TBL @ CBJ 1–0 · 2026-11-12

Tampa BayTBLLightning1

Live · P1 14:28Nov 122026-11-12

Team	1	2	3	SOG
TBL	1	0	0	7
CBJ	0	0	0	6

Nationwide Arena

ColumbusCBJBlue Jackets0

CallTBL53%mkt 49%-105

Closing linesDraftKings

-105Moneyline-115-1.5 +210Puck line+1.5 -258O -105Total 6.5U -115+140RegulationTie +310 +135

Season oddsafter: next morning's run

98%…Playoffs13%…13%…Cup0.0%…

Story

– / 1

LiveCall TBL 53%Market CBJ 51%xG 0.49–0.20 · deserved TBL 62%Swing Hagel +16 1st 2:57Method

Goals and penalties with CBJ win probability
Time	Event	CBJ win before	CBJ win after
1st 2:57	Goal TBL · B. Hagel	47%	31%

On ice · now

Line-up as of 1st 3:47 · live shifts trail the play

TBL4 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
28Z. GirgensonsC	0:50	2:29	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2-0
49S. SabourinR	0:33	1:50	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	–
95I. MikheyevR	0:50	1:17	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	–
77V. HedmanD	0:50	1:35	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	–
35D. HildebyG		3:47	SA6GA0SV%1.000xGA0.20GSAx+0.20

CBJ5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
18S. LorentzC	0:50	0:50	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	–
92J. WilliamsC	0:50	0:50	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-1
94R. LombergL	0:50	0:50	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	–
8Z. WerenskiD	1:11	1:38	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	–
78D. SeversonD	1:19	1:46	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	–
73J. GreavesG		3:47	SA7GA1SV%.857xGA0.49GSAx−0.51

Goals

1st
Brandon Hagel(12)
C. D'Astous (10), N. Kucherov (19)
xG 0.19tip-in
1–0 TBL1st 02:57+15.869%

Shots

Shooters

TBL0.49 xG7 unblocked · 1 blocked7 unblocked · 1 blocked

CBJ0.20 xG7 unblocked · 1 blocked7 unblocked · 1 blocked

Goal, taller = higher xGSavedMissedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

TBLCBJ1Goals00.49xG0.207Shots67Unblocked78Attempts82High danger00/0Power play0/06Faceoffs13Hits11Blocks10Takeaways03Giveaways00PIM0

Skaters

Player

Player
28Z. GirgensonsZemgus GirgensonsC	2:29	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	100%	0
49S. SabourinScott SabourinR	1:55	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	1	—	0
24M. CrozierMax CrozierD	1:45	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	1	—	0
77V. HedmanVictor HedmanD	1:35	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	—	0
90J. MoserJ.J. MoserD	1:32	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	—	0
95I. MikheyevIlya MikheyevR	1:23	0	0	0	1	1	0.18	−0.18	0	0	—	0
25J. VielJeffrey VielL	1:17	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	—	0
78E. LillebergEmil LillebergD	1:16	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	—	0
29P. HolmbergPontus HolmbergR	0:44	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	0	0	—	0
93G. GoncalvesGage GoncalvesC	0:43	0	0	0	1	1	0.03	−0.03	2	0	—	0
94C. GeekieConor GeekieC	0:43	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	100%	0
59J. GuentzelJake GuentzelC	0:39	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	67%	+1
23S. O'ReillySam O'ReillyR	0:39	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1	0	100%	0
51C. D'AstousCharle-Edouard D'AstousD	0:31	0	1	1	1	1	0.04	−0.04	0	0	—	+1
74J. CarlsonJohn CarlsonD	0:30	0	0	0	1	1	0.00	−0.00	0	0	—	+1
86N. KucherovNikita KucherovR	0:29	0	1	1	1	1	0.02	−0.02	0	0	—	+1
38B. HagelBrandon HagelL	0:28	1	0	1	2	2	0.22	+0.78	0	0	—	+1
27R. McDonaghRyan McDonaghD	0:27	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	1	—	0
TBL total		1	2	3	7	8	0.49	+0.51	3	3	86%

Pony score

Incredible9.0+Great7.5+Good6.0+Average4.0+Below avg2.5+HorribleMethod

Forwards

Hagel7.8

Kucherov6.1

Guentzel5.7

Mikheyev5.6

Goncalves5.6

O'Reilly5.6

Geekie5.6

Holmberg5.6

Viel5.5

Girgensons5.4

Sabourin5.4

Defence

D'Astous7.5

Carlson5.6

McDonagh5.3

Lilleberg5.1

Crozier5.1

Moser5.0

Hedman5.0

Goalie

Hildeby5.1

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Viel·Girgensons·Sabourin	1:06	1	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.02	0.0%	−0.02	0	0	—
Girgensons·Holmberg·Mikheyev	0:44	2	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Goncalves·Geekie·O'Reilly	0:39	1	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.01	0.0%	−0.01	1	0	100%
Girgensons·Sabourin·Mikheyev	0:32	1	0	2	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.08	0.0%	−0.08	0	0	—
Occasional · 1 group
Hagel·Guentzel·Kucherov	0:28	1	2	2	50.0%	2	1	1	0	0.23	0.02	93.1%	+0.21	0	0	—
Other 3 brief groups	0:17		1	1	50.0%	1	1	0	0	0.00	0.04	6.5%	−0.04
TBL 5v5	3:46		4	7	36.4%	3	5	1	0	0.23	0.17	57.3%	+0.06

Goalies

Dennis Hildeby

TBL · 5:32

Saves: 6/6
SV%: 1.000
GAA: 0.00
xGA: 0.20
GSAx: +0.20

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	6/6	1.000	0.20	+0.20
Power play	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	0/0	—	0.00	0.00

Jet Greaves

CBJ · 5:32

Saves: 6/7
SV%: .857
GAA: 10.84
xGA: 0.49
GSAx: −0.51

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	6/7	.857	0.49	−0.51
Power play	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	1/2	.500	0.37	−0.63

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Tampa Bay Lightning

Minutes

1:45Crozier
1:35Hedman
1:32Moser
1:16Lilleberg
0:31D'Astous
0:30Carlson
0:27McDonagh

2:29Girgensons
1:55Sabourin
1:23Mikheyev
1:17Viel
0:44Holmberg
0:43Goncalves
0:43Geekie
0:39Guentzel
0:39O'Reilly
0:29Kucherov
0:28Hagel

Matchups

Now

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareTBLCBJGoalHard matchEdge bars = skater 5v5 total

Faceoffs

Both teams · pick a taker to focus

6–186%

D 50%1–1N 100%2–0O 100%3–0 2 won into a shot

CBJ attacks11TBL DZ 50% CBJ OZ

Neutral20TBL NZ 100% CBJ NZ

TBL attacks30TBL OZ 100% CBJ DZ

1–614%

D 0%0–3N 0%0–2O 50%1–1 1 won into a shot

Bead = draw, winner’s colourClockwise from the top in game order Shot attempt within 10sHover a zone for its draws · click a taker to focus

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

HedmanD0 O1
MoserD0 O1
McDonaghD0 O0
CarlsonD0 O0
D'AstousD0 O0
CrozierD0 O0
LillebergD0 O0
GoncalvesD0 O1
GeekieD0 O1
O'ReillyD0 O1
KucherovD0 O0
GirgensonsD0 O0
SabourinD0 O0
GuentzelD0 O0
HagelD0 O0
VielD0 O0
HolmbergD0 O0
MikheyevD0 O0

Shift starts · darker = later period