WPG @ TBL 4–6 · 2026-10-29

WinnipegWPGJets4

FinalOct 292026-10-29

Team	1	2	3	SOG
WPG	1	0	3	21
TBL	1	4	1	31

Benchmark International Arena

Tampa BayTBLLightning6

CallNo lean · 71% TBL

Star 1P. Holmberg1G 3A
Star 2B. Hagel1G 2A
Star 3A. Cirelli1G 2A

Closing linesDraftKings

+180Moneyline-218+1.5 -142Puck line-1.5 +120O +114Total 6.5U -135+250RegulationTie +330 -130+1401st period-185+2551st · 3-wayTie +176 +132

Season oddsafter: next morning's run

17%…Playoffs97%…0.0%…Cup16%…

Story

– / 15

Result TBL 6–4Call No lean · TBL 71%Market TBL 67%xG 2.15–4.42 · deserved TBL 83%Swing Geekie +18 2nd 9:43Method

Goals and penalties with TBL win probability
Time	Event	TBL win before	TBL win after
1st 2:20	Goal TBL · B. Point	71%	83%
1st 17:45	Goal WPG · N. Pionk	83%	68%
2nd 2:55	WPG penalty · V. Björck · hooking · 2 min
2nd 6:50	TBL penalty · R. McDonagh · interference · 2 min
2nd 9:43	Goal TBL · C. Geekie	66%	84%
2nd 10:49	TBL penalty · N. Kucherov · tripping · 2 min
2nd 14:25	WPG penalty · D. DeMelo · holding · 2 min
2nd 15:56	Goal TBL · A. Cirelli (PP)	85%	95%
2nd 18:07	Goal TBL · J. Carlson	96%	99%
2nd 19:03	Goal TBL · B. Hagel	99%	99%
3rd 7:00	Goal WPG · D. Samberg	99%	99%
3rd 8:50	Goal WPG · N. Pionk	99%	98%
3rd 10:54	WPG penalty · V. Björck · interference · 2 min
3rd 17:12	Goal WPG · K. Connor	99%	96%
3rd 18:29	Goal TBL · P. Holmberg (EN)	98%	99%

On ice · final horn

WPG5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
36M. BarronC	0:20	13:40	21	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	9-6
93B. LambertC	0:20	8:58	14	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	–
45C. KoepkeL	0:20	8:48	14	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	–
2D. DeMeloD	0:20	19:53	25	0	0	0	2	5	2	0	1	–
38M. FerraroD	0:20	20:15	26	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	4	–
35N. DawsG		18:58	SA9GA0SV%1.000xGA1.11GSAx+1.11

TBL5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
17D. JamesC	0:20	11:48	18	0	1	1	2	3	0	1	0	4-8
94C. GeekieC	0:20	11:32	16	1	0	1	2	4	0	5	0	4-7
25J. VielL	0:20	11:22	16	0	1	1	1	2	0	1	0	–
51C. D'AstousD	0:20	19:18	23	0	0	0	2	3	0	1	1	–
78E. LillebergD	0:20	8:58	12	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	–
88A. VasilevskiyG		60:00	SA21GA4SV%.810xGA2.15GSAx−1.85

Goals

1st
Brayden Point(3)
N. Kucherov (11), J. Guentzel (6)
xG 0.11wristClip(opens nhl.com)
0–1 TBL1st 02:20+12.683%
Neal Pionk(2)
C. Perfetti (4), M. Scheifele (7)
xG 0.01slapClip(opens nhl.com)
1–1 Tied1st 17:45+15.232%
2nd
Conor Geekie(3)
D. James (2), J. Viel (1)
xG 0.13backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
1–2 TBL2nd 09:43+18.184%
Anthony Cirelli(4)PP
P. Holmberg (4), G. Goncalves (2)
xG 0.45deflectedClip(opens nhl.com)
1–3 TBL2nd 15:56+10.295%
John Carlson(4)
P. Holmberg (5), B. Hagel (7)
xG 0.12snapClip(opens nhl.com)
1–4 TBL2nd 18:07+3.499%
Brandon Hagel(8)
A. Cirelli (3), P. Holmberg (6)
xG 0.20snapClip(opens nhl.com)
1–5 TBL2nd 19:03+0.599%
3rd
Dylan Samberg(1)
C. Perfetti (5), M. Scheifele (8)
xG 0.14deflectedClip(opens nhl.com)
2–5 TBL3rd 07:00+0.01%
Neal Pionk(3)
D. Mercer (5), K. Connor (4)
xG 0.18snapClip(opens nhl.com)
3–5 TBL3rd 08:50+1.52%
Kyle Connor(10)6v5
M. Scheifele (9), D. Samberg (4)
xG 0.06wristClip(opens nhl.com)
4–5 TBL3rd 17:12+3.54%
Pontus Holmberg(4)EN
A. Cirelli (4), B. Hagel (8)
xG 0.43snapClip(opens nhl.com)
4–6 TBL3rd 18:29+1.899%

Shots

Shooters

WPG2.15 xG37 unblocked · 11 blocked37 unblocked · 11 blocked

TBL4.42 xG44 unblocked · 16 blocked44 unblocked · 16 blocked

Goal, taller = higher xGSavedMissedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

WPGTBL4Goals62.15xG4.4221Shots3137Unblocked4448Attempts603High danger70/2Power play1/343Faceoffs2728Hits1716Blocks112Takeaways111Giveaways166PIM4

Skaters

Player

Player
54D. SambergDylan SambergD	22:29	1	1	2	3	4	0.21	+0.79	2	1	0	1	—	0	+2
4N. PionkNeal PionkD	22:03	2	0	2	4	6	0.26	+1.74	4	1	0	1	—	0	+1
55M. ScheifeleMark ScheifeleC	20:31	0	3	3	0	2	0.17	−0.17	0	1	0	1	80%	0	+1
38M. FerraroMario FerraroD	20:15	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	−0.01	1	4	0	1	—	0	-1
2D. DeMeloDylan DeMeloD	19:53	0	0	0	2	5	0.07	−0.07	0	1	0	1	—	2	-1
81K. ConnorKyle ConnorL	19:09	1	1	2	3	8	0.19	+0.81	0	0	0	1	—	0	-2
13G. VilardiGabriel VilardiC	19:08	0	0	0	0	1	0.12	−0.12	0	1	0	1	60%	0	+1
91C. PerfettiCole PerfettiC	17:26	0	2	2	3	4	0.21	−0.21	2	1	0	1	—	0	+2
17A. LowryAdam LowryC	17:01	0	0	0	0	2	0.26	−0.26	2	0	0	0	54%	0	-1
57E. SalomonssonElias SalomonssonD	15:50	0	0	0	2	2	0.06	−0.06	1	0	1	0	—	0	-2
24H. FleuryHaydn FleuryD	15:44	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	2	1	0	0	—	0	-1
9A. IafalloAlex IafalloL	15:42	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	−0.03	2	0	0	0	—	0	-1
19D. MercerDawson MercerC	14:33	0	1	1	3	5	0.24	−0.24	0	0	0	0	—	0	-1
36M. BarronMorgan BarronC	13:40	0	0	0	0	1	0.11	−0.11	4	0	0	0	60%	0	-1
61V. BjörckViggo BjörckC	12:28	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	3	1	1	1	64%	4	0
27I. RosenIsak RosenR	11:53	0	0	0	1	4	0.21	−0.21	1	1	0	0	—	0	-1
93B. LambertBrad LambertC	8:58	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	−0.01	1	0	0	0	—	0	0
45C. KoepkeCole KoepkeL	8:48	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	3	1	0	1	—	0	0
WPG total		4	8	12	21	48	2.15	+1.85	28	14	2	10	61%	6

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Perfetti+1.02

Scheifele+0.52

Connor+0.46

Mercer+0.35

Rosen−0.12

Lambert−0.26

Vilardi−0.26

Koepke−0.27

Barron−0.35

Björck−0.47

Lowry−0.51

Iafallo−0.57

Defence

Pionk+0.99

Samberg+0.90

Ferraro−0.11

Salomonsson−0.15

Fleury−0.33

DeMelo−0.47

Goalie

Skinner−2.10

Daws+1.12

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Vilardi·Scheifele·Perfetti	11:57	16	10	6	62.5%	5	3	2	0	0.52	0.21	71.2%	+0.31	2	2	50%
Iafallo·Lowry·Rosen	9:36	15	6	12	33.3%	2	7	0	1	0.27	0.74	26.7%	−0.47	0	3	0%
Connor·Mercer·Björck	8:59	14	15	6	71.4%	7	2	1	1	0.53	0.18	75.0%	+0.35	4	0	100%
Koepke·Barron·Lambert	7:04	13	1	8	11.1%	0	3	0	0	0.01	0.32	2.0%	−0.32	1	3	25%
Occasional · 9 groups
Connor·Vilardi·Scheifele	1:37	5	0	2	0.0%	0	2	0	1	0.00	0.21	0.0%	−0.21	2	0	100%
Iafallo·Lowry·Barron	1:21	3	2	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.20	0.00	100.0%	+0.20	0	0	—
Connor·Mercer·Barron	1:04	5	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.11	0.0%	−0.11	0	0	—
Mercer·Scheifele·Perfetti	0:40	4	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Lowry·Mercer·Björck	0:40	2	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Koepke·Vilardi·Scheifele	0:39	3	0	3	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.24	0.0%	−0.24	0	0	—
Vilardi·Barron·Scheifele	0:34	2	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	1	0%
Iafallo·Koepke·Lowry	0:34	1	1	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.04	0.00	100.0%	+0.04	1	0	100%
Mercer·Björck·Rosen	0:33	3	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Other 29 brief groups	4:09		4	6	40.0%	1	3	0	0	0.03	0.18	13.1%	−0.16
WPG 5v5	49:27		39	44	47.0%	16	21	3	4	1.58	2.20	41.9%	−0.61

Goalies

Stuart Skinner

WPG · 40:00

Saves: 16/21
SV%: .762
GAA: 7.50
xGA: 2.88
GSAx: −2.12

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	10/14	.714	1.42	−2.58
Power play	6/7	.857	1.44	+0.44
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.02	+0.02
High danger	1/3	.333	1.12	−0.88

Nico Daws

WPG · 18:58

Saves: 9/9
SV%: 1.000
GAA: 0.00
xGA: 1.11
GSAx: +1.11

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	7/7	1.000	0.78	+0.78
Power play	2/2	1.000	0.33	+0.33
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	2/2	1.000	0.51	+0.51

Andrei Vasilevskiy

TBL · 60:00

Saves: 17/21
SV%: .810
GAA: 4.00
xGA: 2.15
GSAx: −1.85

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	13/17	.765	1.64	−2.36
Power play	4/4	1.000	0.34	+0.34
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.17	+0.17
High danger	0/1	.000	0.53	−0.47

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Winnipeg Jets

Minutes

22:29Samberg
22:03Pionk
20:15Ferraro
19:53DeMelo
15:50Salomonsson
15:44Fleury

20:31Scheifele
19:09Connor
19:08Vilardi
17:26Perfetti
17:01Lowry
15:42Iafallo
14:33Mercer
13:40Barron
12:28Björck
11:53Rosen
8:58Lambert
8:48Koepke

Matchups

Full game

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareWPGTBLGoalHard matchEdge bars = skater 5v5 total

Faceoffs

Both teams · pick a taker to focus

43–2761%

D 52%14–13N 59%13–9O 76%16–5 5 won into a shot

TBL attacks1413WPG DZ 52% TBL OZ

Neutral139WPG NZ 59% TBL NZ

WPG attacks165WPG OZ 76% TBL DZ

27–4339%

D 24%5–16N 41%9–13O 48%13–14 5 won into a shot

Bead = draw, winner’s colourClockwise from the top in game order Shot attempt within 10sHover a zone for its draws · click a taker to focus

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

PionkD5 O5
DeMeloD4 O3
FleuryD1 O0
SalomonssonD3 O2
FerraroD6 O3
SambergD6 O3
ScheifeleD3 O6
ConnorD2 O5
BjörckD1 O4
VilardiD3 O5
MercerD1 O3
PerfettiD2 O4
KoepkeD3 O2
LambertD3 O1
RosenD3 O0
BarronD5 O1
IafalloD7 O0
LowryD8 O0

Shift starts · darker = later period