TBL @ TOR 5–2 · 2026-03-07

Team	1	2	3	SOG
TBL	4	0	1	33
TOR	1	0	1	29

Story

– / 16

Result TBL 5–2Call No lean · TBL 66%Market TBL 67%xG 3.74–2.48 · deserved TBL 70%Swing McDonagh +17 1st 5:36Method

Goals and penalties with TOR win probability
Time	Event	TOR win before	TOR win after
1st 4:50	Goal TOR · M. Maccelli	34%	51%
1st 5:36	Goal TBL · R. McDonagh	51%	34%
1st 6:41	TBL penalty · C. Geekie · tripping · 2 min
1st 12:14	TOR penalty · M. Domi · fighting · 5 min
1st 12:14	TBL penalty · C. D'Astous · fighting · 5 min
1st 12:30	Goal TBL · J. Guentzel	35%	20%
1st 13:48	Goal TBL · C. Perry	20%	9%
1st 14:31	TOR penalty · B. Carlo · hooking · 2 min
1st 15:06	Goal TBL · O. Bjorkstrand (PP)	9%	3%
1st 17:49	TBL penalty · D. Raddysh · tripping · 2 min
2nd 7:34	TOR penalty · T. Stecher · high sticking · 2 min
2nd 11:33	TBL penalty · S. Sabourin · tripping · 2 min
2nd 14:22	TOR penalty · N. Robertson · too many men on the ice · 2 min
3rd 0:16	TOR penalty · S. Benoit · holding · 2 min
3rd 15:41	Goal TBL · B. Hagel (EN)	1%	1%
3rd 19:29	Goal TOR · N. Robertson	1%	1%

On ice · final horn

TBL5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
37Y. GourdeC	0:31	16:33	23	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	5-8
22O. BjorkstrandR	0:31	14:56	21	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	1	1-1
29P. HolmbergR	0:55	14:01	19	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	–
77V. HedmanD	0:54	20:54	26	0	0	0	2	3	0	3	0	–
81E. CernakD	0:31	19:45	25	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	2	–
88A. VasilevskiyG		59:19	SA29GA2SV%.931xGA2.48GSAx+0.48

TOR5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
11M. DomiC	0:43	13:39	17	0	0	0	1	2	5	0	0	3-6
81D. JoshuaC	0:50	14:06	19	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	–
89N. RobertsonL	0:51	15:08	20	1	0	1	6	6	2	2	0	–
2S. BenoitD	1:05	15:13	24	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	–
28T. StecherD	1:04	16:07	25	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	1	–
41A. StolarzG		59:22	SA32GA4SV%.875xGA3.24GSAx−0.76

Goals

1st
Matias Maccelli(1)
W. Nylander (1)
xG 0.10wristClip(opens nhl.com)
0–1 TOR1st 04:50+17.051%
Ryan McDonagh(1)
N. Kucherov (1), B. Point (1)
xG 0.02wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–1 Tied1st 05:36+17.166%
Jake Guentzel(1)
B. Point (2), N. Kucherov (2)
xG 0.13backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
2–1 TBL1st 12:30+15.580%
Corey Perry(1)
B. Hagel (1), A. Cirelli (1)
xG 0.14snapClip(opens nhl.com)
3–1 TBL1st 13:48+10.491%
Oliver Bjorkstrand(1)PP
N. Kucherov (3), J. Guentzel (1)
xG 0.10slapClip(opens nhl.com)
4–1 TBL1st 15:06+5.597%
3rd
Brandon Hagel(1)EN
A. Cirelli (2), N. Kucherov (4)
xG 0.50wrist
5–1 TBL3rd 15:41+0.099%
Nick Robertson(1)
Unassisted
xG 0.07wrap-around
5–2 TBL3rd 19:29+0.01%

Shots

TBL3.74 xG44 unblocked · 12 blocked44 unblocked · 12 blocked

TOR2.48 xG35 unblocked · 12 blocked35 unblocked · 12 blocked

GoalSavedMissedBlockedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

TBLTOR5Goals23.74xG2.4833Shots2944Unblocked3556Attempts474High danger31/4Power play0/322Faceoffs3126Hits2212Blocks125Takeaways412Giveaways1511PIM13

Skaters

Player

Player
77V. HedmanVictor HedmanD	20:54	0	0	0	2	3	0.03	−0.03	3	0	1	0	—	0	0
43D. RaddyshDarren RaddyshD	20:45	0	0	0	5	9	0.55	−0.55	3	0	0	0	—	2	+1
81E. CernakErik CernakD	19:45	0	0	0	1	2	0.01	−0.01	2	2	0	0	—	0	+1
38B. HagelBrandon HagelL	18:50	1	1	2	3	5	0.69	+0.31	0	0	0	0	—	0	+2
90J. MoserJ.J. MoserD	18:44	0	0	0	3	4	0.19	−0.19	1	1	1	1	—	0	0
86N. KucherovNikita KucherovR	18:36	0	4	4	1	3	0.19	−0.19	0	0	0	2	—	0	+3
27R. McDonaghRyan McDonaghD	17:25	1	0	1	2	2	0.04	+0.96	1	1	0	0	—	0	+2
59J. GuentzelJake GuentzelC	17:06	1	1	2	2	3	0.32	+0.68	0	1	0	1	20%	0	+2
21B. PointBrayden PointC	16:52	0	2	2	1	4	0.42	−0.42	0	0	1	1	43%	0	+2
37Y. GourdeYanni GourdeC	16:33	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1	0	1	0	38%	0	-1
51C. D'AstousCharle-Edouard D'AstousD	16:04	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	1	2	0	2	—	5	0
71A. CirelliAnthony CirelliC	15:43	0	2	2	5	5	0.39	−0.39	1	2	1	0	44%	0	+2
10C. PerryCorey PerryR	14:58	1	0	1	4	5	0.48	+0.52	0	0	0	2	—	0	0
22O. BjorkstrandOliver BjorkstrandR	14:56	1	0	1	2	2	0.13	+0.87	3	1	0	1	50%	0	-1
29P. HolmbergPontus HolmbergR	14:01	0	0	0	0	2	0.14	−0.14	0	1	0	0	—	0	-2
28Z. GirgensonsZemgus GirgensonsC	13:18	0	0	0	1	3	0.04	−0.04	3	0	0	0	60%	0	-1
46S. SabourinScott SabourinR	10:07	0	0	0	1	1	0.10	−0.10	2	0	0	1	—	2	0
14C. GeekieConor GeekieC	10:04	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	−0.02	5	0	0	1	40%	2	0
TBL total		5	10	15	33	56	3.74	+1.26	26	11	5	12	42%	11

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Kucherov+1.21

Cirelli+0.73

Guentzel+0.54

Perry+0.45

Bjorkstrand+0.42

Point+0.37

Hagel+0.33

Holmberg−0.14

Gourde−0.23

Girgensons−0.39

Sabourin−0.40

Geekie−0.42

Defence

McDonagh+0.32

Cernak−0.03

Hedman−0.08

Moser−0.12

D'Astous−0.13

Raddysh−0.21

Goalie

Vasilevskiy+0.50

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Point·Guentzel·Kucherov	8:54	14	8	8	50.0%	3	5	2	0	0.68	0.37	64.7%	+0.31	3	0	100%
Geekie·Perry·Sabourin	8:18	12	7	6	53.8%	5	5	0	0	0.44	0.44	49.9%	−0.00	0	0	—
Gourde·Bjorkstrand·Holmberg	7:45	15	3	5	37.5%	3	1	0	1	0.12	0.14	46.2%	−0.02	2	3	40%
Hagel·Girgensons·Cirelli	5:34	10	10	3	76.9%	6	2	0	0	0.29	0.18	61.3%	+0.11	0	5	0%
Occasional · 9 groups
Girgensons·Gourde·Holmberg	2:10	4	3	3	50.0%	1	3	0	0	0.01	0.40	3.2%	−0.39	1	0	100%
Hagel·Cirelli·Perry	2:04	4	4	0	100.0%	3	0	1	0	0.33	0.00	100.0%	+0.33	1	2	33%
Girgensons·Gourde·Bjorkstrand	2:03	3	2	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.01	0.00	100.0%	+0.01	1	0	100%
Hagel·Cirelli·Kucherov	1:15	4	2	3	40.0%	2	0	0	0	0.17	0.02	90.0%	+0.15	0	0	—
Point·Guentzel·Bjorkstrand	0:45	1	0	2	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.02	0.0%	−0.02	0	0	—
Point·Guentzel·Sabourin	0:42	4	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Hagel·Perry·Holmberg	0:37	1	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Hagel·Cirelli·Holmberg	0:32	2	2	0	100.0%	2	0	0	0	0.14	0.00	100.0%	+0.14	0	0	—
Gourde·Guentzel·Kucherov	0:31	3	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
TBL 5v5	46:06		44	36	55.0%	26	22	3	2	2.33	1.87	55.5%	+0.46

Goalies

Andrei Vasilevskiy

TBL · 59:19

Saves: 27/29
SV%: .931
xGA: 2.48
GSAx: +0.48

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	22/24	.917	2.13	+0.13
Power play	3/3	1.000	0.28	+0.28
Shorthanded	2/2	1.000	0.07	+0.07
High danger	3/3	1.000	0.70	+0.70

Anthony Stolarz

TOR · 59:22

Saves: 28/32
SV%: .875
xGA: 3.24
GSAx: −0.76

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	24/27	.889	2.45	−0.55
Power play	3/4	.750	0.69	−0.31
Shorthanded	1/1	1.000	0.10	+0.10
High danger	2/2	1.000	0.59	+0.59

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Tampa Bay Lightning

Minutes

20:54Hedman
20:45Raddysh
19:45Cernak
18:44Moser
17:25McDonagh
16:04D'Astous

18:50Hagel
18:36Kucherov
17:06Guentzel
16:52Point
16:33Gourde
15:43Cirelli
14:58Perry
14:56Bjorkstrand
14:01Holmberg
13:18Girgensons
10:07Sabourin
10:04Geekie

Matchups

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareTBLTOR

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

HedmanD1 O1
D'AstousD1 O1
RaddyshD4 O2
CernakD4 O2
McDonaghD5 O1
MoserD6 O0
KucherovD0 O6
GuentzelD0 O5
PointD0 O5
BjorkstrandD3 O6
GeekieD0 O1
PerryD2 O2
GourdeD4 O4
SabourinD0 O0
HolmbergD3 O3
GirgensonsD4 O2
HagelD9 O0
CirelliD10 O0

Shift starts · darker = later period