NSH @ BUF 2–3 · 2026-03-07

Team	1	2	3	SOG
NSH	0	1	1	25
BUF	0	2	1	24

Story

– / 12

Result BUF 3–2Call No lean · BUF 57%Market BUF 64%xG 2.78–3.24 · deserved BUF 58%Swing Thompson +24 2nd 12:39Method

Goals and penalties with BUF win probability
Time	Event	BUF win before	BUF win after
1st 7:12	NSH penalty · T. Jost · roughing · 2 min
1st 7:12	BUF penalty · P. Krebs · roughing · 2 min
1st 8:43	NSH penalty · S. Stamkos · tripping · 2 min
2nd 1:17	Goal NSH · Z. L'Heureux	56%	35%
2nd 6:13	BUF penalty · R. McLeod · hooking · 2 min
2nd 12:39	Goal BUF · T. Thompson	31%	55%
2nd 14:17	Goal BUF · J. Zucker	55%	78%
3rd 0:16	Goal BUF · J. Doan	80%	94%
3rd 7:09	BUF penalty · M. Samuelsson · boarding · 2 min
3rd 11:27	NSH penalty · T. Jost · slashing · 2 min
3rd 15:55	BUF penalty · J. Quinn · interference · 2 min
3rd 16:08	Goal NSH · M. Wood (PP)	99%	93%

On ice · final horn

NSH6 skaters · net empty

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
90R. O'ReillyC	0:34	21:20	23	0	1	1	2	4	0	0	1	11-3
91S. StamkosC	2:18	17:53	19	0	1	1	1	2	2	1	1	11-3
9F. ForsbergL	1:49	18:48	19	0	0	0	4	11	0	0	0	–
71M. WoodR	0:57	15:57	18	1	0	1	3	7	0	0	3	6-5
81J. MarchessaultR	0:34	17:03	18	0	1	1	0	1	0	2	0	–
59R. JosiD	2:26	25:56	27	0	1	1	2	5	0	0	0	–

BUF5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
10S. CarrickC	0:34	8:55	13	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	1	4-4
71R. McLeodC	0:34	17:32	24	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	4-9
89A. TuchR	0:59	21:19	27	0	1	1	0	3	0	2	1	–
23M. SamuelssonD	1:15	24:36	31	0	0	0	1	4	2	1	1	–
25O. PowerD	0:34	23:02	28	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	3	–
34A. LyonG		60:00	SA25GA2SV%.920xGA2.78GSAx+0.78

Goals

2nd
Zachary L'Heureux(1)
J. Marchessault (1), R. O'Reilly (1)
xG 0.09wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–0 NSH2nd 01:17+20.565%
Tage Thompson(1)
A. Tuch (1)
xG 0.20slapClip(opens nhl.com)
1–1 Tied2nd 12:39+24.055%
Jason Zucker(1)
J. Quinn (1), R. Dahlin (1)
xG 0.26wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–2 BUF2nd 14:17+22.978%
3rd
Josh Doan(1)
J. Norris (1), N. Ostlund (1)
xG 0.15snapClip(opens nhl.com)
1–3 BUF3rd 00:16+13.694%
Matthew Wood(1)PP6v4
R. Josi (1), S. Stamkos (1)
xG 0.10tip-inClip(opens nhl.com)
2–3 BUF3rd 16:08+6.37%

Shots

NSH2.78 xG40 unblocked · 20 blocked40 unblocked · 20 blocked

BUF3.24 xG43 unblocked · 12 blocked43 unblocked · 12 blocked

GoalSavedMissedBlockedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

NSHBUF2Goals32.78xG3.2425Shots2440Unblocked4360Attempts551High danger61/3Power play0/238Faceoffs2415Hits2012Blocks208Takeaways515Giveaways146PIM8

Skaters

Player

Player
59R. JosiRoman JosiD	25:56	0	1	1	2	5	0.07	−0.07	0	0	0	2	—	0	-2
76B. SkjeiBrady SkjeiD	21:35	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.00	0	0	2	1	—	0	-2
90R. O'ReillyRyan O'ReillyC	21:20	0	1	1	2	4	0.46	−0.46	0	0	1	0	79%	0	0
41N. HagueNicolas HagueD	20:59	0	0	0	3	5	0.18	−0.18	1	2	0	1	—	0	+1
9F. ForsbergFilip ForsbergL	18:48	0	0	0	4	11	0.56	−0.56	0	0	1	1	—	0	-1
48N. PerbixNick PerbixD	18:41	0	0	0	2	3	0.13	−0.13	1	3	0	1	—	0	0
91S. StamkosSteven StamkosC	17:53	0	1	1	1	2	0.13	−0.13	1	1	0	1	79%	2	-1
81J. MarchessaultJonathan MarchessaultR	17:03	0	1	1	0	1	0.02	−0.02	2	0	2	1	—	0	0
56E. HaulaErik HaulaL	16:12	0	0	0	3	3	0.08	−0.08	2	0	1	1	43%	0	0
71M. WoodMatthew WoodR	15:57	1	0	1	3	7	0.57	+0.43	0	2	0	0	55%	0	-1
77L. EvangelistaLuke EvangelistaR	15:48	0	0	0	3	6	0.28	−0.28	0	0	0	0	—	0	-1
25J. KemellJoakim KemellR	15:00	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	2	1	1	1	—	0	0
85R. UfkoRyan UfkoD	13:44	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.00	1	0	0	0	—	0	-1
68Z. L'HeureuxZachary L'HeureuxL	13:26	1	0	1	2	5	0.31	+0.69	2	1	0	0	0%	0	+1
20J. BarronJustin BarronD	12:49	0	0	0	0	3	0.00	0.00	1	0	0	1	—	0	0
17T. JostTyson JostC	10:47	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0	—	4	-1
40F. SvechkovFedor SvechkovC	9:49	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1	1	0	2	50%	0	-1
89O. WiesblattOzzy WiesblattC	9:21	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1	0	0	0	—	0	-1
NSH total		2	4	6	25	60	2.78	−0.78	15	11	8	13	61%	6

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Wood+0.78

L'Heureux+0.59

Marchessault+0.26

Kemell+0.03

Svechkov−0.07

O'Reilly−0.18

Forsberg−0.24

Haula−0.27

Evangelista−0.28

Wiesblatt−0.34

Stamkos−0.37

Jost−0.52

Defence

Perbix+0.16

Hague+0.10

Josi+0.07

Barron−0.17

Skjei−0.21

Ufko−0.22

Goalie

Saros−0.27

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Haula·L'Heureux·Kemell	9:44	14	7	13	35.0%	3	0	0	0	0.31	0.16	66.2%	+0.15	1	4	20%
O'Reilly·Stamkos·Marchessault	8:05	11	5	9	35.7%	1	4	0	1	0.04	0.50	8.1%	−0.46	2	0	100%
Forsberg·Wood·Evangelista	7:42	10	10	7	58.8%	5	5	0	1	0.34	0.48	41.4%	−0.14	1	0	100%
Jost·Svechkov·Wiesblatt	7:36	9	3	9	25.0%	0	6	0	1	0.00	0.70	0.0%	−0.70	0	1	0%
Occasional · 9 groups
O'Reilly·Stamkos·Evangelista	2:03	3	1	1	50.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.02	0.0%	−0.02	0	0	—
Forsberg·Wood·Marchessault	1:59	4	3	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.15	0.00	100.0%	+0.15	1	0	100%
Forsberg·Kemell·Wood	1:00	1	0	3	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.14	0.0%	−0.14	0	0	—
Forsberg·O'Reilly·Stamkos	0:51	2	3	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.08	0.00	100.0%	+0.08	2	0	100%
Wood·Evangelista·Marchessault	0:45	1	1	1	50.0%	0	0	0	0	0.14	0.08	63.6%	+0.06	0	0	—
Haula·Wood·Evangelista	0:36	2	2	2	50.0%	1	2	0	0	0.07	0.13	36.3%	−0.06	0	0	—
L'Heureux·Jost·Svechkov	0:35	2	0	2	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.02	0.0%	−0.02	0	0	—
L'Heureux·O'Reilly·Kemell	0:34	4	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
L'Heureux·O'Reilly·Marchessault	0:33	4	1	0	100.0%	1	0	1	0	0.09	0.00	100.0%	+0.09	0	0	—
NSH 5v5	49:19		43	51	45.7%	14	22	1	3	1.44	2.45	36.9%	−1.01

Goalies

Juuse Saros

NSH · 58:52

Saves: 21/24
SV%: .875
xGA: 2.71
GSAx: −0.29

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	19/22	.864	2.45	−0.55
Power play	1/1	1.000	0.18	+0.18
Shorthanded	1/1	1.000	0.08	+0.08
High danger	2/5	.400	0.99	−2.01

Alex Lyon

BUF · 60:00

Saves: 23/25
SV%: .920
xGA: 2.78
GSAx: +0.78

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	15/16	.938	1.78	+0.78
Power play	7/8	.875	0.84	−0.16
Shorthanded	1/1	1.000	0.15	+0.15
High danger	1/1	1.000	0.17	+0.17

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Nashville Predators

Minutes

25:56Josi
21:35Skjei
20:59Hague
18:41Perbix
13:44Ufko
12:49Barron

21:20O'Reilly
18:48Forsberg
17:53Stamkos
17:03Marchessault
16:12Haula
15:57Wood
15:48Evangelista
15:00Kemell
13:26L'Heureux
10:47Jost
9:49Svechkov
9:21Wiesblatt

Matchups

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareNSHBUF

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

JosiD1 O5
UfkoD2 O3
HagueD2 O2
BarronD1 O1
PerbixD4 O3
SkjeiD3 O1
MarchessaultD0 O6
StamkosD0 O5
O'ReillyD2 O7
ForsbergD0 O5
WoodD0 O3
EvangelistaD0 O2
JostD1 O0
WiesblattD1 O0
SvechkovD1 O0
HaulaD4 O2
KemellD4 O2
L'HeureuxD5 O1

Shift starts · darker = later period