COL @ NSH 2–6 · 2026-10-25

ColoradoCOLAvalanche2

FinalOct 252026-10-25

Team	1	2	3	SOG
COL	0	1	1	21
NSH	2	3	1	35

Bridgestone Arena

NashvilleNSHPredators6

CallNo lean · 30% NSH

Star 1R. O'Reilly2G 2A
Star 2S. Stamkos2G 1A
Star 3F. Forsberg1G 2A

Closing linesDraftKings

-238Moneyline+195-1.5 +105Puck line+1.5 -125O -110Total 6.5U -110-140RegulationTie +360 +255-2001st period+150+1251st · 3-wayTie +188 +250

Season odds

99%98%−0.9Playoffs14%22%+8.422%17%−4.2Cup0.1%0.0%−0.1

Story

– / 23

Result NSH 6–2Call No lean · COL 70%Market COL 69%xG 2.39–3.57 · deserved NSH 70%Swing Stamkos +17 1st 10:48Method

Goals and penalties with NSH win probability
Time	Event	NSH win before	NSH win after
1st 2:37	COL penalty · P. Kelly · hooking · 2 min
1st 4:01	Goal NSH · F. Forsberg (PP)	30%	46%
1st 10:48	Goal NSH · S. Stamkos	48%	66%
1st 11:08	NSH penalty · R. Josi · cross checking · 2 min
2nd 3:45	NSH penalty · N. Hague · interference · 2 min
2nd 5:55	COL penalty · T. Makar · too many men on the ice · 2 min
2nd 5:55	NSH penalty · J. Struble · roughing · 2 min
2nd 5:55	COL penalty · M. Necas · roughing · 2 min
2nd 6:38	Goal NSH · R. O'Reilly (PP)	75%	88%
2nd 7:13	NSH penalty · R. Josi · slashing · 2 min
2nd 13:57	COL penalty · P. Kelly · fighting · 5 min
2nd 13:57	NSH penalty · J. Struble · fighting · 5 min
2nd 16:36	Goal NSH · J. Drury	93%	98%
2nd 16:58	COL penalty · B. Nelson · interference · 2 min
2nd 17:29	Goal NSH · R. O'Reilly (PP)	98%	100%
2nd 17:55	Goal COL · A. Lehkonen	100%	98%
2nd 18:35	COL penalty · B. Burns · hooking · 2 min
3rd 1:23	NSH penalty · R. O'Reilly · hooking · 2 min
3rd 2:17	COL penalty · N. Kadri · tripping · 2 min
3rd 2:43	Goal COL · D. Toews	99%	96%
3rd 8:48	COL penalty · B. Burns · slashing · 2 min
3rd 9:28	COL penalty · L. O'Connor · high sticking · 2 min
3rd 10:24	Goal NSH · S. Stamkos (PP)	99%	100%

On ice · final horn

COL5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
11B. NelsonC	0:53	16:31	21	0	0	0	2	5	2	0	0	4-10
91N. KadriC	0:50	16:40	19	0	0	0	3	4	2	2	0	4-4
13T. HughesR	0:45	17:18	18	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	1	1-1
42J. MansonD	0:23	13:45	17	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	–
70S. MalinskiD	0:53	19:44	22	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	–
41S. WedgewoodG		60:00	SA35GA6SV%.829xGA3.57GSAx−2.43

NSH5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
14A. KerfootC	0:23	17:28	23	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	1	7-8
79R. ColtonC	0:23	15:27	22	0	1	1	2	6	0	2	2	–
81J. MarchessaultR	0:23	17:19	18	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	1-1
3J. StrubleD	0:55	15:07	19	0	0	0	0	3	7	7	2	–
41N. HagueD	0:44	15:56	22	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	1	–
29J. AnnunenG		60:00	SA21GA2SV%.905xGA2.39GSAx+0.39

Goals

1st
Filip Forsberg(2)PP
R. Josi (9), S. Stamkos (7)
xG 0.13snapClip(opens nhl.com)
0–1 NSH1st 04:01+16.046%
Steven Stamkos(6)
R. O'Reilly (5), M. Bourque (2)
xG 0.38wristClip(opens nhl.com)
0–2 NSH1st 10:48+17.366%
2nd
Ryan O'Reilly(5)PP
R. Josi (10), F. Forsberg (8)
xG 0.11backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
0–3 NSH2nd 06:38+13.388%
Jack Drury(2)
R. Colton (2), B. Skjei (3)
xG 0.12backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
0–4 NSH2nd 16:36+4.798%
Ryan O'Reilly(6)PP
J. Marchessault (2), F. Forsberg (9)
xG 0.09wristClip(opens nhl.com)
0–5 NSH2nd 17:29+1.4100%
Artturi Lehkonen(10)
M. Necas (9), N. MacKinnon (14)
xG 0.23tip-inClip(opens nhl.com)
1–5 NSH2nd 17:55+1.32%
3rd
Devon Toews(4)
S. Malinski (3), M. Necas (10)
xG 0.04wristClip(opens nhl.com)
2–5 NSH3rd 02:43+2.94%
Steven Stamkos(7)PP
R. O'Reilly (6), R. Josi (11)
xG 0.16wristClip(opens nhl.com)
2–6 NSH3rd 10:24+0.6100%

Shots

Shooters

COL2.39 xG35 unblocked · 10 blocked35 unblocked · 10 blocked

NSH3.57 xG48 unblocked · 13 blocked48 unblocked · 13 blocked

Goal, taller = higher xGSavedMissedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

COLNSH2Goals62.39xG3.5721Shots3535Unblocked4845Attempts614High danger80/4Power play4/722Faceoffs3815Hits1813Blocks103Takeaways47Giveaways1321PIM15

Skaters

Player

Player
8C. MakarCale MakarD	23:16	0	0	0	1	4	0.09	−0.09	0	1	0	0	—	0	-1
27B. KulakBrett KulakD	22:42	0	0	0	1	1	0.04	−0.04	0	3	1	0	—	0	-2
7D. ToewsDevon ToewsD	20:06	1	0	1	1	2	0.06	+0.94	0	1	1	0	—	0	+1
29N. MacKinnonNathan MacKinnonC	19:49	0	1	1	2	6	0.16	−0.16	1	0	0	0	35%	0	0
70S. MalinskiSam MalinskiD	19:44	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	2	0	0	—	0	0
88M. NecasMartin NecasC	19:07	0	2	2	0	2	0.08	−0.08	2	0	0	1	0%	2	+1
62A. LehkonenArtturi LehkonenL	18:32	1	0	1	5	5	0.76	+0.24	0	1	0	0	0%	0	0
13T. HughesT.J. HughesR	17:18	0	0	0	1	3	0.18	−0.18	2	1	0	1	50%	0	-1
91N. KadriNazem KadriC	16:40	0	0	0	3	4	0.13	−0.13	2	0	0	0	50%	2	0
11B. NelsonBrock NelsonC	16:31	0	0	0	2	5	0.42	−0.42	0	0	0	2	29%	2	+1
71J. SchwartzJaden SchwartzL	15:13	0	0	0	2	3	0.11	−0.11	0	0	0	0	—	0	-1
92G. LandeskogGabriel LandeskogL	14:05	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	4	1	0	0	100%	0	0
42J. MansonJosh MansonD	13:45	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	−0.07	2	0	0	1	—	0	+1
84B. BurnsBrent BurnsD	12:48	0	0	0	1	2	0.01	−0.01	0	0	0	1	—	4	+1
17P. KellyParker KellyC	12:35	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	−0.02	0	1	0	0	44%	7	0
25L. O'ConnorLogan O'ConnorR	11:46	0	0	0	1	2	0.06	−0.06	0	0	1	0	0%	2	0
9F. SvechkovFedor SvechkovC	10:53	0	0	0	0	1	0.11	−0.11	1	0	0	1	33%	0	-1
16T. MakarTaylor MakarL	5:02	0	0	0	1	2	0.09	−0.09	1	0	0	0	—	0	0
COL total		2	4	6	21	45	2.39	−0.39	15	11	3	7	37%	19

Pony score

Incredible9.0+Great7.5+Good6.0+Average4.0+Below avg2.5+HorribleMethod

Forwards

Lehkonen7.5

Necas6.6

MacKinnon6.1

Landeskog3.9

Makar3.9

Hughes3.3

O'Connor3.3

Kelly2.9

Svechkov2.7

Schwartz2.4

Nelson1.7

Kadri1.4

Defence

Toews7.0

Malinski6.7

Kulak4.7

Manson4.1

Makar3.6

Burns1.4

Goalie

Wedgewood2.6

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Lehkonen·MacKinnon·Necas	11:00	16	13	11	54.2%	6	7	1	1	0.81	0.35	69.9%	+0.46	0	2	0%
Schwartz·Svechkov·Hughes	6:14	8	5	10	33.3%	1	9	0	1	0.29	0.80	26.5%	−0.51	1	1	50%
Landeskog·Nelson·Kadri	5:48	9	2	7	22.2%	1	1	0	0	0.10	0.08	56.8%	+0.02	0	2	0%
Makar·Kelly·O'Connor	2:48	5	1	2	33.3%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.31	0.0%	−0.31	1	0	100%
Occasional · 14 groups
Landeskog·Nelson·Hughes	1:45	3	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.01	0.0%	−0.01	1	0	100%
Schwartz·Kelly·Hughes	1:32	4	1	1	50.0%	1	1	0	0	0.00	0.02	12.5%	−0.02	0	0	—
Lehkonen·Svechkov·Necas	1:03	3	0	3	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.08	0.0%	−0.08	0	0	—
Landeskog·MacKinnon·Necas	1:00	4	2	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.03	0.00	100.0%	+0.03	0	0	—
Schwartz·Svechkov·Kadri	0:59	1	0	3	0.0%	0	2	0	0	0.00	0.33	0.0%	−0.33	0	0	—
Nelson·MacKinnon·Necas	0:58	1	2	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.04	0.00	100.0%	+0.04	1	0	100%
Kelly·Hughes·O'Connor	0:53	1	1	2	33.3%	1	0	0	0	0.11	0.16	40.4%	−0.05	0	0	—
Schwartz·Kelly·Kadri	0:48	1	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.02	0.00	100.0%	+0.02	0	0	—
Kelly·Kadri·O'Connor	0:45	2	1	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.01	0.00	100.0%	+0.01	1	0	100%
Nelson·Kadri·Hughes	0:45	1	2	0	100.0%	2	0	0	0	0.04	0.00	100.0%	+0.04	0	0	—
Landeskog·Kadri·O'Connor	0:44	1	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	1	0%
Schwartz·Kadri·Hughes	0:42	1	0	2	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.02	0.0%	−0.02	0	0	—
Schwartz·Kelly·O'Connor	0:33	2	1	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.02	0.00	100.0%	+0.02	0	1	0%
Landeskog·Kelly·Kadri	0:30	1	1	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.04	0.00	100.0%	+0.04	0	0	—
Other 31 brief groups	4:55		5	1	83.3%	3	0	0	0	0.34	0.00	100.0%	+0.34
COL 5v5	43:42		38	43	46.9%	18	24	1	2	1.86	2.17	46.1%	−0.31

Goalies

Scott Wedgewood

COL · 60:00

Saves: 29/35
SV%: .829
GAA: 6.00
xGA: 3.57
GSAx: −2.43

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	23/25	.920	2.20	+0.20
Power play	6/10	.600	1.36	−2.64
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	5/7	.714	1.65	−0.35

Justus Annunen

NSH · 60:00

Saves: 19/21
SV%: .905
GAA: 2.00
xGA: 2.39
GSAx: +0.39

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	17/19	.895	1.90	−0.10
Power play	1/1	1.000	0.11	+0.11
Shorthanded	1/1	1.000	0.38	+0.38
High danger	2/3	.667	0.82	−0.18

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Colorado Avalanche

Minutes

23:16C. Makar
22:42Kulak
20:06Toews
19:44Malinski
13:45Manson
12:48Burns

19:49MacKinnon
19:07Necas
18:32Lehkonen
17:18Hughes
16:40Kadri
16:31Nelson
15:13Schwartz
14:05Landeskog
12:35Kelly
11:46O'Connor
10:53Svechkov
5:02T. Makar

Matchups

Full game

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareCOLNSHGoalHard matchEdge bars = skater 5v5 total

Faceoffs

Both teams · pick a taker to focus

22–3837%

D 25%5–15N 50%9–9O 36%8–14 2 won into a shot

NSH attacks515COL DZ 25% NSH OZ

Neutral99COL NZ 50% NSH NZ

COL attacks814COL OZ 36% NSH DZ

38–2263%

D 64%14–8N 50%9–9O 75%15–5 4 won into a shot

Bead = draw, winner’s colourClockwise from the top in game order Shot attempt within 10sHover a zone for its draws · click a taker to focus

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

C. MakarD0 O5
ToewsD2 O3
MansonD3 O2
BurnsD3 O1
KulakD6 O1
MalinskiD7 O1
HughesD1 O4
SchwartzD2 O4
KadriD3 O4
MacKinnonD2 O3
T. MakarD0 O1
NelsonD4 O3
NecasD3 O2
LandeskogD3 O1
SvechkovD3 O1
KellyD4 O1
LehkonenD5 O1
O'ConnorD8 O2

Shift starts · darker = later period