BUF @ NSH 5–3 · 2026-01-20

Team	1	2	3	SOG
BUF	3	1	1	33
NSH	0	2	1	34

Story

– / 13

Result BUF 5–3Call No lean · NSH 57%xG 3.13–3.15 · deserved NSH 50%Swing Ostlund +19 1st 8:11Method

Goals and penalties with NSH win probability
Time	Event	NSH win before	NSH win after
1st 8:11	Goal BUF · N. Ostlund	57%	38%
1st 11:45	Goal BUF · N. Ostlund	37%	20%
1st 13:24	BUF penalty · J. Zucker · tripping · 2 min
1st 17:24	Goal BUF · K. Helenius	18%	8%
2nd 4:20	Goal BUF · T. Thompson	6%	2%
2nd 6:20	NSH penalty · L. Evangelista · tripping · 2 min
2nd 10:09	Goal NSH · R. O'Reilly	1%	4%
2nd 11:54	Goal NSH · F. Forsberg	4%	12%
2nd 19:43	BUF penalty · J. Greenway · holding · 2 min
3rd 9:30	Goal NSH · R. O'Reilly	3%	17%
3rd 18:14	Goal BUF · P. Krebs (EN)	4%	0%
OT 0:00	BUF penalty · M. Samuelsson · roughing · 2 min
OT 0:00	NSH penalty · R. O'Reilly · high sticking · 2 min

On ice · final horn

BUF5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
19P. KrebsC	0:58	12:31	22	1	1	2	2	2	0	2	0	2-8
72T. ThompsonC	0:58	13:33	20	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	7-4
89A. TuchR	0:58	15:44	23	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	3-4
4B. ByramD	0:58	23:59	30	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	–
23M. SamuelssonD	0:58	25:53	31	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	–
34A. LyonG		60:00	SA34GA3SV%.912xGA3.15GSAx+0.15

NSH6 skaters · net empty

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
90R. O'ReillyC	2:11	20:42	24	2	1	3	4	8	0	0	0	11-15
91S. StamkosC	1:17	18:06	21	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	2-2
9F. ForsbergL	2:07	19:38	23	1	2	3	7	17	0	1	1	1-0
77L. EvangelistaR	2:03	20:35	24	0	1	1	4	9	2	1	1	–
37N. BlankenburgD	0:30	18:15	24	0	0	0	2	4	0	3	2	–
59R. JosiD	1:50	28:24	29	0	0	0	4	11	0	0	1	–

Goals

1st
Noah Ostlund(1)
K. Helenius (1), R. Dahlin (1)
xG 0.12wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–0 BUF1st 08:11+19.362%
Noah Ostlund(2)
K. Helenius (2), O. Power (1)
xG 0.20backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
2–0 BUF1st 11:45+16.680%
Konsta Helenius(1)
P. Krebs (1)
xG 0.06wristClip(opens nhl.com)
3–0 BUF1st 17:24+10.392%
2nd
Tage Thompson(1)
A. Tuch (1), J. Doan (1)
xG 0.13snapClip(opens nhl.com)
4–0 BUF2nd 04:20+4.198%
Ryan O'Reilly(1)6v5
F. Forsberg (1), B. Skjei (1)
xG 0.11wristClip(opens nhl.com)
4–1 BUF2nd 10:09+3.24%
Filip Forsberg(1)
R. O'Reilly (1)
xG 0.01wristClip(opens nhl.com)
4–2 BUF2nd 11:54+8.312%
3rd
Ryan O'Reilly(2)
L. Evangelista (1), F. Forsberg (2)
xG 0.11wristClip(opens nhl.com)
4–3 BUF3rd 09:30+13.717%
Peyton Krebs(1)EN
M. Samuelsson (1)
xG 0.46wristClip(opens nhl.com)
5–3 BUF3rd 18:14+3.4100%

Shots

BUF3.13 xG39 unblocked · 8 blocked39 unblocked · 8 blocked

NSH3.15 xG63 unblocked · 20 blocked63 unblocked · 20 blocked

GoalSavedMissedBlockedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

BUFNSH5Goals33.13xG3.1533Shots3439Unblocked6347Attempts834High danger30/1Power play0/227Faceoffs3317Hits2720Blocks84Takeaways615Giveaways106PIM4

Skaters

Player

Player
26R. DahlinRasmus DahlinD	28:02	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0.00	5	3	0	1	—	0	+2
23M. SamuelssonMattias SamuelssonD	25:53	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	2	1	1	—	2	+2
4B. ByramBowen ByramD	23:59	0	0	0	2	4	0.18	−0.18	0	0	0	1	—	0	0
25O. PowerOwen PowerD	23:25	0	1	1	3	3	0.12	−0.12	0	3	0	1	—	0	0
71R. McLeodRyan McLeodC	19:30	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	−0.08	0	0	2	5	65%	0	-1
17J. ZuckerJason ZuckerL	17:32	0	0	0	5	6	0.56	−0.56	1	1	0	1	50%	2	-2
86N. OstlundNoah OstlundC	16:58	2	0	2	3	4	0.38	+1.62	0	1	0	1	14%	0	+1
22J. QuinnJack QuinnR	16:32	0	0	0	5	8	0.43	−0.43	0	1	0	1	—	0	-1
89A. TuchAlex TuchR	15:44	0	1	1	1	3	0.07	−0.07	0	0	1	0	43%	0	+1
6Z. BensonZach BensonL	15:32	0	0	0	2	2	0.09	−0.09	0	0	0	1	—	0	+3
94K. HeleniusKonsta HeleniusC	14:43	1	2	3	4	5	0.27	+0.73	2	1	0	1	50%	0	+2
72T. ThompsonTage ThompsonC	13:33	1	0	1	1	2	0.13	+0.87	0	0	0	0	64%	0	+1
91J. DoanJosh DoanR	12:57	0	1	1	1	2	0.04	−0.04	0	1	0	1	—	0	0
19P. KrebsPeyton KrebsC	12:31	1	1	2	2	2	0.50	+0.50	2	0	0	0	20%	0	+2
29B. MalenstynBeck MalenstynL	11:25	0	0	0	1	2	0.15	−0.15	5	2	0	0	33%	0	0
12J. GreenwayJordan GreenwayL	11:02	0	0	0	3	3	0.13	−0.13	2	0	0	0	0%	2	0
78J. BrysonJacob BrysonD	8:36	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	2	0	0	—	0	0
73Z. MetsaZach MetsaD	8:06	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	2	0	0	—	0	0
BUF total		5	8	13	33	47	3.13	+1.87	17	19	4	15	45%	6

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Helenius+1.69

Ostlund+1.13

Thompson+0.40

Krebs+0.29

Tuch+0.09

Doan−0.20

Malenstyn−0.21

Greenway−0.23

Quinn−0.27

Benson−0.30

Zucker−0.45

McLeod−0.46

Defence

Samuelsson+0.31

Power+0.11

Bryson+0.07

Dahlin+0.02

Metsa+0.01

Byram−0.21

Goalie

Lyon+0.17

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Zucker·McLeod·Quinn	12:10	19	12	13	48.0%	7	7	0	1	0.76	0.66	53.8%	+0.11	3	5	38%
Benson·Ostlund·Helenius	11:27	15	10	7	58.8%	8	4	2	0	0.70	0.29	70.5%	+0.41	3	0	100%
Thompson·Tuch·Doan	8:49	15	4	13	23.5%	4	8	1	0	0.19	0.38	32.9%	−0.19	7	1	88%
Greenway·Malenstyn·Krebs	8:27	15	6	13	31.6%	5	2	0	0	0.32	0.38	45.6%	−0.06	0	3	0%
Occasional · 10 groups
Zucker·Ostlund·Helenius	0:59	6	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.01	0.0%	−0.01	0	0	—
Ostlund·Tuch·Doan	0:58	2	1	4	20.0%	1	1	0	0	0.04	0.21	15.0%	−0.17	0	0	—
Zucker·Malenstyn·McLeod	0:44	3	1	3	25.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.04	0.0%	−0.04	0	0	—
Zucker·Krebs·Quinn	0:41	2	1	1	50.0%	1	0	0	0	0.08	0.00	100.0%	+0.08	1	0	100%
Benson·McLeod·Helenius	0:40	2	0	2	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Greenway·Ostlund·Helenius	0:39	2	2	0	100.0%	2	0	0	0	0.11	0.00	100.0%	+0.11	1	0	100%
Krebs·Thompson·Doan	0:36	1	2	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.04	0.00	100.0%	+0.04	0	0	—
Thompson·Quinn·Doan	0:35	1	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Benson·McLeod·Quinn	0:30	1	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.04	0.0%	−0.04	0	0	—
Krebs·Thompson·Tuch	0:30	2	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
BUF 5v5	52:03		44	63	41.1%	31	25	4	2	2.42	2.01	54.7%	+0.42

Goalies

Alex Lyon

BUF · 60:00

Saves: 31/34
SV%: .912
xGA: 3.15
GSAx: +0.15

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	27/30	.900	2.63	−0.37
Power play	4/4	1.000	0.52	+0.52
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	2/2	1.000	0.53	+0.53

Justus Annunen

NSH · 34:09

Saves: 13/13
SV%: 1.000
xGA: 1.12
GSAx: +1.12

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	12/12	1.000	0.95	+0.95
Power play	1/1	1.000	0.16	+0.16
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	1/1	1.000	0.16	+0.16

Juuse Saros

NSH · 23:54

Saves: 15/19
SV%: .789
xGA: 1.55
GSAx: −2.45

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	15/19	.789	1.47	−2.53
Power play	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.08	+0.08
High danger	1/2	.500	0.35	−0.65

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Buffalo Sabres

Minutes

28:02Dahlin
25:53Samuelsson
23:59Byram
23:25Power
8:36Bryson
8:06Metsa

19:30McLeod
17:32Zucker
16:58Ostlund
16:32Quinn
15:44Tuch
15:32Benson
14:43Helenius
13:33Thompson
12:57Doan
12:31Krebs
11:25Malenstyn
11:02Greenway

Matchups

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareBUFNSH

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

BrysonD1 O1
DahlinD2 O2
PowerD3 O3
MetsaD1 O1
SamuelssonD4 O1
ByramD7 O1
DoanD1 O8
ThompsonD2 O8
OstlundD1 O5
BensonD0 O3
HeleniusD1 O4
TuchD5 O7
ZuckerD5 O4
GreenwayD3 O1
QuinnD5 O3
MalenstynD4 O0
KrebsD5 O1
McLeodD8 O3

Shift starts · darker = later period