TBL @ NYI 1–0 · 2026-10-10

Tampa BayTBLLightning1

Live · P1 14:10Oct 102026-10-10

Team	1	2	3	SOG
TBL	1	0	0	4
NYI	0	0	0	1

UBS Arena

New YorkNYIIslanders0

CallTBL63%mkt 62%-180

Closing linesDraftKings

-180Moneyline+150-1.5 +150Puck line+1.5 -180O -112Total 5.5U -108+100RegulationTie +310 +200-1601st period+120+1521st · 3-wayTie +165 +230

Season oddsafter: next morning's run

97%…Playoffs17%…16%…Cup0.1%…

Story

– / 1

LiveCall TBL 63%Market TBL 62%xG 0.25–0.14 · deserved TBL 55%Swing Guentzel +15 1st 5:43Method

Goals and penalties with NYI win probability
Time	Event	NYI win before	NYI win after
1st 5:43	Goal TBL · J. Guentzel	38%	23%

On ice · now

Line-up as of 1st 5:30 · live shifts trail the play

TBL5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
28Z. GirgensonsC	1:11	1:58	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0-1
29P. HolmbergR	1:13	1:55	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	–
95I. MikheyevR	1:12	2:03	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	–
24M. CrozierD	0:53	1:47	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	–
51C. D'AstousD	0:53	1:47	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	–
88A. VasilevskiyG		5:30	SA1GA0SV%1.000xGA0.14GSAx+0.14

NYI3 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
14B. HorvatC	1:15	2:00	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	–
8L. StanleyD	0:41	2:41	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	–
48M. SchaeferD	0:42	2:55	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	–
30I. SorokinG		5:30	SA4GA1SV%.750xGA0.25GSAx−0.75

Goals

1st
Jake Guentzel(1)
Unassisted
xG 0.12wrist
1–0 TBL1st 05:43+15.177%

Shots

TBL0.25 xG4 unblocked · 2 blocked4 unblocked · 2 blocked

NYI0.14 xG3 unblocked · 2 blocked3 unblocked · 2 blocked

Goal, taller = higher xGSavedMissedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

TBLNYI1Goals00.25xG0.144Shots14Unblocked36Attempts50High danger00/0Power play0/01Faceoffs21Hits22Blocks20Takeaways01Giveaways10PIM0

Skaters

Player

Player
95I. MikheyevIlya MikheyevR	2:03	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	1	—	0
28Z. GirgensonsZemgus GirgensonsC	1:58	0	0	1	1	0.04	−0.04	0	0	0	0%	0
93G. GoncalvesGage GoncalvesC	1:58	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	1	0	—	0
29P. HolmbergPontus HolmbergR	1:55	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	—	0
81E. CernakErik CernakD	1:54	0	0	1	2	0.08	−0.08	0	0	0	—	+1
74J. CarlsonJohn CarlsonD	1:50	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	—	0
51C. D'AstousCharle-Edouard D'AstousD	1:47	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	—	0
24M. CrozierMax CrozierD	1:47	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	1	0	—	0
90J. MoserJ.J. MoserD	1:42	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	—	0
49S. SabourinScott SabourinR	1:34	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	—	0
21B. PointBrayden PointC	1:28	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0%	0
59J. GuentzelJake GuentzelC	1:27	1	1	2	3	0.14	+0.86	0	0	0	—	+1
94C. GeekieConor GeekieC	1:20	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1	0	0	—	0
27R. McDonaghRyan McDonaghD	1:19	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	—	0
86N. KucherovNikita KucherovR	1:13	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	—	0
38B. HagelBrandon HagelL	0:51	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	—	+1
77V. HedmanVictor HedmanD	0:42	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	—	+1
71A. CirelliAnthony CirelliC	0:42	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	100%	+1
TBL total		1	1	4	6	0.25	+0.75	1	2	1	33%

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Guentzel+0.72

Cirelli−0.01

Hagel−0.02

Kucherov−0.03

Geekie−0.03

Sabourin−0.04

Goncalves−0.04

Holmberg−0.04

Point−0.05

Girgensons−0.05

Mikheyev−0.05

Defence

Crozier+0.06

Cernak+0.02

McDonagh0.00

Hedman−0.01

D'Astous−0.02

Moser−0.04

Carlson−0.04

Goalie

Vasilevskiy+0.14

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Girgensons·Holmberg·Mikheyev	1:12	3	1	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.04	0.00	100.0%	+0.04	0	0	—
Point·Goncalves·Kucherov	1:12	1	0	2	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.01	0.0%	−0.01	0	0	—
Hagel·Guentzel·Cirelli	0:36	1	1	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.02	0.00	100.0%	+0.02	0	0	—
Occasional · 2 groups
Guentzel·Geekie·Sabourin	0:36	1	3	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.08	0.00	100.0%	+0.08	0	0	—
Goncalves·Geekie·Sabourin	0:35	1	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.09	0.0%	−0.09	0	0	—
Other 13 brief groups	0:41		0	0		0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00		0.00
TBL 5v5	4:52		5	3	62.5%	3	1	0	0	0.13	0.11	55.4%	+0.03

Goalies

Andrei Vasilevskiy

TBL · 5:43

Saves: 1/1
SV%: 1.000
xGA: 0.14
GSAx: +0.14

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	1/1	1.000	0.14	+0.14
Power play	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	0/0	—	0.00	0.00

Ilya Sorokin

NYI · 5:43

Saves: 3/4
SV%: .750
xGA: 0.25
GSAx: −0.75

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	3/4	.750	0.25	−0.75
Power play	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	0/0	—	0.00	0.00

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Tampa Bay Lightning

Minutes

1:54Cernak
1:50Carlson
1:47D'Astous
1:47Crozier
1:42Moser
1:19McDonagh
0:42Hedman

2:03Mikheyev
1:58Girgensons
1:58Goncalves
1:55Holmberg
1:34Sabourin
1:28Point
1:27Guentzel
1:20Geekie
1:13Kucherov
0:51Hagel
0:42Cirelli

Matchups

Now

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareTBLNYIGoalHard matchEdge bars = skater 5v5 total

Faceoffs

Both teams · pick a taker to focus

1–233%

D 50%1–1N 0%0–1O —— 0 won into a shot

NYI attacks11TBL DZ 50% NYI OZ

Neutral01TBL NZ 0% NYI NZ

TBL attacks00TBL OZ — NYI DZ

2–167%

D ——N 100%1–0O 50%1–1 0 won into a shot

Bead = draw, winner’s colourClockwise from the top in game order Shot attempt within 10sHover a zone for its draws · click a taker to focus

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

McDonaghD0 O0
CarlsonD0 O0
HedmanD0 O0
CernakD0 O0
D'AstousD0 O0
CrozierD0 O0
MoserD0 O0
KucherovD0 O0
GirgensonsD0 O0
SabourinD0 O0
GuentzelD0 O0
PointD0 O0
CirelliD0 O0
HagelD0 O0
HolmbergD0 O0
MikheyevD0 O0
GoncalvesD0 O0
GeekieD0 O0

Shift starts · darker = later period