50	32.4%	14	26	6	2	2.71	2.54	51.6%	+0.17

Goalies

Andrei Vasilevskiy

TBL · 60:00

Saves: 28/31
SV%: .903
GAA: 3.00
xGA: 3.46
GSAx: +0.46

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	24/26	.923	2.54	+0.54
Power play	4/5	.800	0.91	−0.09
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.01	+0.01
High danger	0/1	.000	0.81	−0.19

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

BUF · 41:25

Saves: 9/14
SV%: .643
GAA: 7.24
xGA: 2.77
GSAx: −2.23

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	7/11	.636	2.31	−1.69
Power play	2/3	.667	0.46	−0.54
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	3/7	.429	2.01	−1.99

Colten Ellis

BUF · 18:32

Saves: 5/8
SV%: .625
GAA: 9.71
xGA: 0.83
GSAx: −2.17

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	3/5	.600	0.63	−1.37
Power play	2/3	.667	0.20	−0.80
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	1/3	.333	0.51	−1.49

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Tampa Bay Lightning

Minutes

22:43Carlson
22:40McDonagh
22:24Moser
20:04D'Astous
19:18Hedman
11:00Cernak

20:27Guentzel
18:01Girgensons
17:30Kucherov
17:10Hagel
16:16Mikheyev
15:42Holmberg
15:11Cirelli
14:56Gourde
12:56O'Reilly
10:05Geekie
8:31Viel
7:18Sabourin

Matchups

Full game

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareTBLBUFGoalHard matchEdge bars = skater 5v5 total

Faceoffs

Both teams · pick a taker to focus

34–3252%

D 58%14–10N 43%9–12O 52%11–10 8 won into a shot

BUF attacks1410TBL DZ 58% BUF OZ

Neutral912TBL NZ 43% BUF NZ

TBL attacks1110TBL OZ 52% BUF DZ

32–3448%

D 48%10–11N 57%12–9O 42%10–14 6 won into a shot

Bead = draw, winner’s colourClockwise from the top in game order Shot attempt within 10sHover a zone for its draws · click a taker to focus

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

CarlsonD1 O6
D'AstousD1 O4
HedmanD1 O2
MoserD4 O3
McDonaghD5 O2
CernakD5 O0
KucherovD1 O7
GuentzelD2 O6
CirelliD2 O5
HagelD1 O4
O'ReillyD3 O6
GourdeD2 O2
VielD1 O0
GeekieD2 O1
SabourinD2 O0
MikheyevD5 O2
HolmbergD6 O2
GirgensonsD7 O1

Shift starts · darker = later period