BUF @ TOR 5–4 · 2026-10-15

BuffaloBUFSabres5

Final/OTOct 152026-10-15

Team	1	2	3	OT	SOG
BUF	1	1	2	1	35
TOR	2	2	0	0	30

Scotiabank Arena

TorontoTORMaple Leafs4

CallNo lean · 48% TOR

Star 1K. Marchenko3G 0A
Star 2J. Quinn2G 2A
Star 3O. Power1G 0A

Closing linesDraftKings

-102Moneyline-118+1.5 -245Puck line-1.5 +200O -130Total 6.5U +110+145RegulationTie +320 +130-1101st period-120+1781st · 3-wayTie +190 +167

Season odds

56%56%−0.5Playoffs19%10%−8.51.5%2.3%+0.8Cup0.2%0.1%−0.1

Story

– / 18

Result BUF 5–4 OTCall No lean · BUF 52%Market TOR 52%xG 3.05–3.05 · deserved TOR 50%Swing Power +49 OT 3:14Method

Goals and penalties with TOR win probability
Time	Event	TOR win before	TOR win after
1st 2:24	Goal TOR · A. Matthews	48%	64%
1st 3:35	Goal BUF · J. Quinn	64%	48%
1st 12:32	BUF penalty · S. Carrick · hooking · 2 min
1st 13:10	Goal TOR · K. Marchenko (PP)	48%	66%
1st 18:12	BUF penalty · D. Gilbert · roughing · 2 min
1st 18:12	BUF penalty · S. Carrick · high sticking · 2 min
1st 18:12	TOR penalty · O. Ekman-Larsson · roughing · 2 min
2nd 2:41	Goal BUF · J. Quinn	68%	48%
2nd 11:13	Goal TOR · K. Marchenko	49%	71%
2nd 14:35	TOR penalty · O. Ekman-Larsson · holding · 2 min
2nd 15:53	BUF penalty · J. Quinn · fighting · 5 min
2nd 15:53	TOR penalty · T. Stecher · fighting · 5 min
2nd 16:51	Goal TOR · K. Marchenko	73%	89%
2nd 18:07	TOR penalty · M. Rielly · hooking · 2 min
2nd 18:33	BUF penalty · Z. Benson · interference · 2 min
3rd 10:05	Goal BUF · D. Gilbert	96%	83%
3rd 12:16	Goal BUF · M. Samuelsson	85%	49%
OT 3:14	Goal BUF · O. Power	49%	0%

On ice · final horn

BUF3 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
86N. OstlundC	0:33	21:39	29	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	5-10
22J. QuinnR	0:16	18:04	25	2	1	3	4	7	5	0	1	–
25O. PowerD	0:54	28:01	32	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	–
1U. LuukkonenG		63:14	SA30GA4SV%.867xGA3.05GSAx−0.95

TOR3 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
96J. RoslovicC	0:14	19:04	25	0	1	1	5	5	0	0	1	–
86K. MarchenkoR	0:27	18:36	24	3	0	3	3	5	0	3	0	–
44M. RiellyD	0:13	18:35	29	0	0	0	3	3	2	0	0	–
72S. BobrovskyG		63:14	SA34GA4SV%.882xGA2.88GSAx−1.12

Goals

1st
Auston Matthews(1)
J. Roslovic (1)
xG 0.24wristClip(opens nhl.com)
0–1 TOR1st 02:24+15.964%
Jack Quinn(1)
Z. Benson (1), Z. Metsa (1)
xG 0.14wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–1 Tied1st 03:35+16.152%
Kirill Marchenko(1)PP
J. Tavares (1), D. Raddysh (1)
xG 0.12between-legsClip(opens nhl.com)
1–2 TOR1st 13:10+17.666%
2nd
Jack Quinn(2)
N. Ostlund (1), M. Samuelsson (1)
xG 0.11wristClip(opens nhl.com)
2–2 Tied2nd 02:41+19.652%
Kirill Marchenko(2)
J. Tavares (2)
xG 0.08wristClip(opens nhl.com)
2–3 TOR2nd 11:13+22.071%
Kirill Marchenko(3)
C. Sissons (1), E. Cowan (1)
xG 0.20wristClip(opens nhl.com)
2–4 TOR2nd 16:51+16.089%
3rd
Dennis Gilbert(1)
J. Quinn (1), Z. Benson (2)
xG 0.03snapClip(opens nhl.com)
3–4 TOR3rd 10:05+13.617%
Mattias Samuelsson(1)
T. Thompson (1)
xG 0.10wristClip(opens nhl.com)
4–4 Tied3rd 12:16+36.151%
OT
Owen Power(1)
J. Quinn (2), N. Ostlund (2)
xG 0.17snapClip(opens nhl.com)
5–4 BUFOT 03:14+49.2100%

Shots

Shooters

BUF3.05 xG49 unblocked · 11 blocked49 unblocked · 11 blocked

TOR3.05 xG42 unblocked · 5 blocked42 unblocked · 5 blocked

Goal, taller = higher xGSavedMissedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

BUFTOR5Goals43.05xG3.0535Shots3049Unblocked4260Attempts474High danger60/2Power play1/325Faceoffs3221Hits255Blocks115Takeaways417Giveaways2013PIM11

Skaters

Player

Player
23M. SamuelssonMattias SamuelssonD	28:24	1	1	2	3	6	0.25	+0.75	0	0	0	0	—	0	+1
25O. PowerOwen PowerD	28:01	1	0	1	2	6	0.30	+0.70	0	0	0	2	—	0	+1
8O. ZellwegerOlen ZellwegerD	24:28	0	0	0	6	8	0.27	−0.27	0	1	2	2	—	0	0
86N. OstlundNoah OstlundC	21:39	0	2	2	1	2	0.06	−0.06	0	0	0	2	33%	0	+4
6Z. BensonZach BensonL	21:18	0	2	2	4	5	0.35	−0.35	1	0	1	1	—	2	+3
72T. ThompsonTage ThompsonC	21:11	0	1	1	6	8	0.68	−0.68	3	0	0	1	44%	0	0
71R. McLeodRyan McLeodC	18:38	0	0	0	2	2	0.11	−0.11	2	0	1	1	38%	0	0
22J. QuinnJack QuinnR	18:04	2	2	4	4	7	0.62	+1.38	0	0	0	1	—	5	+4
91J. DoanJosh DoanR	17:22	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1	0	0	1	—	0	-1
46L. CrevierLouis CrevierD	16:26	0	0	0	1	2	0.06	−0.06	1	0	0	2	—	0	+1
19P. KrebsPeyton KrebsC	16:22	0	0	0	1	3	0.01	−0.01	3	0	0	0	75%	0	-2
94K. HeleniusKonsta HeleniusC	15:11	0	0	0	4	6	0.31	−0.31	2	0	0	1	—	0	-2
9J. NorrisJosh NorrisC	14:50	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1	1	0	0	63%	0	-2
73Z. MetsaZach MetsaD	12:36	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	1	0	1	—	0	-1
44D. GilbertDennis GilbertD	10:37	1	0	1	1	4	0.04	+0.96	0	1	0	1	—	2	+2
29B. MalenstynBeck MalenstynL	8:03	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	2	0	0	0	—	0	0
15J. DanforthJustin DanforthR	6:08	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	1	43%	0	0
10S. CarrickSam CarrickC	5:46	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	5	0	1	0	0%	4	0
BUF total		5	9	14	35	60	3.05	+1.95	21	4	5	17	44%	13

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Quinn+2.28

Ostlund+0.30

Thompson+0.25

Benson+0.17

Helenius+0.04

Danforth−0.19

Malenstyn−0.20

Norris−0.31

Carrick−0.36

McLeod−0.38

Krebs−0.49

Doan−0.50

Defence

Gilbert+0.39

Samuelsson+0.32

Power+0.31

Metsa0.00

Crevier−0.13

Zellweger−0.22

Goalie

Luukkonen−0.93

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Benson·Ostlund·Quinn	13:37	22	16	9	64.0%	7	7	3	0	0.63	0.51	55.3%	+0.12	4	0	100%
McLeod·Thompson·Doan	8:30	14	10	7	58.8%	9	5	1	0	0.50	0.37	57.2%	+0.13	3	1	75%
Norris·Krebs·Helenius	7:59	14	7	5	58.3%	5	3	0	1	0.14	0.30	32.2%	−0.16	2	3	40%
Krebs·Thompson·Doan	6:01	8	2	7	22.2%	1	6	0	1	0.03	0.61	4.0%	−0.59	1	1	50%
Malenstyn·Carrick·Danforth	4:36	9	2	5	28.6%	1	2	0	0	0.03	0.32	9.6%	−0.29	0	2	0%
Norris·McLeod·Helenius	2:56	5	6	2	75.0%	2	0	0	0	0.24	0.01	96.4%	+0.24	0	1	0%
Occasional · 4 groups
Benson·Thompson·Ostlund	1:30	4	2	0	100.0%	2	0	0	0	0.14	0.00	100.0%	+0.14	0	0	—
Benson·Norris·Quinn	0:53	2	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Krebs·Ostlund·Helenius	0:52	4	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Malenstyn·Carrick·McLeod	0:30	2	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.01	0.0%	−0.01	0	0	—
Other 40 brief groups	5:32		3	2	60.0%	1	1	0	1	0.14	0.21	39.9%	−0.07
BUF 5v5	52:56		48	39	55.2%	28	25	4	3	1.86	2.34	44.2%	−0.49

Goalies

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

BUF · 63:14

Saves: 26/30
SV%: .867
GAA: 3.80
xGA: 3.05
GSAx: −0.95

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	24/27	.889	2.74	−0.26
Power play	2/3	.667	0.31	−0.69
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	3/5	.600	1.13	−0.87

Sergei Bobrovsky

TOR · 63:14

Saves: 30/35
SV%: .857
GAA: 4.74
xGA: 3.05
GSAx: −1.95

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	26/31	.839	2.51	−2.49
Power play	4/4	1.000	0.44	+0.44
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.10	+0.10
High danger	2/3	.667	0.83	−0.17

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Buffalo Sabres

Minutes

28:24Samuelsson
28:01Power
24:28Zellweger
16:26Crevier
12:36Metsa
10:37Gilbert

21:39Ostlund
21:18Benson
21:11Thompson
18:38McLeod
18:04Quinn
17:22Doan
16:22Krebs
15:11Helenius
14:50Norris
8:03Malenstyn
6:08Danforth
5:46Carrick

Matchups

Full game

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareBUFTORGoalHard matchEdge bars = skater 5v5 total

Faceoffs

Both teams · pick a taker to focus

25–3244%

D 50%8–8N 40%10–15O 44%7–9 6 won into a shot

TOR attacks88BUF DZ 50% TOR OZ

Neutral1015BUF NZ 40% TOR NZ

BUF attacks79BUF OZ 44% TOR DZ

32–2556%

D 56%9–7N 60%15–10O 50%8–8 6 won into a shot

Bead = draw, winner’s colourClockwise from the top in game order Shot attempt within 10sHover a zone for its draws · click a taker to focus

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

GilbertD0 O1
PowerD3 O3
MetsaD1 O1
SamuelssonD4 O3
ZellwegerD4 O3
CrevierD2 O0
OstlundD0 O6
QuinnD0 O5
BensonD1 O6
ThompsonD2 O5
DoanD3 O5
KrebsD4 O3
CarrickD2 O0
McLeodD4 O2
MalenstynD3 O0
DanforthD3 O0
NorrisD5 O2
HeleniusD6 O2

Shift starts · darker = later period