MIN @ BUF 2–3 · 2026-10-06

MinnesotaMINWild2

Final/OTOct 62026-10-06

Team	1	2	3	OT	SOG
MIN	0	2	0	0	20
BUF	0	0	2	1	28

KeyBank Center

BuffaloBUFSabres3

CallBUF51%mkt 50%-108Hit

Star 1O. Power1G 1A
Star 2T. Thompson1G 1A
Star 3N. Ostlund1G 0A

Closing linesDraftKings

-112Moneyline-108-1.5 +220Puck line+1.5 -270O +102Total 6.5U -122+140RegulationTie +310 +140-1151st period-115+1761st · 3-wayTie +180 +180

Season odds

92%89%−3.0Playoffs69%77%+8.15.8%4.1%−1.7Cup3.8%4.2%+0.4

Story

– / 11

Result BUF 3–2 OTCall BUF 51% Market MIN 51%xG 1.88–3.89 · deserved BUF 81%Swing Power +50 OT 4:22Method

Goals and penalties with BUF win probability
Time	Event	BUF win before	BUF win after
1st 4:03	MIN penalty · J. Brodin · hooking · 2 min
1st 10:30	BUF penalty · Z. Benson · cross checking · 2 min
1st 17:59	BUF penalty · R. Dahlin · high sticking · 2 min
2nd 7:28	BUF penalty · R. McLeod · slashing · 2 min
2nd 13:17	BUF penalty · P. Krebs · interference · 2 min
2nd 13:53	Goal MIN · D. Yurov (PP)	50%	27%
2nd 15:38	Goal MIN · M. Shabanov	27%	11%
3rd 3:55	Goal BUF · N. Ostlund	7%	22%
3rd 9:38	Goal BUF · T. Thompson	17%	50%
3rd 16:09	MIN penalty · O. Maatta · high sticking · 2 min
OT 4:22	Goal BUF · O. Power	50%	100%

On ice · final horn

MIN3 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
12M. BoldyL	1:00	23:24	26	0	0	0	7	8	0	0	3	1-2
97K. KaprizovL	0:35	24:58	22	0	0	0	3	6	0	0	0	0-1
46J. SpurgeonD	0:32	21:49	30	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	–
30J. WallstedtG		64:22	SA27GA2SV%.926xGA3.80GSAx+1.80

BUF3 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
20J. KulichC	0:12	13:56	18	0	0	0	2	3	0	2	1	4-6
72T. ThompsonC	0:14	20:23	22	1	0	1	9	13	0	0	1	4-6
25O. PowerD	0:43	29:04	33	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	–
92C. EllisG		64:22	SA20GA2SV%.900xGA1.88GSAx−0.12

Goals

2nd
Danila Yurov(1)PP
J. Spurgeon (1), B. Coleman (1)
xG 0.08slapClip(opens nhl.com)
1–0 MIN2nd 13:53+23.073%
Maxim Shabanov(1)
Q. Hughes (1), M. McCarron (1)
xG 0.12snapClip(opens nhl.com)
2–0 MIN2nd 15:38+15.789%
3rd
Noah Ostlund(1)
O. Power (1), R. Dahlin (1)
xG 0.16deflectedClip(opens nhl.com)
2–1 MIN3rd 03:55+15.222%
Tage Thompson(1)
P. Krebs (1)
xG 0.24snapClip(opens nhl.com)
2–2 Tied3rd 09:38+32.950%
OT
Owen Power(1)
J. Kulich (1), T. Thompson (1)
xG 0.09wristClip(opens nhl.com)
2–3 BUFOT 04:22+49.8100%

Shots

MIN1.88 xG30 unblocked · 18 blocked30 unblocked · 18 blocked

BUF3.89 xG46 unblocked · 18 blocked46 unblocked · 18 blocked

GoalSavedMissedBlockedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

MINBUF2Goals31.88xG3.8920Shots2830Unblocked4648Attempts643High danger111/4Power play0/224Faceoffs3026Hits1218Blocks183Takeaways320Giveaways184PIM8

Skaters

Player

Player
43Q. HughesQuinn HughesD	29:30	0	1	1	1	9	0.20	−0.20	0	1	0	3	—	0	0
97K. KaprizovKirill KaprizovL	24:58	0	0	0	3	6	0.07	−0.07	0	0	0	0	0%	0	-1
12M. BoldyMatt BoldyL	23:24	0	0	0	7	8	0.57	−0.57	0	3	0	2	33%	0	-2
46J. SpurgeonJared SpurgeonD	21:49	0	1	1	0	2	0.04	−0.04	0	0	0	1	—	0	-2
14J. Eriksson EkJoel Eriksson EkC	20:26	0	0	0	0	1	0.06	−0.06	1	1	0	1	50%	0	-1
25J. BrodinJonas BrodinD	19:18	0	0	0	1	2	0.00	−0.00	0	3	0	0	—	2	-1
3O. MaattaOlli MaattaD	19:18	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	2	0	0	—	2	-1
20B. ColemanBlake ColemanL	17:44	0	1	1	1	2	0.11	−0.11	4	0	0	1	50%	0	-2
49M. ShabanovMaxim ShabanovR	17:30	1	0	1	2	3	0.27	+0.73	3	1	2	3	—	0	+1
47M. McCarronMichael McCarronC	15:16	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0.00	2	2	0	1	47%	0	+1
22D. YurovDanila YurovR	14:21	1	0	1	2	2	0.19	+0.81	1	0	0	0	33%	0	0
24Z. BogosianZach BogosianD	14:12	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	1	0	1	—	0	+1
48D. HuntDaemon HuntD	14:08	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	−0.02	0	1	1	1	—	0	0
38R. HartmanRyan HartmanR	13:40	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.00	1	0	0	1	50%	0	-1
10B. BrinkBobby BrinkR	13:34	0	0	0	2	7	0.33	−0.33	1	1	0	2	—	0	-1
17M. FolignoMarcus FolignoL	13:25	0	0	0	1	1	0.00	−0.00	7	0	0	1	—	0	+1
13Y. TreninYakov TreninC	13:04	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	6	1	0	1	—	0	0
71N. FolignoNick FolignoL	3:29	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	1	—	0	0
MIN total		2	4	6	20	48	1.88	+0.12	26	17	3	20	44%	4

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Shabanov+0.53

Yurov+0.43

Coleman+0.03

Foligno−0.08

McCarron−0.20

Boldy−0.24

Eriksson Ek−0.28

Brink−0.30

Trenin−0.34

Foligno−0.41

Hartman−0.45

Kaprizov−0.68

Defence

Spurgeon+0.16

Hughes+0.09

Bogosian−0.15

Hunt−0.17

Brodin−0.31

Maatta−0.44

Goalie

Wallstedt+0.92

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Kaprizov·Yurov·Shabanov	7:57	11	4	5	44.4%	3	1	0	0	0.16	0.39	29.6%	−0.23	1	1	50%
Foligno·Trenin·McCarron	6:38	8	3	5	37.5%	2	2	0	0	0.01	0.20	2.7%	−0.19	2	1	67%
Boldy·Coleman·Eriksson Ek	6:01	10	3	3	50.0%	2	2	0	1	0.26	0.25	51.3%	+0.01	3	1	75%
Boldy·Kaprizov·Eriksson Ek	3:56	7	7	3	70.0%	2	1	0	0	0.09	0.01	91.3%	+0.08	3	0	100%
Foligno·Foligno·McCarron	2:42	4	1	3	25.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.05	0.0%	−0.05	0	1	0%
Coleman·Brink·Hartman	2:19	3	1	7	12.5%	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.49	0.0%	−0.49	0	1	0%
Trenin·Brink·Hartman	2:16	4	2	4	33.3%	0	2	0	0	0.11	0.02	82.5%	+0.09	0	0	—
Kaprizov·Brink·Hartman	2:02	5	5	0	100.0%	2	0	0	0	0.15	0.00	100.0%	+0.15	1	0	100%
Boldy·Brink·Hartman	2:01	3	1	2	33.3%	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.04	9.5%	−0.03	1	0	100%
Coleman·Yurov·Shabanov	1:52	3	2	1	66.7%	1	0	0	0	0.08	0.00	100.0%	+0.08	0	0	—
Foligno·Trenin·Hartman	0:52	2	0	3	0.0%	0	3	0	0	0.00	0.40	0.0%	−0.40	0	1	0%
Foligno·Trenin·McCarron	0:43	2	1	1	50.0%	0	0	0	0	0.02	0.00	100.0%	+0.02	0	0	—
Kaprizov·Hartman·Shabanov	0:41	4	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	1	0	100%
Coleman·Eriksson Ek·Brink	0:40	3	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	100.0%	+0.00	0	0	—
Kaprizov·Eriksson Ek·Brink	0:38	2	0	3	0.0%	0	2	0	0	0.00	0.32	0.0%	−0.32	0	0	—
Foligno·Kaprizov·McCarron	0:38	1	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Boldy·Coleman·Yurov	0:34	3	2	0	100.0%	2	0	0	0	0.12	0.00	100.0%	+0.12	0	0	—
Boldy·Kaprizov·Hartman	0:33	2	0	2	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.12	0.0%	−0.12	0	0	—
Kaprizov·Trenin·Hartman	0:32	2	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Boldy·Yurov·Shabanov	0:31	3	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
MIN 5v5	49:24		38	47	44.7%	16	19	1	2	1.20	2.48	32.6%	−1.28

Goalies

Jesper Wallstedt

MIN · 64:22

Saves: 25/28
SV%: .893
xGA: 3.89
GSAx: +0.89

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	21/24	.875	3.33	+0.33
Power play	2/2	1.000	0.29	+0.29
Shorthanded	2/2	1.000	0.27	+0.27
High danger	6/8	.750	2.29	+0.29

Colten Ellis

BUF · 64:22

Saves: 18/20
SV%: .900
xGA: 1.88
GSAx: −0.12

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	18/19	.947	1.62	+0.62
Power play	0/1	.000	0.26	−0.74
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	3/3	1.000	0.55	+0.55

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Minnesota Wild

Minutes

29:30Hughes
21:49Spurgeon
19:18Brodin
19:18Maatta
14:12Bogosian
14:08Hunt

24:58Kaprizov
23:24Boldy
20:26Eriksson Ek
17:44Coleman
17:30Shabanov
15:16McCarron
14:21Yurov
13:40Hartman
13:34Brink
13:25M. Foligno
13:04Trenin
3:29N. Foligno

Matchups

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareMINBUF

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

HughesD1 O7
BogosianD1 O1
SpurgeonD6 O6
MaattaD2 O2
HuntD1 O1
BrodinD2 O1
BoldyD3 O9
KaprizovD1 O6
Eriksson EkD2 O6
ShabanovD1 O5
BrinkD0 O3
HartmanD2 O3
TreninD1 O2
N. FolignoD0 O0
M. FolignoD1 O1
ColemanD4 O4
McCarronD1 O1
YurovD2 O2

Shift starts · darker = later period