CAR @ CGY 4–5 · 2026-03-07

Team	1	2	3	SOG
CAR	1	0	3	29
CGY	0	3	2	25

Story

– / 16

Result CGY 5–4Call No lean · CAR 66%Market CAR 67%xG 2.90–2.74 · deserved CAR 53%Swing Farabee +21 2nd 4:11Method

Goals and penalties with CGY win probability
Time	Event	CGY win before	CGY win after
1st 0:44	Goal CAR · S. Jarvis	34%	21%
1st 4:44	CAR penalty · K. Miller · high sticking · 2 min
1st 17:06	CGY penalty · A. Klapka · roughing · 2 min
2nd 0:19	Goal CGY · R. Strome	20%	37%
2nd 4:11	Goal CGY · J. Farabee	37%	58%
2nd 4:30	CAR penalty · K. Miller · hooking · 2 min
2nd 7:00	CAR penalty · M. Reilly · tripping · 2 min
2nd 7:06	Goal CGY · M. Frost (PP)	59%	78%
2nd 19:01	CGY penalty · B. Pachal · roughing · 2 min
2nd 19:01	CAR penalty · S. Aho · roughing · 2 min
3rd 2:24	Goal CGY · B. Coleman	88%	96%
3rd 4:41	Goal CAR · S. Walker	97%	90%
3rd 5:15	CGY penalty · B. Pachal · interference · 2 min
3rd 5:43	Goal CAR · A. Nikishin (PP)	91%	72%
3rd 17:42	Goal CGY · J. Farabee	93%	100%
3rd 19:48	Goal CAR · A. Svechnikov	100%	99%

On ice · final horn

CAR6 skaters · net empty

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
11J. StaalC	0:32	15:30	23	0	0	0	0	3	0	6	2	12-10
20S. AhoC	0:12	18:20	23	0	3	3	1	4	2	1	0	7-5
24S. JarvisC	2:18	19:29	22	1	2	3	2	5	0	1	1	–
27N. EhlersL	0:12	14:40	20	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	–
37A. SvechnikovR	1:03	16:01	19	1	1	2	1	6	0	0	0	–
21A. NikishinD	0:12	16:45	20	1	0	1	1	2	0	2	2	–

CGY5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
11M. BacklundC	0:12	18:03	25	0	0	0	2	3	0	1	0	8-11
20B. ColemanL	0:12	17:50	26	1	1	2	2	3	0	2	2	0-1
27M. CoronatoR	0:35	17:26	22	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	–
3O. MaattaD	1:25	23:54	33	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	5	–
7K. BahlD	0:12	25:50	30	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	–
32D. WolfG		59:46	SA29GA4SV%.862xGA2.90GSAx−1.10

Goals

1st
Seth Jarvis(1)
A. Svechnikov (1), S. Aho (1)
xG 0.10wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–0 CAR1st 00:44+13.579%
2nd
Ryan Strome(1)
O. Maatta (1), M. Pospisil (1)
xG 0.09wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–1 Tied2nd 00:19+16.637%
Joel Farabee(1)
M. Frost (1), B. Coleman (1)
xG 0.07wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–2 CGY2nd 04:11+20.658%
Morgan Frost(1)PP
Z. Parekh (1), R. Strome (1)
xG 0.17wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–3 CGY2nd 07:06+18.678%
3rd
Blake Coleman(1)
J. Farabee (1)
xG 0.19wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–4 CGY3rd 02:24+8.496%
Sean Walker(1)
T. Hall (1), S. Aho (2)
xG 0.06wrist
2–4 CGY3rd 04:41+7.410%
Alexander Nikishin(1)PP
S. Aho (3), S. Jarvis (1)
xG 0.05slapClip(opens nhl.com)
3–4 CGY3rd 05:43+18.628%
Joel Farabee(2)
M. Frost (2)
xG 0.17backhand
3–5 CGY3rd 17:42+6.6100%
Andrei Svechnikov(1)6v5
K. Miller (1), S. Jarvis (2)
xG 0.17wrist
4–5 CGY3rd 19:48+0.21%

Shots

CAR2.90 xG47 unblocked · 10 blocked47 unblocked · 10 blocked

CGY2.74 xG33 unblocked · 12 blocked33 unblocked · 12 blocked

GoalSavedMissedBlockedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

CARCGY4Goals52.90xG2.7429Shots2547Unblocked3357Attempts454High danger61/2Power play1/332Faceoffs2920Hits2612Blocks107Takeaways622Giveaways138PIM6

Skaters

Player

Player
19K. MillerK'Andre MillerD	23:51	0	1	1	5	6	0.16	−0.16	1	0	0	0	—	4	-1
26S. WalkerSean WalkerD	23:22	1	0	1	1	3	0.06	+0.94	1	1	0	2	—	0	-1
74J. SlavinJaccob SlavinD	22:24	0	0	0	1	2	0.03	−0.03	0	0	2	1	—	0	0
5J. ChatfieldJalen ChatfieldD	21:53	0	0	0	1	1	0.03	−0.03	0	3	0	0	—	0	0
24S. JarvisSeth JarvisC	19:29	1	2	3	2	5	0.40	+0.60	1	1	2	2	—	0	+2
20S. AhoSebastian AhoC	18:20	0	3	3	1	4	0.07	−0.07	1	0	1	2	58%	2	+1
22L. StankovenLogan StankovenC	18:17	0	0	0	0	2	0.16	−0.16	3	0	0	1	46%	0	0
53J. BlakeJackson BlakeR	16:56	0	0	0	2	3	0.20	−0.20	0	1	1	4	—	0	-1
21A. NikishinAlexander NikishinD	16:45	1	0	1	1	2	0.05	+0.95	2	2	0	0	—	0	0
37A. SvechnikovAndrei SvechnikovR	16:01	1	1	2	1	6	0.30	+0.70	0	0	1	3	—	0	+1
11J. StaalJordan StaalC	15:30	0	0	0	0	3	0.26	−0.26	6	2	0	1	55%	0	-1
71T. HallTaylor HallL	14:47	0	1	1	0	1	0.00	0.00	0	1	0	0	—	0	0
27N. EhlersNikolaj EhlersL	14:40	0	0	0	2	4	0.32	−0.32	0	0	0	1	—	0	-2
48J. MartinookJordan MartinookL	12:28	0	0	0	4	4	0.15	−0.15	0	1	0	0	50%	0	-2
50E. RobinsonEric RobinsonL	10:33	0	0	0	3	3	0.21	−0.21	0	0	0	1	—	0	0
77M. JankowskiMark JankowskiL	10:31	0	0	0	2	3	0.20	−0.20	1	0	0	0	50%	0	0
28W. CarrierWilliam CarrierL	10:11	0	0	0	1	2	0.28	−0.28	4	0	0	0	—	0	0
6M. ReillyMike ReillyD	9:30	0	0	0	2	3	0.01	−0.01	0	0	0	0	—	2	0
CAR total		4	8	12	29	57	2.90	+1.10	20	12	7	18	52%	8

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Svechnikov+0.97

Jarvis+0.70

Aho+0.43

Hall+0.19

Carrier+0.08

Jankowski−0.09

Robinson−0.21

Ehlers−0.26

Staal−0.31

Martinook−0.35

Blake−0.40

Stankoven−0.49

Defence

Nikishin+0.51

Walker+0.28

Chatfield−0.06

Slavin−0.27

Reilly−0.33

Miller−0.35

Goalie

Bussi−2.24

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Hall·Stankoven·Blake	8:23	13	6	8	42.9%	2	5	0	0	0.11	0.22	33.9%	−0.11	2	1	67%
Aho·Jarvis·Svechnikov	6:37	12	12	2	85.7%	5	2	1	0	0.42	0.05	88.8%	+0.37	1	3	25%
Ehlers·Martinook·Staal	6:14	10	4	11	26.7%	2	7	0	2	0.24	1.19	17.0%	−0.94	2	1	67%
Carrier·Robinson·Jankowski	5:11	8	5	0	100.0%	3	0	0	0	0.42	0.00	100.0%	+0.42	0	1	0%
Stankoven·Svechnikov·Blake	4:39	8	4	4	50.0%	1	1	0	1	0.21	0.31	40.9%	−0.09	2	0	100%
Ehlers·Staal·Jarvis	4:30	7	5	6	45.5%	3	2	0	0	0.39	0.16	70.3%	+0.22	2	1	67%
Carrier·Martinook·Jankowski	3:09	6	5	0	100.0%	5	0	0	0	0.20	0.00	100.0%	+0.20	0	0	—
Robinson·Hall·Aho	2:50	5	3	4	42.9%	3	3	1	1	0.22	0.29	42.7%	−0.07	1	0	100%
Occasional · 5 groups
Hall·Aho·Jarvis	1:17	5	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.02	0.0%	−0.02	0	0	—
Ehlers·Aho·Jarvis	1:01	6	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Robinson·Aho·Svechnikov	0:53	3	0	3	0.0%	0	2	0	0	0.00	0.22	0.0%	−0.22	0	0	—
Carrier·Stankoven·Blake	0:47	2	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Stankoven·Jarvis·Svechnikov	0:30	6	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
CAR 5v5	49:39		47	40	54.0%	27	22	2	4	2.35	2.46	48.8%	−0.11

Goalies

Brandon Bussi

CAR · 58:26

Saves: 20/25
SV%: .800
xGA: 2.74
GSAx: −2.26

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	18/22	.818	2.48	−1.52
Power play	2/3	.667	0.26	−0.74
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	3/6	.500	1.21	−1.79

Dustin Wolf

CGY · 59:46

Saves: 25/29
SV%: .862
xGA: 2.90
GSAx: −1.10

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	25/28	.893	2.61	−0.39
Power play	0/1	.000	0.27	−0.73
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.01	+0.01
High danger	0/1	.000	0.73	−0.27

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Carolina Hurricanes

Minutes

23:51Miller
23:22Walker
22:24Slavin
21:53Chatfield
16:45Nikishin
9:30Reilly

19:29Jarvis
18:20Aho
18:17Stankoven
16:56Blake
16:01Svechnikov
15:30Staal
14:47Hall
14:40Ehlers
12:28Martinook
10:33Robinson
10:31Jankowski
10:11Carrier

Matchups

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareCARCGY

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

MillerD2 O4
NikishinD1 O3
WalkerD2 O3
ReillyD1 O1
SlavinD4 O2
ChatfieldD4 O2
HallD0 O3
EhlersD2 O5
AhoD1 O4
StankovenD0 O3
BlakeD0 O3
SvechnikovD1 O3
StaalD5 O6
JarvisD3 O4
CarrierD1 O1
RobinsonD1 O1
JankowskiD1 O0
MartinookD4 O3

Shift starts · darker = later period