TOR @ COL 1–2 · 2026-10-10

TorontoTORMaple Leafs1

Live · P1 0:00Oct 102026-10-10

Team	1	2	3	SOG
TOR	1	0	0	6
COL	2	0	0	12

Ball Arena

ColoradoCOLAvalanche2

CallCOL72%mkt 67%-218

Closing linesDraftKings

+180Moneyline-218+1.5 -130Puck line-1.5 +110O -125Total 6.5U +105+245RegulationTie +340 -130+1351st period-180+2351st · 3-wayTie +193 +130

Season oddsafter: next morning's run

11%…Playoffs99%…0.0%…Cup19%…

Story

– / 6

LiveCall COL 72%Market COL 67%xG 0.72–1.02 · deserved COL 58%Swing MacKinnon +17 1st 10:46Method

Goals and penalties with COL win probability
Time	Event	COL win before	COL win after
1st 0:24	TOR penalty · K. Marchenko · tripping · 2 min
1st 3:03	COL penalty · B. Kulak · slashing · 2 min
1st 3:03	Goal TOR · N. Blankenburg	71%	56%
1st 10:46	Goal COL · N. MacKinnon	53%	70%
1st 15:14	Goal COL · N. MacKinnon	69%	83%
1st 18:59	TOR penalty · J. Roslovic · hooking · 2 min

On ice · now

Line-up as of 1st 18:59 · live shifts trail the play

TOR5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
34A. MatthewsC	0:48	5:34	8	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	4-1
96J. RoslovicC	0:53	5:48	8	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	0	–
92G. McKennaL	0:33	5:15	6	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	–
3N. BlankenburgD	0:49	4:11	6	1	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	–
44M. RiellyD	0:54	4:39	8	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	–
72S. BobrovskyG		18:59	SA12GA2SV%.833xGA1.02GSAx−0.98

COL3 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
11B. NelsonC	0:51	5:31	6	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0-2
92G. LandeskogL	0:49	5:31	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	–
70S. MalinskiD	0:04	5:27	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	–
39M. BlackwoodG		18:59	SA6GA1SV%.833xGA0.72GSAx−0.28

Goals

1st
Nick Blankenburg(1)
W. Nylander (1), N. Paul (1)
xG 0.08wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–0 TOR1st 03:03+15.544%
Nathan MacKinnon(1)
B. Kulak (1), D. Toews (1)
xG 0.10wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–1 Tied1st 10:46+16.970%
Nathan MacKinnon(2)
C. Makar (1), M. Necas (1)
xG 0.07wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–2 COL1st 15:14+14.283%

Shots

TOR0.72 xG10 unblocked · 6 blocked10 unblocked · 6 blocked

COL1.02 xG17 unblocked · 6 blocked17 unblocked · 6 blocked

Goal, taller = higher xGSavedMissedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

TORCOL1Goals20.72xG1.026Shots1210Unblocked1716Attempts231High danger11/1Power play0/211Faceoffs109Hits96Blocks60Takeaways25Giveaways44PIM2

Skaters

Player

Player
95O. Ekman-LarssonOliver Ekman-LarssonD	7:04	0	0	0	0	3	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	—	0	0
22J. McCabeJake McCabeD	7:00	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1	1	0	—	0	-1
28T. StecherTroy StecherD	6:12	0	0	0	1	1	0.03	−0.03	0	2	1	—	0	0
20N. PaulNick PaulL	5:48	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0.00	1	0	1	14%	0	-1
96J. RoslovicJack RoslovicC	5:48	0	0	0	2	3	0.41	−0.41	0	0	0	—	2	-1
88W. NylanderWilliam NylanderR	5:43	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	1	—	0	-1
34A. MatthewsAuston MatthewsC	5:34	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	−0.02	0	0	0	80%	0	-1
15C. SissonsColton SissonsC	5:32	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	2	0	0	100%	0	0
53E. CowanEaston CowanR	5:32	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	1	—	0	-1
43D. RaddyshDarren RaddyshD	5:25	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	0	1	0	—	0	-1
92G. McKennaGavin McKennaL	5:15	0	0	0	2	2	0.15	−0.15	0	0	0	—	0	0
86K. MarchenkoKirill MarchenkoR	5:01	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	—	2	-1
44M. RiellyMorgan RiellyD	4:39	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	−0.03	0	0	0	—	0	-1
3N. BlankenburgNick BlankenburgD	4:11	1	0	1	1	2	0.08	+0.92	2	0	0	—	0	0
73T. BluegerTeddy BluegerC	4:06	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	1	0%	0	0
29B. GroulxBo GroulxC	4:01	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	2	1	0	—	0	0
24B. DuhaimeBrandon DuhaimeL	3:41	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1	0	0	100%	0	0
8C. TanevChris TanevD	3:29	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	−0.00	0	0	0	—	0	-1
TOR total		1	2	3	6	16	0.72	+0.28	9	5	5	52%	4

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Nylander+0.43

Paul+0.11

Duhaime−0.05

Groulx−0.06

Matthews−0.07

Blueger−0.08

Sissons−0.11

McKenna−0.12

Cowan−0.13

Roslovic−0.24

Marchenko−0.25

Defence

Blankenburg+0.52

Stecher+0.16

Raddysh+0.02

Ekman-Larsson−0.01

Tanev−0.05

Rielly−0.05

McCabe−0.07

Goalie

Bobrovsky−0.97

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Matthews·Roslovic·Marchenko	4:35	7	7	6	53.8%	3	5	0	1	0.48	0.35	57.9%	+0.13	1	1	50%
McKenna·Sissons·Groulx	2:18	3	2	3	40.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.17	1.2%	−0.16	0	0	—
Paul·Cowan·Nylander	2:06	4	1	3	25.0%	1	2	1	1	0.08	0.16	32.1%	−0.09	1	1	50%
Duhaime·Blueger·Cowan	1:31	4	1	3	25.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.01	0.0%	−0.01	1	0	100%
McKenna·Sissons·Nylander	1:15	1	2	1	66.7%	1	1	0	0	0.13	0.12	51.7%	+0.01	0	1	0%
Duhaime·Blueger·Nylander	1:12	2	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	1	0	100%
Paul·Groulx·Nylander	0:56	1	0	4	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.07	0.0%	−0.07	0	0	—
Paul·McKenna·Cowan	0:49	1	2	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.02	0.00	100.0%	+0.02	0	0	—
Paul·Sissons·Cowan	0:36	1	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.04	0.0%	−0.04	0	0	—
Other 16 brief groups	1:05		0	0		0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	100.0%	+0.00
TOR 5v5	16:23		15	21	41.7%	6	11	1	2	0.72	0.92	43.9%	−0.20

Goalies

Sergei Bobrovsky

TOR · 19:32

Saves: 10/12
SV%: .833
xGA: 1.02
GSAx: −0.98

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	9/11	.818	0.92	−1.08
Power play	1/1	1.000	0.10	+0.10
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	1/1	1.000	0.16	+0.16

Mackenzie Blackwood

COL · 19:32

Saves: 5/6
SV%: .833
xGA: 0.72
GSAx: −0.28

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	5/6	.833	0.72	−0.28
Power play	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	1/1	1.000	0.33	+0.33

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Toronto Maple Leafs

Minutes

7:04Ekman-Larsson
7:00McCabe
6:12Stecher
5:25Raddysh
4:39Rielly
4:11Blankenburg
3:29Tanev

5:48Paul
5:48Roslovic
5:43Nylander
5:34Matthews
5:32Sissons
5:32Cowan
5:15McKenna
5:01Marchenko
4:06Blueger
4:01Groulx
3:41Duhaime

Matchups

Now

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareTORCOLGoalHard matchEdge bars = skater 5v5 total

Faceoffs

Both teams · pick a taker to focus

11–1052%

D 50%5–5N 67%4–2O 40%2–3 0 won into a shot

COL attacks55TOR DZ 50% COL OZ

Neutral42TOR NZ 67% COL NZ

TOR attacks23TOR OZ 40% COL DZ

10–1148%

D 60%3–2N 33%2–4O 50%5–5 3 won into a shot

Bead = draw, winner’s colourClockwise from the top in game order Shot attempt within 10sHover a zone for its draws · click a taker to focus

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

Ekman-LarssonD1 O2
McCabeD0 O1
StecherD0 O1
BlankenburgD0 O1
RiellyD1 O1
RaddyshD1 O1
TanevD1 O0
BluegerD0 O2
DuhaimeD1 O2
CowanD1 O2
NylanderD2 O2
RoslovicD1 O1
MatthewsD1 O1
GroulxD0 O0
MarchenkoD1 O1
PaulD2 O1
McKennaD1 O0
SissonsD3 O0

Shift starts · darker = later period