OTT @ BUF 2–1 · 2026-11-04

OttawaOTTSenators2

FinalNov 42026-11-04

Team	1	2	3	SOG
OTT	0	0	2	30
BUF	0	1	0	25

KeyBank Center

BuffaloBUFSabres1

CallNo lean · 57% BUF

Star 1S. Ersson.960 SV%
Star 2M. Amadio1G 0A
Star 3C. Ellis.933 SV%

Closing linesDraftKings

+110Moneyline-130+1.5 -230Puck line-1.5 +190O -122Total 6.5U +102+150RegulationTie +330 +125-1051st period-125+1901st · 3-wayTie +190 +160

Season odds

63%64%+1.2Playoffs57%47%−10.31.5%1.5%±0.0Cup1.5%1.0%−0.5

Story

– / 7

Result OTT 2–1Call No lean · BUF 57%Market BUF 55%xG 2.78–1.96 · deserved OTT 65%Swing Amadio +45 3rd 16:51Method

Goals and penalties with BUF win probability
Time	Event	BUF win before	BUF win after
2nd 6:04	BUF penalty · R. Dahlin · holding · 2 min
2nd 14:00	Goal BUF · P. Krebs	55%	77%
2nd 16:25	BUF penalty · O. Power · holding · 2 min
3rd 1:47	OTT penalty · N. Matinpalo · interference · 2 min
3rd 8:39	OTT penalty · J. Spence · boarding · 2 min
3rd 11:33	Goal OTT · S. Pinto	87%	54%
3rd 16:51	Goal OTT · M. Amadio	53%	8%

On ice · final horn

OTT5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
12S. PintoC	1:42	21:41	26	1	0	1	3	6	0	1	1	9-8
18T. StützleC	1:40	23:03	25	0	1	1	5	8	0	0	0	10-1
19D. BathersonR	1:45	20:13	22	0	0	0	2	3	0	2	0	–
10J. SpenceD	2:15	21:57	28	0	0	0	0	1	2	1	3	–
72T. ChabotD	2:15	24:18	28	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	4	–
30S. ErssonG		59:12	SA25GA1SV%.960xGA1.96GSAx+0.96

BUF6 skaters · net empty

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	A	P	SOG	Att	Hit	Blk	FO
72T. ThompsonC	1:35	19:34	22	1	1	2	3	0	0	3-6
86N. OstlundC	1:43	21:27	21	0	0	4	4	0	1	2-8
22J. QuinnR	1:40	20:32	21	0	0	1	7	1	1	–
91J. DoanR	1:41	16:45	21	0	0	3	6	2	0	–
8O. ZellwegerD	1:31	23:48	25	0	0	1	4	0	1	–
23M. SamuelssonD	1:39	24:57	26	0	0	0	2	1	5	–

Goals

2nd
Peyton Krebs(1)
T. Thompson (8), Z. Benson (12)
xG 0.13deflectedClip(opens nhl.com)
0–1 BUF2nd 14:00+21.977%
3rd
Shane Pinto(6)
P. Tomasino (2), T. Chabot (6)
xG 0.17backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
1–1 Tied3rd 11:33+33.346%
Michael Amadio(5)
T. Stützle (13), F. Zetterlund (6)
xG 0.13snapClip(opens nhl.com)
2–1 OTT3rd 16:51+45.292%

Shots

Shooters

OTT2.78 xG43 unblocked · 12 blocked43 unblocked · 12 blocked

BUF1.96 xG33 unblocked · 17 blocked33 unblocked · 17 blocked

Goal, taller = higher xGSavedMissedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

OTTBUF2Goals12.78xG1.9630Shots2543Unblocked3355Attempts505High danger10/2Power play0/237Faceoffs1623Hits2417Blocks122Takeaways520Giveaways124PIM4

Skaters

Player

Player
85J. SandersonJake SandersonD	25:32	0	0	0	1	3	0.00	−0.00	0	1	0	0	—	0	0
72T. ChabotThomas ChabotD	24:18	0	1	1	1	3	0.01	−0.01	0	4	0	2	—	0	+1
18T. StützleTim StützleC	23:03	0	1	1	5	8	0.15	−0.15	0	0	1	1	91%	0	0
10J. SpenceJordan SpenceD	21:57	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	−0.01	1	3	0	3	—	2	+1
12S. PintoShane PintoC	21:41	1	0	1	3	6	0.30	+0.70	1	1	0	1	53%	0	+1
2A. ZubArtem ZubD	20:58	0	0	0	1	2	0.01	−0.01	1	3	0	2	—	0	0
19D. BathersonDrake BathersonR	20:13	0	0	0	2	3	0.33	−0.33	2	0	0	2	—	0	+1
20F. ZetterlundFabian ZetterlundL	16:19	0	1	1	2	5	0.43	−0.43	2	1	0	0	—	0	0
28C. GirouxClaude GirouxR	16:17	0	0	0	3	5	0.46	−0.46	0	0	0	2	100%	0	0
24D. CozensDylan CozensC	16:11	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	1	1	0	3	91%	0	0
22M. AmadioMichael AmadioR	15:55	1	0	1	2	3	0.34	+0.66	3	0	0	0	—	0	0
62P. TomasinoPhilip TomasinoR	14:44	0	1	1	4	4	0.34	−0.34	0	0	0	1	0%	0	+1
21N. CousinsNick CousinsC	13:19	0	0	0	2	3	0.20	−0.20	3	0	0	0	—	0	0
26C. YakemchukCarter YakemchukD	12:57	0	0	0	2	3	0.08	−0.08	0	1	1	0	—	0	0
33N. MatinpaloNikolas MatinpaloD	12:15	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	0	1	0	0	—	2	0
34S. HallidayStephen HallidayC	10:28	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	−0.03	3	0	0	2	38%	0	0
79S. BlaisSammy BlaisL	5:54	0	0	0	1	1	0.08	−0.08	4	0	0	0	—	0	0
42H. HodgsonHayden HodgsonR	4:47	0	0	0	1	2	0.01	−0.01	2	0	0	1	—	0	0
OTT total		2	4	6	30	55	2.78	−0.78	23	16	2	20	70%	4

Pony score

Incredible9.0+Great7.5+Good6.0+Average4.0+Below avg2.5+HorribleMethod

Forwards

Stützle7.1

Pinto7.0

Tomasino6.6

Amadio6.5

Zetterlund5.5

Blais5.4

Hodgson5.3

Batherson5.2

Cozens5.2

Cousins4.9

Giroux4.6

Halliday4.4

Defence

Chabot7.5

Zub5.7

Spence5.5

Yakemchuk5.3

Sanderson4.2

Matinpalo3.3

Goalie

Ersson6.2

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Pinto·Batherson·Tomasino	11:38	19	11	12	47.8%	7	8	1	0	0.64	0.46	58.4%	+0.18	3	1	75%
Cozens·Amadio·Giroux	9:48	14	10	12	45.5%	5	7	0	0	0.50	0.60	45.3%	−0.10	2	3	40%
Zetterlund·Stützle·Cousins	9:34	17	11	5	68.8%	6	3	0	0	0.41	0.04	91.0%	+0.37	2	0	100%
Blais·Halliday·Hodgson	3:54	10	3	1	75.0%	2	1	0	0	0.10	0.00	95.9%	+0.09	5	1	83%
Occasional · 9 groups
Zetterlund·Stützle·Amadio	1:20	5	1	4	20.0%	1	1	1	1	0.13	0.17	43.4%	−0.04	0	0	—
Pinto·Amadio·Giroux	0:55	2	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.01	0.00	100.0%	+0.01	0	0	—
Zetterlund·Pinto·Stützle	0:53	4	1	1	50.0%	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	100.0%	+0.00	0	2	0%
Zetterlund·Blais·Stützle	0:49	3	2	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.18	0.00	100.0%	+0.18	0	0	—
Cozens·Halliday·Giroux	0:45	2	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.01	0.0%	−0.01	0	0	—
Halliday·Batherson·Tomasino	0:44	1	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Cozens·Batherson·Tomasino	0:41	4	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Cozens·Halliday·Amadio	0:40	1	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.03	0.00	100.0%	+0.03	0	0	—
Cozens·Halliday·Batherson	0:39	1	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	1	0	100%
Other 37 brief groups	7:17		3	3	50.0%	2	1	0	0	0.07	0.25	20.9%	−0.18
OTT 5v5	49:37		44	41	51.8%	25	22	2	1	2.06	1.53	57.5%	+0.54

Goalies

Samuel Ersson

OTT · 59:12

Saves: 24/25
SV%: .960
GAA: 1.01
xGA: 1.96
GSAx: +0.96

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	21/22	.955	1.53	+0.53
Power play	2/2	1.000	0.38	+0.38
Shorthanded	1/1	1.000	0.05	+0.05
High danger	1/1	1.000	0.17	+0.17

Colten Ellis

BUF · 58:25

Saves: 28/30
SV%: .933
GAA: 2.05
xGA: 2.78
GSAx: +0.78

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	23/25	.920	2.06	+0.06
Power play	5/5	1.000	0.72	+0.72
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	3/4	.750	0.91	−0.09

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Ottawa Senators

Minutes

25:32Sanderson
24:18Chabot
21:57Spence
20:58Zub
12:57Yakemchuk
12:15Matinpalo

23:03Stützle
21:41Pinto
20:13Batherson
16:19Zetterlund
16:17Giroux
16:11Cozens
15:55Amadio
14:44Tomasino
13:19Cousins
10:28Halliday
5:54Blais
4:47Hodgson

Matchups

Full game

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareOTTBUFGoalHard matchEdge bars = skater 5v5 total

Faceoffs

Both teams · pick a taker to focus

37–1670%

D 76%13–4N 72%13–5O 61%11–7 9 won into a shot

BUF attacks134OTT DZ 76% BUF OZ

Neutral135OTT NZ 72% BUF NZ

OTT attacks117OTT OZ 61% BUF DZ

16–3730%

D 39%7–11N 28%5–13O 24%4–13 1 won into a shot

Bead = draw, winner’s colourClockwise from the top in game order Shot attempt within 10sHover a zone for its draws · click a taker to focus

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

YakemchukD0 O4
MatinpaloD1 O3
ChabotD5 O2
SpenceD4 O1
SandersonD5 O1
ZubD5 O1
HallidayD1 O6
BathersonD1 O5
BlaisD1 O4
HodgsonD1 O4
TomasinoD1 O3
CousinsD1 O2
ZetterlundD2 O3
CozensD4 O5
PintoD4 O4
GirouxD5 O4
AmadioD3 O2
StützleD4 O2

Shift starts · darker = later period