BUF @ ANA 7–6 · 2026-10-29

BuffaloBUFSabres7

FinalOct 292026-10-29

Team	1	2	3	SOG
BUF	3	2	2	31
ANA	3	0	3	35

Honda Center

AnaheimANADucks6

CallNo lean · 44% ANA

Star 1T. Thompson3G 2A
Star 2C. Gauthier2G 0A
Star 3P. Krebs0G 3A

Closing linesDraftKings

-142Moneyline+120-1.5 +164Puck line+1.5 -198O -125Total 6.5U +105+105RegulationTie +310 +180-1351st period+105+1581st · 3-wayTie +190 +188

Season oddsafter: next morning's run

53%…Playoffs24%…1.4%…Cup0.1%…

Story

– / 20

Result BUF 7–6Call No lean · BUF 56%Market BUF 57%xG 4.36–3.80 · deserved BUF 59%Swing Thompson +24 2nd 18:36Method

Goals and penalties with ANA win probability
Time	Event	ANA win before	ANA win after
1st 0:35	BUF penalty · O. Zellweger · holding · 2 min
1st 1:37	BUF penalty · Z. Benson · tripping · 2 min
1st 1:57	Goal ANA · M. Granlund (PP)	44%	60%
1st 2:54	Goal ANA · C. Gauthier (PP)	60%	75%
1st 10:03	Goal BUF · T. Kozak	77%	62%
1st 10:38	Goal ANA · R. McQueen	62%	77%
1st 11:17	ANA penalty · T. Hinds · tripping · 2 min
1st 11:39	Goal BUF · N. Ostlund (PP)	77%	62%
1st 15:32	Goal BUF · T. Thompson	63%	45%
1st 17:39	BUF penalty · T. Kozak · high sticking · 2 min
2nd 8:19	ANA penalty · F. Vatrano · tripping · 2 min
2nd 18:36	Goal BUF · T. Thompson	46%	22%
2nd 18:51	Goal BUF · T. Thompson	22%	8%
3rd 1:07	ANA penalty · B. Sennecke · tripping · 2 min
3rd 1:57	Goal BUF · J. Quinn (PP)	7%	2%
3rd 6:37	Goal BUF · Z. Benson	1%	1%
3rd 6:49	BUF penalty · D. Gilbert · interference · 2 min
3rd 7:26	Goal ANA · C. Gauthier (PP)	1%	1%
3rd 18:52	Goal ANA · T. Luneau	1%	1%
3rd 19:29	Goal ANA · B. Sennecke	1%	1%

On ice · final horn

BUF5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
48T. KozakC	0:31	12:14	19	1	0	1	1	2	2	3	1	2-7
86N. OstlundC	0:31	19:26	24	1	0	1	5	7	0	0	0	3-9
29B. MalenstynL	0:31	13:11	20	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	1-1
23M. SamuelssonD	1:51	25:27	25	0	1	1	3	5	0	0	1	–
25O. PowerD	1:08	23:55	26	0	0	0	2	4	0	1	2	–
92C. EllisG		59:56	SA35GA6SV%.829xGA3.80GSAx−2.20

ANA5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
64M. GranlundC	1:08	23:14	22	1	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	13-10
91L. CarlssonC	1:08	22:09	24	0	3	3	5	6	0	0	0	6-5
61C. GauthierL	2:28	22:18	20	2	0	2	10	13	0	2	2	2-0
2J. LaCombeD	1:08	29:36	29	0	2	2	1	2	0	2	2	–
67T. LuneauD	3:22	21:57	26	1	0	1	3	6	0	1	1	–
33V. HussoG		53:34	SA31GA7SV%.774xGA3.55GSAx−3.45

Goals

1st
Mikael Granlund(3)PP
J. LaCombe (12), L. Carlsson (12)
xG 0.25snapClip(opens nhl.com)
0–1 ANA1st 01:57+16.160%
Cutter Gauthier(3)PP
B. Sennecke (4), L. Carlsson (13)
xG 0.03slapClip(opens nhl.com)
0–2 ANA1st 02:54+14.575%
Tyson Kozak(1)
S. Carrick (1), M. Samuelsson (6)
xG 0.02wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–2 ANA1st 10:03+15.138%
Roger McQueen(1)
S. Colangelo (4), N. Jensen (1)
xG 0.18snapClip(opens nhl.com)
1–3 ANA1st 10:38+15.177%
Noah Ostlund(4)PP
Z. Benson (8), T. Thompson (6)
xG 0.03snapClip(opens nhl.com)
2–3 ANA1st 11:39+15.238%
Tage Thompson(6)
Z. Benson (9), P. Krebs (5)
xG 0.51wristClip(opens nhl.com)
3–3 Tied1st 15:32+18.355%
2nd
Tage Thompson(7)
P. Krebs (6)
xG 0.05wristClip(opens nhl.com)
4–3 BUF2nd 18:36+24.078%
Tage Thompson(8)
R. Dahlin (4), P. Krebs (7)
xG 0.15wristClip(opens nhl.com)
5–3 BUF2nd 18:51+14.092%
3rd
Jack Quinn(7)PP
T. Thompson (7), R. Dahlin (5)
xG 0.11snapClip(opens nhl.com)
6–3 BUF3rd 01:57+5.098%
Zach Benson(2)
O. Zellweger (3)
xG 0.16snapClip(opens nhl.com)
7–3 BUF3rd 06:37+0.499%
Cutter Gauthier(4)PP
J. LaCombe (13), L. Carlsson (14)
xG 0.09slapClip(opens nhl.com)
7–4 BUF3rd 07:26+0.31%
Tristan Luneau(2)6v5
J. Caulfield (3)
xG 0.18snapClip(opens nhl.com)
7–5 BUF3rd 18:52+0.01%
Beckett Sennecke(8)6v5
Unassisted
xG 0.06snapClip(opens nhl.com)
7–6 BUF3rd 19:29+0.71%

Shots

Shooters

BUF4.36 xG45 unblocked · 10 blocked45 unblocked · 10 blocked

ANA3.80 xG47 unblocked · 11 blocked47 unblocked · 11 blocked

Goal, taller = higher xGSavedMissedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

BUFANA7Goals64.36xG3.8031Shots3545Unblocked4755Attempts5810High danger92/3Power play3/427Faceoffs4027Hits2711Blocks103Takeaways513Giveaways218PIM6

Skaters

Player

Player
26R. DahlinRasmus DahlinD	26:00	0	2	2	4	8	0.29	−0.29	2	0	1	0	—	0	+3
23M. SamuelssonMattias SamuelssonD	25:27	0	1	1	3	5	0.11	−0.11	0	1	0	1	—	0	+1
25O. PowerOwen PowerD	23:55	0	0	0	2	4	0.04	−0.04	1	2	0	2	—	0	-1
6Z. BensonZach BensonL	19:30	1	2	3	3	5	0.28	+0.72	2	1	0	0	—	2	+3
86N. OstlundNoah OstlundC	19:26	1	0	1	5	7	0.42	+0.58	0	0	0	0	25%	0	-1
22J. QuinnJack QuinnR	18:28	1	0	1	4	8	1.63	−0.63	1	0	0	2	—	0	-1
8O. ZellwegerOlen ZellwegerD	18:14	0	1	1	0	1	0.01	−0.01	1	0	0	2	—	2	-1
72T. ThompsonTage ThompsonC	17:49	3	2	5	4	5	0.96	+2.04	1	0	0	1	29%	0	+3
19P. KrebsPeyton KrebsC	15:55	0	3	3	1	2	0.00	−0.00	4	0	0	0	53%	0	+3
91J. DoanJosh DoanR	14:00	0	0	0	3	4	0.32	−0.32	0	0	1	0	50%	0	0
9J. NorrisJosh NorrisC	13:51	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	2	0	0	1	45%	0	-1
71R. McLeodRyan McLeodC	13:45	0	0	0	1	1	0.14	−0.14	0	0	1	1	43%	0	-1
29B. MalenstynBeck MalenstynL	13:11	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	3	0	0	2	50%	0	+1
46L. CrevierLouis CrevierD	12:39	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	−0.03	0	2	0	1	—	0	+1
48T. KozakTyson KozakC	12:14	1	0	1	1	2	0.13	+0.87	3	1	0	0	22%	2	0
17J. ZuckerJason ZuckerL	11:04	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	−0.02	2	2	0	0	—	0	-1
44D. GilbertDennis GilbertD	10:35	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	2	0	0	0	—	2	+1
10S. CarrickSam CarrickC	8:45	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0.00	3	0	0	0	100%	0	+1
BUF total		7	12	19	31	55	4.36	+2.64	27	9	3	13	40%	8

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Thompson+2.63

Benson+1.56

Krebs+0.58

Quinn+0.50

Carrick+0.41

Ostlund+0.33

Kozak+0.26

McLeod−0.07

Doan−0.10

Zucker−0.10

Norris−0.37

Malenstyn−0.37

Defence

Dahlin+0.80

Crevier+0.13

Zellweger−0.08

Samuelsson−0.08

Power−0.23

Gilbert−0.32

Goalie

Ellis−2.17

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Ostlund·Quinn·Doan	10:54	19	12	13	48.0%	6	11	0	0	0.50	0.79	38.8%	−0.29	3	0	100%
Benson·Krebs·Thompson	10:17	17	15	2	88.2%	9	2	4	0	1.16	0.50	70.1%	+0.67	4	1	80%
Zucker·Norris·McLeod	7:39	16	2	7	22.2%	1	2	0	1	0.05	0.42	10.8%	−0.37	0	1	0%
Malenstyn·Carrick·Kozak	6:10	11	4	2	66.7%	2	2	1	0	0.15	0.06	70.1%	+0.08	0	0	—
Occasional · 8 groups
Zucker·Ostlund·Doan	1:03	4	1	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.14	0.00	100.0%	+0.14	0	0	—
Malenstyn·Krebs·Kozak	0:53	2	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	2	0%
Zucker·Malenstyn·Kozak	0:39	3	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Malenstyn·Carrick·Krebs	0:37	2	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Malenstyn·Kozak·Thompson	0:35	1	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Carrick·Kozak·McLeod	0:33	2	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Norris·Carrick·McLeod	0:32	3	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Benson·Ostlund·Quinn	0:30	4	1	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.09	0.00	100.0%	+0.09	0	0	—
Other 32 brief groups	5:00		4	0	100.0%	3	0	0	0	0.37	0.00	100.0%	+0.37
BUF 5v5	45:22		40	26	60.6%	23	17	5	1	2.46	1.77	58.2%	+0.69

Goalies

Colten Ellis

BUF · 59:56

Saves: 29/35
SV%: .829
GAA: 6.01
xGA: 3.80
GSAx: −2.20

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	25/28	.893	2.87	−0.13
Power play	3/6	.500	0.93	−2.07
Shorthanded	1/1	1.000	0.00	+0.00
High danger	6/9	.667	1.98	−1.02

Ville Husso

ANA · 53:34

Saves: 24/31
SV%: .774
GAA: 7.84
xGA: 3.55
GSAx: −3.45

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	20/25	.800	2.69	−2.31
Power play	4/6	.667	0.86	−1.14
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	3/6	.500	1.75	−1.25

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Buffalo Sabres

Minutes

26:00Dahlin
25:27Samuelsson
23:55Power
18:14Zellweger
12:39Crevier
10:35Gilbert

19:30Benson
19:26Ostlund
18:28Quinn
17:49Thompson
15:55Krebs
14:00Doan
13:51Norris
13:45McLeod
13:11Malenstyn
12:14Kozak
11:04Zucker
8:45Carrick

Matchups

Full game

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareBUFANAGoalHard matchEdge bars = skater 5v5 total

Faceoffs

Both teams · pick a taker to focus

27–4040%

D 44%11–14N 32%8–17O 47%8–9 6 won into a shot

ANA attacks1114BUF DZ 44% ANA OZ

Neutral817BUF NZ 32% ANA NZ

BUF attacks89BUF OZ 47% ANA DZ

40–2760%

D 53%9–8N 68%17–8O 56%14–11 10 won into a shot

Bead = draw, winner’s colourClockwise from the top in game order Shot attempt within 10sHover a zone for its draws · click a taker to focus

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

ZellwegerD0 O1
GilbertD1 O0
DahlinD4 O2
CrevierD3 O0
PowerD3 O0
SamuelssonD5 O0
ThompsonD3 O6
QuinnD2 O4
DoanD0 O2
BensonD6 O7
OstlundD2 O2
ZuckerD1 O0
CarrickD1 O0
KrebsD5 O4
NorrisD2 O0
McLeodD4 O0
MalenstynD5 O0
KozakD5 O0

Shift starts · darker = later period