FLA @ BUF 3–5 · 2026-10-12

FloridaFLAPanthers3

FinalOct 122026-10-12

Team	1	2	3	SOG
FLA	1	2	0	23
BUF	2	1	2	32

KeyBank Center

BuffaloBUFSabres5

CallNo lean · 57% BUF

Star 1N. Ostlund1G 0A
Star 2R. McLeod1G 0A
Star 3J. Quinn0G 2A

Closing linesDraftKings

-105Moneyline-115+1.5 -270Puck line-1.5 +220O -130Total 5.5U +110+140RegulationTie +300 +145-1101st period-120+1801st · 3-wayTie +173 +180

Season oddsafter: next morning's run

44%…Playoffs50%…0.9%…Cup1.4%…

Story

– / 17

Result BUF 5–3Call No lean · BUF 57%Market BUF 51%xG 3.34–3.61 · deserved BUF 54%Swing Ostlund +30 3rd 7:15Method

Goals and penalties with BUF win probability
Time	Event	BUF win before	BUF win after
1st 5:58	Goal BUF · J. Doan	57%	72%
1st 11:00	Goal FLA · A. Lundell	73%	56%
1st 15:15	FLA penalty · D. Kulikov · holding · 2 min
1st 15:55	Goal BUF · R. Dahlin (PP)	56%	74%
1st 17:01	FLA penalty · R. Gudas · delaying game puck over glass · 2 min
2nd 3:26	FLA penalty · A. Ekblad · interference · 2 min
2nd 5:55	BUF penalty · O. Zellweger · tripping · 2 min
2nd 6:26	Goal FLA · S. Reinhart (PP)	75%	55%
2nd 11:25	Goal BUF · R. McLeod	55%	76%
2nd 12:48	BUF penalty · B. Malenstyn · holding · 2 min
2nd 13:41	Goal FLA · S. Reinhart (PP)	77%	55%
3rd 6:15	FLA penalty · A. Ekblad · holding the stick · 2 min
3rd 7:15	Goal BUF · N. Ostlund (PP)	54%	83%
3rd 13:20	Goal BUF · T. Thompson	89%	98%
3rd 13:39	BUF penalty · J. Norris · slashing · 2 min
3rd 16:26	FLA penalty · E. Luostarinen · hooking · 2 min
3rd 18:08	BUF penalty · J. Norris · high sticking · 2 min

On ice · final horn

FLA6 skaters · net empty

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	Hit	Blk	FO
13S. ReinhartC	1:52	20:27	21	2	0	2	2	4	2	0	7-2
15A. LundellC	0:31	14:51	23	1	0	1	3	3	3	0	4-6
20L. EllerC	0:29	12:36	17	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	4-5
19M. TkachukL	1:52	18:25	22	0	1	1	2	6	1	0	–
95S. VilmanisL	0:26	12:21	17	0	1	1	0	2	0	1	–
3S. JonesD	1:52	23:55	27	0	2	2	4	10	2	0	–

BUF4 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
71R. McLeodC	1:00	16:04	21	1	0	1	2	3	0	0	1	8-8
6Z. BensonL	1:00	19:40	21	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	1	1-1
25O. PowerD	0:59	26:31	29	0	2	2	1	2	0	0	0	–
46L. CrevierD	1:00	15:03	21	0	0	0	2	3	0	3	2	–
1U. LuukkonenG		33:34	SA14GA1SV%.929xGA1.79GSAx+0.79

Goals

1st
Josh Doan(1)
P. Krebs (1)
xG 0.07wristClip(opens nhl.com)
0–1 BUF1st 05:58+15.972%
Anton Lundell(1)
A. Ekblad (1), S. Vilmanis (1)
xG 0.12wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–1 Tied1st 11:00+16.644%
Rasmus Dahlin(1)PP
J. Quinn (1), T. Thompson (1)
xG 0.13slapClip(opens nhl.com)
1–2 BUF1st 15:55+17.574%
2nd
Sam Reinhart(1)PP
S. Jones (1), M. Tkachuk (1)
xG 0.80pokeClip(opens nhl.com)
2–2 Tied2nd 06:26+19.945%
Ryan McLeod(1)
O. Zellweger (1), O. Power (1)
xG 0.19wristClip(opens nhl.com)
2–3 BUF2nd 11:25+21.476%
Sam Reinhart(2)PP
B. Tkachuk (1), S. Jones (2)
xG 0.23wristClip(opens nhl.com)
3–3 Tied2nd 13:41+22.245%
3rd
Noah Ostlund(1)PP
Z. Benson (1), J. Quinn (2)
xG 0.15wristClip(opens nhl.com)
3–4 BUF3rd 07:15+29.683%
Tage Thompson(1)
O. Power (2), P. Krebs (2)
xG 0.15wristClip(opens nhl.com)
3–5 BUF3rd 13:20+9.498%

Shots

FLA3.34 xG46 unblocked · 17 blocked46 unblocked · 17 blocked

BUF3.61 xG43 unblocked · 6 blocked43 unblocked · 6 blocked

Goal, taller = higher xGSavedMissedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

FLABUF3Goals53.34xG3.6123Shots3246Unblocked4363Attempts495High danger102/4Power play2/530Faceoffs2742Hits146Blocks174Takeaways215Giveaways1410PIM8

Skaters

Player

Player
42G. ForslingGustav ForslingD	24:10	0	0	0	2	8	0.16	−0.16	0	0	1	1	—	0	-1
3S. JonesSeth JonesD	23:55	0	2	2	4	10	0.37	−0.37	2	0	0	1	—	0	-1
13S. ReinhartSam ReinhartC	20:27	2	0	2	2	4	1.15	+0.85	2	0	1	0	78%	0	-1
5A. EkbladAaron EkbladD	20:25	0	1	1	3	7	0.25	−0.25	3	0	0	2	—	4	-1
77N. MikkolaNiko MikkolaD	19:48	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	−0.01	5	0	0	3	—	0	-1
19M. TkachukMatthew TkachukL	18:25	0	1	1	2	6	0.03	−0.03	1	0	1	0	—	0	-2
23C. VerhaegheCarter VerhaegheC	17:37	0	0	0	0	3	0.10	−0.10	0	0	0	0	50%	0	-1
27E. LuostarinenEetu LuostarinenC	16:37	0	0	0	2	5	0.11	−0.11	4	1	0	1	0%	2	+1
8B. TkachukBrady TkachukL	16:32	0	1	1	3	6	0.52	−0.52	7	0	0	0	50%	0	-2
9S. BennettSam BennettC	15:34	0	0	0	1	2	0.04	−0.04	2	0	0	1	71%	0	-2
18S. LaffertySam LaffertyC	14:54	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	2	1	0	1	0%	0	-1
15A. LundellAnton LundellC	14:51	1	0	1	3	3	0.27	+0.73	3	0	0	1	40%	0	+1
7D. KulikovDmitry KulikovD	14:32	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	4	0	0	0	—	2	0
20L. EllerLars EllerC	12:36	0	0	0	0	3	0.14	−0.14	1	0	0	0	44%	0	0
6R. GudasRadko GudasD	12:27	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	−0.01	0	1	1	2	—	2	0
95S. VilmanisSandis VilmanisL	12:21	0	1	1	0	2	0.00	0.00	0	1	0	2	—	0	+1
21G. HathawayGarnet HathawayR	10:05	0	0	0	1	1	0.18	−0.18	5	1	0	0	—	0	0
14B. ImamaBokondji ImamaL	8:56	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1	0	0	0	—	0	0
FLA total		3	6	9	23	63	3.34	−0.34	42	5	4	15	53%	10

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Reinhart+1.44

Tkachuk+0.50

Lundell+0.43

Vilmanis+0.12

Tkachuk−0.06

Hathaway−0.14

Imama−0.16

Verhaeghe−0.24

Eller−0.29

Bennett−0.31

Lafferty−0.45

Luostarinen−0.49

Defence

Jones+0.53

Ekblad−0.07

Mikkola−0.16

Forsling−0.21

Kulikov−0.39

Gudas−0.40

Goalie

Schmid−1.20

Markstrom−0.52

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Reinhart·Lafferty·Verhaeghe	11:31	15	5	9	35.7%	0	5	0	1	0.06	1.01	5.2%	−0.96	4	2	67%
Tkachuk·Tkachuk·Bennett	10:59	18	13	9	59.1%	4	6	0	2	0.14	0.46	23.6%	−0.32	2	2	50%
Vilmanis·Lundell·Luostarinen	9:34	15	11	7	61.1%	5	4	1	0	0.46	0.28	62.0%	+0.18	3	1	75%
Imama·Eller·Hathaway	6:58	11	4	5	44.4%	0	3	0	0	0.14	0.17	45.7%	−0.03	1	1	50%
Occasional · 6 groups
Tkachuk·Bennett·Lafferty	1:00	1	0	2	0.0%	0	2	0	0	0.00	0.03	0.0%	−0.03	0	0	—
Imama·Tkachuk·Bennett	0:47	3	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.04	0.0%	−0.04	0	0	—
Vilmanis·Eller·Luostarinen	0:41	3	5	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.09	0.00	100.0%	+0.09	0	0	—
Tkachuk·Reinhart·Verhaeghe	0:39	5	3	1	75.0%	1	1	0	0	0.09	0.20	31.0%	−0.11	0	0	—
Tkachuk·Bennett·Verhaeghe	0:33	5	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.02	0.0%	−0.02	0	0	—
Lafferty·Eller·Luostarinen	0:33	1	0	3	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.12	0.0%	−0.12	0	0	—
Other 29 brief groups	4:07		1	1	50.0%	1	1	0	0	0.18	0.00	97.8%	+0.17
FLA 5v5	47:22		42	39	51.9%	12	25	1	3	1.15	2.33	33.1%	−1.18

Goalies

Akira Schmid

FLA · 38:08

Saves: 18/21
SV%: .857
xGA: 1.79
GSAx: −1.21

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	13/15	.867	0.99	−1.01
Power play	5/6	.833	0.79	−0.21
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	1/4	.250	1.02	−1.98

Jacob Markstrom

FLA · 20:00

Saves: 9/11
SV%: .818
xGA: 1.47
GSAx: −0.53

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	9/10	.900	1.34	+0.34
Power play	0/1	.000	0.13	−0.87
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	2/2	1.000	0.66	+0.66

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

BUF · 33:34

Saves: 13/14
SV%: .929
xGA: 1.79
GSAx: +0.79

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	6/6	1.000	0.56	+0.56
Power play	7/8	.875	1.23	+0.23
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	3/4	.750	0.74	−0.26

Colten Ellis

BUF · 26:26

Saves: 7/9
SV%: .778
xGA: 1.55
GSAx: −0.45

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	5/6	.833	0.60	−0.40
Power play	1/2	.500	0.85	−0.15
Shorthanded	1/1	1.000	0.10	+0.10
High danger	0/1	.000	0.80	−0.20

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Florida Panthers

Minutes

24:10Forsling
23:55Jones
20:25Ekblad
19:48Mikkola
14:32Kulikov
12:27Gudas

20:27Reinhart
18:25M. Tkachuk
17:37Verhaeghe
16:37Luostarinen
16:32B. Tkachuk
15:34Bennett
14:54Lafferty
14:51Lundell
12:36Eller
12:21Vilmanis
10:05Hathaway
8:56Imama

Matchups

Full game

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareFLABUFGoalHard matchEdge bars = skater 5v5 total

Faceoffs

Both teams · pick a taker to focus

30–2753%

D 61%11–7N 35%6–11O 59%13–9 5 won into a shot

BUF attacks117FLA DZ 61% BUF OZ

Neutral611FLA NZ 35% BUF NZ

FLA attacks139FLA OZ 59% BUF DZ

27–3047%

D 41%9–13N 65%11–6O 39%7–11 4 won into a shot

Bead = draw, winner’s colourClockwise from the top in game order Shot attempt within 10sHover a zone for its draws · click a taker to focus

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

KulikovD1 O4
GudasD2 O3
JonesD4 O5
MikkolaD4 O2
ForslingD6 O0
EkbladD7 O0
VerhaegheD2 O6
M. TkachukD2 O6
B. TkachukD2 O6
ReinhartD2 O5
VilmanisD1 O3
LaffertyD2 O3
EllerD1 O1
ImamaD1 O1
LuostarinenD3 O3
HathawayD2 O1
BennettD2 O1
LundellD4 O3

Shift starts · darker = later period