NYI @ MIN 4–3 · 2026-10-29

New YorkNYIIslanders4

Final/OTOct 292026-10-29

Team	1	2	3	OT	SOG
NYI	1	1	1	1	26
MIN	1	1	1	0	25

Grand Casino Arena

MinnesotaMINWild3

CallNo lean · 68% MIN

Star 1M. Schaefer2G 1A
Star 2B. Horvat1G 0A
Star 3Q. Hughes1G 1A

Closing linesDraftKings

+160Moneyline-192+1.5 -155Puck line-1.5 +130O -125Total 5.5U +105+230RegulationTie +330 -120+1251st period-165+2401st · 3-wayTie +175 +139

Season oddsafter: next morning's run

15%…Playoffs99%…0.1%…Cup9.0%…

Story

– / 12

Result NYI 4–3 OTCall No lean · MIN 68%Market MIN 64%xG 2.83–2.13 · deserved NYI 63%Swing Schaefer +57 OT 0:33Method

Goals and penalties with MIN win probability
Time	Event	MIN win before	MIN win after
1st 0:27	Goal MIN · J. Eriksson Ek	68%	81%
1st 7:14	NYI penalty · K. Palmieri · hooking · 2 min
1st 16:36	Goal NYI · M. Schaefer	82%	66%
2nd 0:57	MIN penalty · O. Maatta · tripping · 2 min
2nd 1:41	Goal NYI · B. Horvat (PP)	65%	45%
2nd 6:40	NYI penalty · J. Pageau · tripping · 2 min
2nd 17:21	Goal MIN · Q. Hughes	36%	62%
3rd 4:17	NYI penalty · A. Pelech · tripping · 2 min
3rd 7:14	Goal NYI · A. Pelech	60%	26%
3rd 10:43	MIN penalty · J. Eriksson Ek · tripping · 2 min
3rd 16:07	Goal MIN · M. Boldy	11%	58%
OT 0:33	Goal NYI · M. Schaefer	57%	0%

On ice · final horn

NYI3 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
44J. PageauC	0:13	15:56	27	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	1	12-8
92S. HolmstromR	0:29	20:18	25	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	–
48M. SchaeferD	0:33	30:01	35	1	1	2	5	8	0	1	2	–
30I. SorokinG		60:33	SA25GA3SV%.880xGA2.13GSAx−0.87

MIN3 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
14J. Eriksson EkC	0:33	17:12	21	1	0	1	2	4	2	2	1	5-9
97K. KaprizovL	0:33	21:50	23	0	1	1	3	4	0	2	0	–
43Q. HughesD	0:33	33:41	27	1	1	2	4	7	0	1	1	–
30J. WallstedtG		60:33	SA25GA3SV%.880xGA2.75GSAx−0.25

Goals

1st
Joel Eriksson Ek(5)
K. Kaprizov (10), Q. Hughes (16)
xG 0.05wristClip(opens nhl.com)
0–1 MIN1st 00:27+13.281%
Matthew Schaefer(3)
E. Heineman (4), V. Eklund (2)
xG 0.23wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–1 Tied1st 16:36+15.734%
2nd
Bo Horvat(7)PP
S. Holmstrom (3), M. Schaefer (10)
xG 0.10tip-inClip(opens nhl.com)
2–1 NYI2nd 01:41+20.455%
Quinn Hughes(4)
R. Hartman (3), J. Brodin (4)
xG 0.02backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
2–2 Tied2nd 17:21+26.662%
3rd
Adam Pelech(1)
Unassisted
xG 0.01wristClip(opens nhl.com)
3–2 NYI3rd 07:14+34.074%
Matt Boldy(6)
Unassisted
xG 0.10wristClip(opens nhl.com)
3–3 Tied3rd 16:07+47.258%
OT
Matthew Schaefer(4)
J. Pageau (6)
xG 0.09wristClip(opens nhl.com)
4–3 NYIOT 00:33+57.3100%

Shots

Shooters

NYI2.83 xG43 unblocked · 14 blocked43 unblocked · 14 blocked

MIN2.13 xG41 unblocked · 18 blocked41 unblocked · 18 blocked

Goal, taller = higher xGSavedMissedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

NYIMIN4Goals32.83xG2.1326Shots2543Unblocked4157Attempts594High danger31/2Power play0/333Faceoffs2530Hits3118Blocks144Takeaways616Giveaways236PIM4

Skaters

Player

Player
48M. SchaeferMatthew SchaeferD	30:01	2	1	3	6	9	0.44	+1.56	1	2	0	4	—	0	0
8L. StanleyLogan StanleyD	26:16	0	0	0	0	4	0.02	−0.02	0	2	0	0	—	0	-1
3A. PelechAdam PelechD	23:49	1	0	1	3	6	0.08	+0.92	1	3	0	1	—	2	-1
77T. DeAngeloTony DeAngeloD	21:26	0	0	0	0	3	0.05	−0.05	1	1	1	1	—	0	+1
14B. HorvatBo HorvatC	20:57	1	0	1	3	6	0.37	+0.63	2	2	1	0	65%	0	-1
92S. HolmstromSimon HolmstromR	20:18	0	1	1	2	3	0.10	−0.10	0	0	0	0	—	0	+1
51E. HeinemanEmil HeinemanL	17:09	0	1	1	2	2	0.08	−0.08	4	0	0	0	0%	0	+1
21K. PalmieriKyle PalmieriC	17:03	0	0	0	2	6	0.31	−0.31	3	1	0	1	—	2	0
44J. PageauJean-Gabriel PageauC	15:56	0	1	1	1	2	0.25	−0.25	0	1	0	1	60%	2	0
24S. MayfieldScott MayfieldD	15:51	0	0	0	1	1	0.04	−0.04	1	1	0	3	—	0	0
81O. PalatOndrej PalatL	15:44	0	0	0	0	2	0.09	−0.09	3	1	0	0	50%	0	-2
10B. SchennBrayden SchennC	14:18	0	0	0	1	2	0.25	−0.25	2	1	1	3	45%	0	+2
11A. DuclairAnthony DuclairL	14:07	0	0	0	3	6	0.45	−0.45	0	0	1	0	—	0	-1
38V. EklundVictor EklundR	12:52	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0.00	3	0	0	0	—	0	+1
53C. CizikasCasey CizikasC	11:02	0	0	0	2	4	0.28	−0.28	1	0	0	0	80%	0	-1
32K. MacLeanKyle MacLeanC	9:02	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	−0.03	5	0	0	1	0%	0	0
26M. ChaffeeMitchell ChaffeeR	8:57	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	3	0	0	1	0%	0	-1
6R. PulockRyan PulockD	0:51	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0	—	0	0
NYI total		4	5	9	26	57	2.83	+1.17	30	15	4	16	57%	6

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Horvat+0.59

Pageau+0.36

Holmstrom+0.28

Heineman+0.22

Palat+0.04

Palmieri−0.10

Cizikas−0.14

Duclair−0.17

MacLean−0.19

Eklund−0.19

Chaffee−0.21

Schenn−0.22

Defence

Schaefer+1.37

Pelech+0.61

Pulock−0.01

DeAngelo−0.04

Mayfield−0.05

Stanley−0.06

Goalie

Sorokin−0.86

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Horvat·Palmieri·Holmstrom	12:26	22	15	7	68.2%	5	1	0	0	0.51	0.13	80.1%	+0.39	5	0	100%
Heineman·Schenn·Eklund	10:28	17	9	10	47.4%	6	3	2	0	0.44	0.40	52.5%	+0.04	5	2	71%
Duclair·Palat·Pageau	10:05	19	12	13	48.0%	8	6	0	1	0.76	0.40	65.6%	+0.36	5	4	56%
MacLean·Cizikas·Chaffee	6:07	12	3	6	33.3%	0	5	0	0	0.03	0.12	22.7%	−0.08	0	0	—
Occasional · 10 groups
Heineman·Palat·Pageau	1:08	1	4	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.19	0.00	100.0%	+0.19	0	0	—
Palat·Pageau·Chaffee	0:57	3	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.05	0.0%	−0.05	0	0	—
Heineman·MacLean·Cizikas	0:43	2	1	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.04	0.00	100.0%	+0.04	0	0	—
Duclair·Horvat·Holmstrom	0:40	3	2	0	100.0%	2	0	0	0	0.15	0.00	100.0%	+0.15	0	0	—
Heineman·Cizikas·Chaffee	0:37	1	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Duclair·Palat·Horvat	0:33	4	0	2	0.0%	0	2	0	0	0.00	0.06	0.0%	−0.06	0	0	—
Duclair·Schenn·Eklund	0:33	1	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.08	0.0%	−0.08	0	0	—
Duclair·Pageau·Cizikas	0:30	1	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	1	0	100%
Palat·Cizikas·Chaffee	0:11	2	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.02	0.0%	−0.02	0	0	—
Heineman·Horvat·Eklund	0:10	2	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.10	0.0%	−0.10	0	0	—
Other 45 brief groups	6:08		4	3	57.1%	1	1	0	0	0.24	0.01	96.6%	+0.23
NYI 5v5	51:16		51	46	52.6%	23	21	2	3	2.37	1.37	63.5%	+1.01

Goalies

Ilya Sorokin

NYI · 60:33

Saves: 22/25
SV%: .880
GAA: 2.97
xGA: 2.13
GSAx: −0.87

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	18/21	.857	1.41	−1.59
Power play	4/4	1.000	0.71	+0.71
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	1/1	1.000	0.50	+0.50

Jesper Wallstedt

MIN · 60:33

Saves: 22/26
SV%: .846
GAA: 3.96
xGA: 2.83
GSAx: −1.17

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	22/25	.880	2.55	−0.45
Power play	0/1	.000	0.29	−0.71
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	3/4	.750	0.86	−0.14

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

New York Islanders

Minutes

30:01Schaefer
26:16Stanley
23:49Pelech
21:26DeAngelo
15:51Mayfield
0:51Pulock

20:57Horvat
20:18Holmstrom
17:09Heineman
17:03Palmieri
15:56Pageau
15:44Palat
14:18Schenn
14:07Duclair
12:52Eklund
11:02Cizikas
9:02MacLean
8:57Chaffee

Matchups

Full game

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareNYIMINGoalHard matchEdge bars = skater 5v5 total

Faceoffs

Both teams · pick a taker to focus

33–2557%

D 62%13–8N 46%6–7O 58%14–10 6 won into a shot

MIN attacks138NYI DZ 62% MIN OZ

Neutral67NYI NZ 46% MIN NZ

NYI attacks1410NYI OZ 58% MIN DZ

25–3343%

D 42%10–14N 54%7–6O 38%8–13 6 won into a shot

Bead = draw, winner’s colourClockwise from the top in game order Shot attempt within 10sHover a zone for its draws · click a taker to focus

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

SchaeferD1 O11
DeAngeloD2 O5
PelechD3 O3
PulockD0 O0
StanleyD4 O1
MayfieldD5 O1
PalmieriD0 O5
SchennD2 O7
PalatD3 O6
EklundD2 O5
CizikasD0 O2
DuclairD3 O5
HorvatD4 O5
HolmstromD3 O4
HeinemanD3 O4
MacLeanD0 O0
ChaffeeD0 O0
PageauD7 O6

Shift starts · darker = later period