UTA @ BUF 1–1 · 2026-10-10

UtahUTAMammoth1

End P1 12:30Oct 102026-10-10

Team	1	2	3	SOG
UTA	1	0	0	12
BUF	1	0	0	7

KeyBank Center

BuffaloBUFSabres1

CallBUF52%mkt 50%-108

Closing linesDraftKings

-112Moneyline-108-1.5 +220Puck line+1.5 -270O +102Total 6.5U -122+145RegulationTie +320 +130-1151st period-115+1781st · 3-wayTie +180 +178

Season oddsafter: next morning's run

82%…Playoffs72%…2.4%…Cup3.5%…

Story

– / 4

LiveCall BUF 52%Market UTA 51%xG 1.46–0.45 · deserved UTA 77%Swing Yamamoto +17 1st 10:12Method

Goals and penalties with BUF win probability
Time	Event	BUF win before	BUF win after
1st 1:32	BUF penalty · T. Thompson · slashing · 2 min
1st 7:36	UTA penalty · L. Cooley · hooking · 2 min
1st 8:00	Goal BUF · T. Thompson (PP)	52%	69%
1st 10:12	Goal UTA · K. Yamamoto	69%	52%

On ice · now

Line-up as of 1st 17:02 · live shifts trail the play

UTA4 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
16V. TrocheckC	0:36	5:14	7	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	2-2
92L. CooleyC	0:32	5:01	7	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1-0
11D. GuentherR	0:36	5:06	7	0	0	0	2	4	0	1	0	–
26D. SimashevD	1:49	6:03	7	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	–
70K. VejmelkaG		17:02	SA7GA1SV%.857xGA0.45GSAx−0.55

BUF5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
19P. KrebsC	1:05	3:58	6	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	–
71R. McLeodC	1:05	3:30	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2-1
86N. OstlundC	0:03	4:03	5	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	1-1
23M. SamuelssonD	1:05	7:43	8	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	–
26R. DahlinD	0:59	6:49	6	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	1	–
92C. EllisG		17:02	SA12GA1SV%.917xGA1.46GSAx+0.46

Goals

1st
Tage Thompson(1)PP
R. Dahlin (1)
xG 0.07wristClip(opens nhl.com)
0–1 BUF1st 08:00+16.569%
Kailer Yamamoto(1)
B. Hayton (1), M. Sergachev (1)
xG 0.38wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–1 Tied1st 10:12+16.848%

Shots

UTA1.46 xG20 unblocked · 6 blocked20 unblocked · 6 blocked

BUF0.45 xG13 unblocked · 3 blocked13 unblocked · 3 blocked

Goal, taller = higher xGSavedMissedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

UTABUF1Goals11.46xG0.4512Shots720Unblocked1326Attempts162High danger10/1Power play1/17Faceoffs712Hits73Blocks60Takeaways05Giveaways52PIM2

Skaters

Player

Player
26D. SimashevDmitri SimashevD	6:03	0	0	0	1	2	0.00	−0.00	1	0	0	—	0	0
98M. SergachevMikhail SergachevD	5:51	0	1	1	1	3	0.03	−0.03	0	0	2	—	0	+1
8N. SchmaltzNick SchmaltzC	5:37	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0%	0	0
9C. KellerClayton KellerR	5:35	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	1	—	0	0
52M. WeegarMacKenzie WeegarD	5:24	0	0	0	1	4	0.03	−0.03	1	2	0	—	0	0
88N. SchmidtNate SchmidtD	5:21	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	—	0	+1
16V. TrocheckVincent TrocheckC	5:14	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	−0.02	3	0	1	50%	0	0
11D. GuentherDylan GuentherR	5:06	0	0	0	2	4	0.17	−0.17	1	0	0	—	0	0
92L. CooleyLogan CooleyC	5:01	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	100%	2	0
6J. MarinoJohn MarinoD	4:44	0	0	0	1	1	0.03	−0.03	0	0	0	—	0	0
67L. CrouseLawson CrouseL	4:33	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	2	0	0	—	0	0
20A. PeekeAndrew PeekeD	4:15	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	1	0	—	0	0
82K. StenlundKevin StenlundC	4:09	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1	0	0	100%	0	0
56K. YamamotoKailer YamamotoR	3:38	1	0	1	1	1	0.38	+0.62	0	0	0	—	0	+1
50D. ButDaniil ButL	3:35	0	0	0	2	2	0.16	−0.16	1	0	0	—	0	0
72A. LeeAnders LeeL	3:32	0	0	0	2	5	0.59	−0.59	0	0	1	—	0	+1
22J. McBainJack McBainC	3:19	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	−0.04	2	0	0	—	0	0
27B. HaytonBarrett HaytonC	3:12	0	1	1	1	1	0.01	−0.01	0	0	0	50%	0	+1
UTA total		1	2	3	12	26	1.46	−0.46	12	3	5	50%	2

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Yamamoto+0.85

Hayton+0.69

Lee+0.18

Keller+0.06

But−0.03

McBain−0.04

Stenlund−0.06

Trocheck−0.07

Guenther−0.11

Crouse−0.11

Schmaltz−0.15

Cooley−0.30

Defence

Weegar+0.16

Sergachev+0.13

Schmidt+0.12

Marino+0.10

Peeke+0.05

Simashev−0.08

Goalie

Vejmelka−0.55

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Crouse·Schmaltz·Keller	3:54	5	1	1	50.0%	1	1	0	0.00	0.03	8.6%	−0.03	0	0	—
But·McBain·Stenlund	3:10	4	4	5	44.4%	1	2	0	0.19	0.08	71.4%	+0.11	0	0	—
Trocheck·Cooley·Guenther	2:51	5	5	5	50.0%	2	2	0	0.09	0.22	30.6%	−0.12	0	0	—
Lee·Hayton·Yamamoto	1:57	4	7	0	100.0%	4	0	1	0.68	0.00	100.0%	+0.68	2	0	100%
Other 17 brief groups	2:09		3	1	75.0%	1	0	0	0.05	0.01	87.0%	+0.04
UTA 5v5	14:01		20	12	62.5%	9	5	1	1.02	0.33	75.6%	+0.69

Goalies

Karel Vejmelka

UTA · 20:00

Saves: 6/7
SV%: .857
xGA: 0.45
GSAx: −0.55

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	6/6	1.000	0.38	+0.38
Power play	0/1	.000	0.07	−0.93
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	1/1	1.000	0.19	+0.19

Colten Ellis

BUF · 19:57

Saves: 11/12
SV%: .917
xGA: 1.46
GSAx: +0.46

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	9/10	.900	1.04	+0.04
Power play	2/2	1.000	0.43	+0.43
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	1/2	.500	0.54	−0.46

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Utah Mammoth

Minutes

6:03Simashev
5:51Sergachev
5:24Weegar
5:21Schmidt
4:44Marino
4:15Peeke

5:37Schmaltz
5:35Keller
5:14Trocheck
5:06Guenther
5:01Cooley
4:33Crouse
4:09Stenlund
3:38Yamamoto
3:35But
3:32Lee
3:19McBain
3:12Hayton

Matchups

Now

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareUTABUFGoalHard matchEdge bars = skater 5v5 total

Faceoffs

Both teams · pick a taker to focus

7–750%

D 50%2–2N 33%1–2O 57%4–3 2 won into a shot

BUF attacks22UTA DZ 50% BUF OZ

Neutral12UTA NZ 33% BUF NZ

UTA attacks43UTA OZ 57% BUF DZ

7–750%

D 43%3–4N 67%2–1O 50%2–2 0 won into a shot

Bead = draw, winner’s colourClockwise from the top in game order Shot attempt within 10sHover a zone for its draws · click a taker to focus

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

MarinoD0 O1
SergachevD0 O1
SchmidtD0 O0
WeegarD0 O0
PeekeD0 O0
SimashevD0 O0
HaytonD0 O2
LeeD0 O1
YamamotoD0 O1
GuentherD0 O1
CooleyD0 O1
TrocheckD0 O0
SchmaltzD0 O0
KellerD0 O0
McBainD0 O0
ButD0 O0
CrouseD1 O0
StenlundD1 O0

Shift starts · darker = later period