NSH @ TOR 4–5 · 2026-10-06

NashvilleNSHPredators4

Final/OTOct 62026-10-06

Team	1	2	3	OT	SOG
NSH	2	2	0	0	25
TOR	0	3	1	1	37

Scotiabank Arena

TorontoTORMaple Leafs5

CallNo lean · 56% TOR

Star 1G. McKenna1G 1A
Star 2A. Matthews1G 3A
Star 3W. Nylander1G 2A

Closing linesDraftKings

+136Moneyline-162+1.5 -192Puck line-1.5 +160O -135Total 5.5U +114+185RegulationTie +320 +105+1151st period-150+2151st · 3-wayTie +175 +153

Season odds

25%25%+0.3Playoffs11%12%+1.70.2%0.2%±0.0Cup0.1%0.1%±0.0

Story

– / 13

Result TOR 5–4 OTCall No lean · TOR 56%Market TOR 60%xG 4.24–4.32 · deserved TOR 51%Swing Matthews +48 OT 4:46Method

Goals and penalties with TOR win probability
Time	Event	TOR win before	TOR win after
1st 5:31	TOR penalty · M. Rielly · tripping · 2 min
1st 7:13	Goal NSH · S. Stamkos (PP)	56%	39%
1st 9:08	Goal NSH · N. Hoglander	38%	23%
1st 19:47	NSH penalty · J. Marchessault · tripping · 2 min
2nd 3:03	Goal NSH · N. Hoglander	18%	8%
2nd 4:56	Goal TOR · J. Tavares	8%	18%
2nd 5:31	NSH penalty · J. Drury · hooking · 2 min
2nd 6:58	Goal TOR · W. Nylander (PP)	17%	33%
2nd 13:30	Goal NSH · S. Stamkos	31%	14%
2nd 14:31	Goal TOR · G. McKenna	13%	30%
2nd 15:06	NSH penalty · R. Colton · cross checking · 2 min
3rd 8:54	Goal TOR · J. Roslovic	20%	53%
OT 4:46	Goal TOR · A. Matthews	52%	100%

On ice · final horn

NSH3 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
14A. KerfootC	0:20	18:50	28	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0-1
90R. O'ReillyC	0:23	23:40	33	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	2	8-8
59R. JosiD	1:28	26:33	29	0	1	1	1	2	0	1	2	–
74J. SarosG		64:35	SA36GA4SV%.889xGA4.26GSAx+0.26

TOR3 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
34A. MatthewsC	1:54	25:09	23	0	3	3	3	8	0	1	1	6-7
88W. NylanderR	1:18	22:48	23	1	1	2	1	7	0	0	0	1-2
43D. RaddyshD	1:18	25:51	27	0	0	0	2	8	0	0	2	–
41A. StolarzG		64:46	SA25GA4SV%.840xGA4.24GSAx+0.24

Goals

1st
Steven Stamkos(1)PP
M. Wood (1), R. Josi (1)
xG 0.53wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–0 NSH1st 07:13+17.261%
Nils Hoglander(1)
A. Wilsby (1), F. Forsberg (1)
xG 0.68backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
2–0 NSH1st 09:08+15.277%
2nd
Nils Hoglander(2)
F. Forsberg (2), M. Bourque (1)
xG 0.33backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
3–0 NSH2nd 03:03+10.292%
John Tavares(1)
G. McKenna (1), A. Stolarz (1)
xG 0.04wristClip(opens nhl.com)
3–1 NSH2nd 04:56+10.018%
William Nylander(1)PP
A. Matthews (1), K. Marchenko (1)
xG 0.21wristClip(opens nhl.com)
3–2 NSH2nd 06:58+16.733%
Steven Stamkos(2)
R. O'Reilly (1), B. Skjei (1)
xG 0.05wristClip(opens nhl.com)
4–2 NSH2nd 13:30+17.086%
Gavin McKenna(1)
A. Matthews (2), J. Roslovic (1)
xG 0.10wristClip(opens nhl.com)
4–3 NSH2nd 14:31+17.030%
3rd
Jack Roslovic(1)
A. Matthews (3), W. Nylander (1)
xG 0.15wristClip(opens nhl.com)
4–4 Tied3rd 08:54+33.653%
OT
Auston Matthews(1)
W. Nylander (2)
xG 0.06wristClip(opens nhl.com)
4–5 TOROT 04:46+47.5100%

Shots

NSH4.24 xG40 unblocked · 12 blocked40 unblocked · 12 blocked

TOR4.32 xG55 unblocked · 17 blocked55 unblocked · 17 blocked

GoalSavedMissedBlockedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

NSHTOR4Goals54.24xG4.3225Shots3740Unblocked5552Attempts726High danger71/1Power play1/319Faceoffs3422Hits2017Blocks125Takeaways520Giveaways146PIM2

Skaters

Player

Player
59R. JosiRoman JosiD	26:33	0	1	1	1	2	0.06	−0.06	1	2	0	1	—	0	-1
90R. O'ReillyRyan O'ReillyC	23:40	0	1	1	1	2	0.16	−0.16	0	1	0	0	50%	0	-2
76B. SkjeiBrady SkjeiD	22:53	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	2	—	0	0
9F. ForsbergFilip ForsbergL	21:00	0	2	2	2	3	0.55	−0.55	1	1	2	0	—	0	+1
48N. PerbixNick PerbixD	20:49	0	0	0	1	3	0.10	−0.10	0	3	1	2	—	0	-1
91S. StamkosSteven StamkosC	19:43	2	0	2	3	11	0.97	+1.03	0	1	0	1	75%	0	0
22M. BourqueMavrik BourqueC	19:15	0	1	1	1	2	0.08	−0.08	1	0	0	0	20%	0	+1
41N. HagueNicolas HagueD	19:12	0	0	0	1	4	0.03	−0.03	1	4	0	2	—	0	0
14A. KerfootAlexander KerfootC	18:50	0	0	0	1	1	0.09	−0.09	1	0	0	0	0%	0	-2
71M. WoodMatthew WoodR	16:54	0	1	1	1	6	0.32	−0.32	1	0	0	0	31%	0	0
18J. DruryJack DruryC	15:34	0	0	0	1	2	0.08	−0.08	1	2	1	0	25%	2	0
2A. WilsbyAdam WilsbyD	15:05	0	1	1	2	3	0.19	−0.19	2	0	0	0	—	0	0
84A. EdstromAdam EdstromC	14:11	0	0	0	3	3	0.26	−0.26	7	1	0	0	—	0	0
81J. MarchessaultJonathan MarchessaultR	13:17	0	0	0	2	2	0.08	−0.08	0	0	0	3	0%	2	0
79R. ColtonRoss ColtonC	12:52	0	0	0	2	3	0.08	−0.08	2	0	0	1	—	2	-1
21N. HoglanderNils HoglanderL	10:38	2	0	2	2	2	1.01	+0.99	2	0	1	3	—	0	+1
85W. TrudeauWilliam TrudeauD	10:38	0	0	0	1	2	0.18	−0.18	1	1	0	4	—	0	0
47J. AhcanJack AhcanD	7:58	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	1	1	0	0	—	0	+1
NSH total		4	8	12	25	52	4.24	−0.24	22	17	5	19	36%	6

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Hoglander+1.47

Stamkos+1.30

Forsberg+0.72

Wood+0.29

O'Reilly+0.23

Bourque−0.11

Edstrom−0.27

Drury−0.30

Kerfoot−0.36

Colton−0.48

Marchessault−0.54

Defence

Wilsby+0.25

Hague+0.10

Trudeau+0.10

Josi+0.09

Ahcan+0.07

Perbix0.00

Skjei−0.09

Goalie

Saros−0.65

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Forsberg·Hoglander·Wood	8:27	13	5	8	38.5%	2	4	1	1	1.05	0.68	60.7%	+0.37	2	1	67%
Bourque·Colton·Marchessault	6:03	11	4	12	25.0%	2	6	0	0	0.25	0.37	40.0%	−0.12	2	1	67%
Kerfoot·O'Reilly·Stamkos	5:57	11	4	3	57.1%	1	2	0	0	0.16	0.04	79.3%	+0.12	1	2	33%
Kerfoot·Drury·Edstrom	5:48	11	4	5	44.4%	2	4	0	0	0.30	0.12	70.3%	+0.17	0	1	0%
Bourque·O'Reilly·Stamkos	4:15	6	4	5	44.4%	2	0	0	0	0.09	0.21	29.5%	−0.12	0	3	0%
Drury·Colton·Edstrom	3:47	8	2	5	28.6%	2	2	0	0	0.12	0.13	47.9%	−0.01	0	0	—
Forsberg·O'Reilly·Stamkos	2:27	4	1	5	16.7%	0	1	0	0	0.01	0.08	14.2%	−0.06	0	1	0%
Forsberg·Bourque·Marchessault	2:14	5	1	3	25.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.19	0.0%	−0.19	0	0	—
O'Reilly·Stamkos·Marchessault	1:37	2	2	1	66.7%	2	1	1	1	0.15	0.10	60.4%	+0.05	0	0	—
Forsberg·Drury·Edstrom	1:31	2	1	1	50.0%	1	1	0	0	0.01	0.04	13.0%	−0.03	0	0	—
Kerfoot·Bourque·Marchessault	1:13	3	2	1	66.7%	2	1	0	0	0.13	0.01	90.1%	+0.11	0	0	—
Hoglander·Colton·Wood	0:53	1	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Forsberg·Bourque·Colton	0:39	2	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Kerfoot·Bourque·Stamkos	0:35	1	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.18	0.0%	−0.18	0	0	—
Drury·Edstrom·Marchessault	0:31	1	0	2	0.0%	0	2	0	0	0.00	0.13	0.0%	−0.13	0	0	—
NSH 5v5	52:40		38	56	40.4%	21	27	3	3	3.06	2.35	56.6%	+0.72

Goalies

Juuse Saros

NSH · 64:35

Saves: 32/37
SV%: .865
xGA: 4.32
GSAx: −0.68

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	27/31	.871	3.24	−0.76
Power play	5/6	.833	1.08	+0.08
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	5/6	.833	1.60	+0.60

Anthony Stolarz

TOR · 64:46

Saves: 21/25
SV%: .840
xGA: 4.24
GSAx: +0.24

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	20/23	.870	3.30	+0.30
Power play	1/2	.500	0.94	−0.06
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	1/4	.250	2.25	−0.75

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Nashville Predators

Minutes

26:33Josi
22:53Skjei
20:49Perbix
19:12Hague
15:05Wilsby
10:38Trudeau
7:58Ahcan

23:40O'Reilly
21:00Forsberg
19:43Stamkos
19:15Bourque
18:50Kerfoot
16:54Wood
15:34Drury
14:11Edstrom
13:17Marchessault
12:52Colton
10:38Hoglander

Matchups

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareNSHTOR

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

TrudeauD1 O2
AhcanD0 O0
WilsbyD1 O1
JosiD3 O2
HagueD3 O0
SkjeiD5 O0
PerbixD5 O0
MarchessaultD1 O1
ColtonD1 O1
HoglanderD1 O1
WoodD3 O3
ForsbergD1 O0
EdstromD1 O0
DruryD2 O0
StamkosD5 O2
KerfootD4 O1
BourqueD4 O1
O'ReillyD7 O2

Shift starts · darker = later period