TBL @ VGK 6–2 · 2026-10-20

Tampa BayTBLLightning6

FinalOct 202026-10-20

Team	1	2	3	SOG
TBL	2	3	1	21
VGK	2	0	0	34

T-Mobile Arena

VegasVGKGolden Knights2

CallVGK50%mkt 50%-110Miss

Star 1A. Vasilevskiy.941 SV%
Star 2N. Kucherov1G 2A
Star 3A. Cirelli2G 0A

Closing linesDraftKings

-110Moneyline-110+1.5 -270Puck line-1.5 +220O +102Total 6.5U -122+135RegulationTie +310 +145-1201st period-110+1761st · 3-wayTie +180 +178

Season odds

97%96%−0.5Playoffs99%97%−1.616%15%−1.2Cup11%8.7%−2.3

Story

– / 15

Result TBL 6–2Call VGK 50% Market VGK 50%xG 2.92–4.43 · deserved VGK 73%Swing Cirelli +21 2nd 6:44Method

Goals and penalties with VGK win probability
Time	Event	VGK win before	VGK win after
1st 3:32	VGK penalty · D. Coghlan · holding · 2 min
1st 4:11	Goal TBL · B. Hagel (PP)	50%	34%
1st 7:38	TBL penalty · C. Geekie · unsportsmanlike conduct · 2 min
1st 13:16	Goal VGK · I. Barbashev	32%	50%
1st 14:04	Goal TBL · J. Carlson	50%	32%
1st 17:06	VGK penalty · B. McNabb · high sticking · 2 min
1st 18:30	Goal VGK · M. Stone (SH)	31%	50%
2nd 1:18	VGK penalty · M. Marner · tripping · 2 min
2nd 1:41	TBL penalty · C. D'Astous · interference · 2 min
2nd 6:44	Goal TBL · A. Cirelli	50%	29%
2nd 10:09	Goal TBL · A. Cirelli	28%	13%
2nd 12:31	TBL penalty · P. Holmberg · holding · 2 min
2nd 17:56	Goal TBL · V. Hedman	10%	3%
3rd 1:24	TBL penalty · E. Lilleberg · cross checking · 2 min
3rd 5:16	Goal TBL · N. Kucherov	1%	1%

On ice · final horn

TBL5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
93G. GoncalvesC	0:29	15:27	19	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	1-0
94C. GeekieC	0:41	14:33	19	0	0	0	1	2	2	3	1	3-4
25J. VielL	0:41	12:58	18	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	1	–
51C. D'AstousD	1:04	12:52	17	0	1	1	0	2	2	0	1	–
74J. CarlsonD	0:44	17:46	23	1	0	1	4	5	0	0	1	–
88A. VasilevskiyG		59:57	SA34GA2SV%.941xGA4.43GSAx+2.43

VGK5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
17M. GatcombC	0:55	12:46	15	0	0	0	1	2	0	5	0	–
21B. HowdenC	0:35	14:50	18	0	0	0	1	3	0	6	0	–
36R. LavoieC	0:42	11:57	13	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	1-0
3B. McNabbD	1:41	17:46	23	0	0	0	2	4	2	0	1	–
27S. TheodoreD	1:39	20:36	24	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	3	–
79C. HartG		59:46	SA21GA6SV%.714xGA2.92GSAx−3.08

Goals

1st
Brandon Hagel(1)PP
C. D'Astous (1), N. Kucherov (1)
xG 0.08tip-inClip(opens nhl.com)
1–0 TBL1st 04:11+16.466%
Ivan Barbashev(1)
M. Marner (1)
xG 0.06snapClip(opens nhl.com)
1–1 Tied1st 13:16+17.850%
John Carlson(1)
Unassisted
xG 0.20wristClip(opens nhl.com)
2–1 TBL1st 14:04+17.968%
Mark Stone(1)SH
B. Bowman (1)
xG 0.19snapClip(opens nhl.com)
2–2 Tied1st 18:30+18.850%
2nd
Anthony Cirelli(1)
N. Kucherov (2)
xG 0.33wristClip(opens nhl.com)
3–2 TBL2nd 06:44+20.871%
Anthony Cirelli(2)
Unassisted
xG 0.20snapClip(opens nhl.com)
4–2 TBL2nd 10:09+15.587%
Victor Hedman(1)
Unassisted
xG 0.01wristClip(opens nhl.com)
5–2 TBL2nd 17:56+6.797%
3rd
Nikita Kucherov(1)
Unassisted
xG 0.41snapClip(opens nhl.com)
6–2 TBL3rd 05:16+0.899%

Shots

Shooters

TBL2.92 xG38 unblocked · 18 blocked38 unblocked · 18 blocked

VGK4.43 xG49 unblocked · 13 blocked49 unblocked · 13 blocked

Goal, taller = higher xGSavedMissedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

TBLVGK6Goals22.92xG4.4321Shots3438Unblocked4956Attempts625High danger111/3Power play0/433Faceoffs2513Hits2413Blocks184Takeaways322Giveaways188PIM6

Skaters

Player

Player
81E. CernakErik CernakD	20:30	0	0	0	0	4	0.01	−0.01	3	1	0	0	—	0	0
38B. HagelBrandon HagelL	18:55	1	0	1	3	10	0.60	+0.40	0	0	0	1	—	0	+2
86N. KucherovNikita KucherovR	18:19	1	2	3	2	3	0.43	+0.57	0	0	0	2	—	0	+3
59J. GuentzelJake GuentzelC	18:16	0	0	0	0	2	0.12	−0.12	0	2	0	2	38%	0	+3
74J. CarlsonJohn CarlsonD	17:46	1	0	1	4	5	0.31	+0.69	0	1	0	3	—	0	+3
27R. McDonaghRyan McDonaghD	17:42	0	0	0	0	2	0.10	−0.10	0	0	0	2	—	0	0
95I. MikheyevIlya MikheyevR	17:35	0	0	0	2	3	0.11	−0.11	0	0	0	0	—	0	0
28Z. GirgensonsZemgus GirgensonsC	17:21	0	0	0	2	5	0.13	−0.13	1	2	1	1	63%	0	0
90J. MoserJ.J. MoserD	17:05	0	0	0	1	1	0.01	−0.01	0	0	0	3	—	0	+3
77V. HedmanVictor HedmanD	16:52	1	0	1	2	5	0.04	+0.96	0	2	0	0	—	0	+2
21B. PointBrayden PointC	16:39	0	0	0	1	2	0.18	−0.18	0	0	0	0	58%	0	+2
93G. GoncalvesGage GoncalvesC	15:27	0	0	0	0	3	0.00	0.00	0	0	1	0	100%	0	0
78E. LillebergEmil LillebergD	15:03	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	2	0	0	2	—	2	+1
94C. GeekieConor GeekieC	14:33	0	0	0	1	2	0.04	−0.04	3	1	1	1	43%	2	-1
29P. HolmbergPontus HolmbergR	13:40	0	0	0	1	2	0.14	−0.14	1	2	1	1	100%	2	-2
25J. VielJeffrey VielL	12:58	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	−0.07	3	1	0	0	—	0	0
51C. D'AstousCharle-Edouard D'AstousD	12:52	0	1	1	0	2	0.00	0.00	0	1	0	3	—	2	-2
71A. CirelliAnthony CirelliC	10:30	2	0	2	2	3	0.64	+1.36	0	0	0	1	62%	0	+1
TBL total		6	3	9	21	56	2.92	+3.08	13	13	4	22	57%	8

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Cirelli+1.25

Kucherov+1.05

Hagel+0.52

Point−0.15

Guentzel−0.21

Viel−0.22

Mikheyev−0.32

Girgensons−0.35

Goncalves−0.39

Geekie−0.48

Holmberg−0.51

Defence

Hedman+0.59

Carlson+0.42

Moser+0.01

D'Astous0.00

Cernak−0.29

McDonagh−0.31

Lilleberg−0.42

Goalie

Vasilevskiy+2.46

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Girgensons·Holmberg·Mikheyev	10:01	23	9	11	45.0%	1	7	0	0	0.36	0.79	31.3%	−0.43	2	1	67%
Point·Guentzel·Goncalves	4:52	8	9	2	81.8%	4	2	2	0	0.47	0.09	84.2%	+0.38	1	3	25%
Hagel·Cirelli·Kucherov	4:44	7	6	2	75.0%	2	2	1	0	0.48	0.13	78.4%	+0.35	2	1	67%
Viel·Goncalves·Geekie	4:13	6	1	3	25.0%	0	2	0	0	0.00	0.20	0.0%	−0.20	0	1	0%
Point·Guentzel·Kucherov	3:23	4	3	4	42.9%	2	1	0	0	0.05	0.22	18.0%	−0.18	0	3	0%
Hagel·Point·Kucherov	3:06	6	3	2	60.0%	2	0	1	0	0.45	0.19	70.2%	+0.26	2	0	100%
Viel·Hagel·Geekie	2:49	6	4	4	50.0%	1	1	0	0	0.13	0.14	48.0%	−0.01	0	0	—
Occasional · 11 groups
Viel·Guentzel·Geekie	1:16	4	1	1	50.0%	1	0	0	0	0.01	0.00	100.0%	+0.01	0	0	—
Guentzel·Goncalves·Geekie	1:16	6	3	1	75.0%	1	1	0	0	0.04	0.04	48.8%	−0.00	1	0	100%
Viel·Geekie·Holmberg	0:59	6	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.07	0.00	100.0%	+0.07	1	0	100%
Hagel·Point·Goncalves	0:59	2	3	1	75.0%	0	1	0	0	0.04	0.00	92.1%	+0.03	0	1	0%
Guentzel·Cirelli·Kucherov	0:55	1	1	2	33.3%	1	2	1	0	0.20	0.32	38.8%	−0.12	1	0	100%
Viel·Girgensons·Mikheyev	0:45	1	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.0%	−0.00	0	1	0%
Viel·Geekie·Kucherov	0:40	3	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Viel·Girgensons·Goncalves	0:36	1	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Girgensons·Kucherov·Mikheyev	0:30	3	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Hagel·Cirelli·Goncalves	0:30	1	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Point·Goncalves·Holmberg	0:13	1	0	2	0.0%	0	2	0	1	0.00	0.26	0.0%	−0.26	0	0	—
Other 35 brief groups	6:54		3	10	23.1%	2	3	0	0	0.05	0.39	10.3%	−0.35
TBL 5v5	48:41		47	47	50.0%	17	25	5	1	2.34	2.79	45.7%	−0.44

Goalies

Andrei Vasilevskiy

TBL · 59:57

Saves: 32/34
SV%: .941
GAA: 2.00
xGA: 4.43
GSAx: +2.43

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	25/26	.962	3.00	+2.00
Power play	6/6	1.000	0.79	+0.79
Shorthanded	1/2	.500	0.65	−0.35
High danger	8/9	.889	2.45	+1.45

Carter Hart

VGK · 59:46

Saves: 15/21
SV%: .714
GAA: 6.02
xGA: 2.92
GSAx: −3.08

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	13/18	.722	2.51	−2.49
Power play	0/1	.000	0.32	−0.68
Shorthanded	2/2	1.000	0.09	+0.09
High danger	1/5	.200	1.30	−2.70

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Tampa Bay Lightning

Minutes

20:30Cernak
17:46Carlson
17:42McDonagh
17:05Moser
16:52Hedman
15:03Lilleberg
12:52D'Astous

18:55Hagel
18:19Kucherov
18:16Guentzel
17:35Mikheyev
17:21Girgensons
16:39Point
15:27Goncalves
14:33Geekie
13:40Holmberg
12:58Viel
10:30Cirelli

Matchups

Full game

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareTBLVGKGoalHard matchEdge bars = skater 5v5 total

Faceoffs

Both teams · pick a taker to focus

33–2557%

D 56%14–11N 53%8–7O 61%11–7 4 won into a shot

VGK attacks1411TBL DZ 56% VGK OZ

Neutral87TBL NZ 53% VGK NZ

TBL attacks117TBL OZ 61% VGK DZ

25–3343%

D 39%7–11N 47%7–8O 44%11–14 3 won into a shot

Bead = draw, winner’s colourClockwise from the top in game order Shot attempt within 10sHover a zone for its draws · click a taker to focus

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

MoserD1 O4
CarlsonD3 O5
D'AstousD1 O3
McDonaghD3 O3
CernakD4 O3
LillebergD5 O2
HedmanD5 O1
CirelliD1 O5
KucherovD4 O7
HolmbergD1 O3
GuentzelD5 O5
PointD5 O5
HagelD4 O4
VielD1 O1
GoncalvesD2 O2
GeekieD0 O0
GirgensonsD4 O2
MikheyevD4 O2

Shift starts · darker = later period