TBL @ COL 3–6 · 2026-10-23

MTL4CHI1Final

Tampa BayTBLLightning3

FinalOct 232026-10-23

Team	1	2	3	SOG
TBL	0	2	1	34
COL	2	2	2	24

Ball Arena

ColoradoCOLAvalanche6

CallNo lean · 56% COL

Star 1N. MacKinnon1G 3A
Star 2M. Necas1G 2A
Star 3A. Lehkonen1G 1A

Closing linesDraftKings

+102Moneyline-122+1.5 -238Puck line-1.5 +195O -102Total 6.5U -118+145RegulationTie +310 +130-1051st period-125+1831st · 3-wayTie +180 +170

Season odds

97%95%−2.1Playoffs99%99%±0.014%14%−0.6Cup25%22%−3.0

Story

– / 20

Result COL 6–3Call No lean · COL 56%Market COL 53%xG 3.54–3.34 · deserved TBL 53%Swing Toews +15 1st 1:08Method

Goals and penalties with COL win probability
Time	Event	COL win before	COL win after
1st 1:08	Goal COL · D. Toews	56%	71%
1st 5:09	TBL penalty · B. Hagel · tripping · 2 min
1st 5:52	Goal COL · N. Kadri (PP)	72%	84%
1st 11:27	TBL penalty · J. Guentzel · unsportsmanlike conduct · 2 min
2nd 0:24	Goal COL · F. Svechkov	87%	94%
2nd 3:04	COL penalty · L. O'Connor · interference goalkeeper · 2 min
2nd 8:00	COL penalty · T. Makar · tripping · 2 min
2nd 8:00	TBL penalty · D. James · roughing · 2 min
2nd 8:00	COL penalty · S. Malinski · roughing · 2 min
2nd 8:13	Goal TBL · J. Guentzel (PP)	96%	89%
2nd 10:49	COL penalty · A. Lehkonen · tripping · 2 min
2nd 13:57	Goal COL · A. Lehkonen	91%	97%
2nd 17:17	COL penalty · J. Schwartz · too many men on the ice · 2 min
2nd 19:17	Goal TBL · J. Guentzel	98%	93%
2nd 19:17	COL penalty · T. Makar · delaying game unsuccessful challenge · 2 min
3rd 4:18	Goal COL · N. MacKinnon	95%	99%
3rd 4:59	TBL penalty · C. D'Astous · cross checking · 2 min
3rd 10:58	COL penalty · D. Toews · holding · 2 min
3rd 15:13	Goal TBL · C. D'Astous	99%	99%
3rd 17:19	Goal COL · M. Necas (EN)	99%	99%

On ice · final horn

TBL5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
28Z. GirgensonsC	0:07	12:55	21	0	0	0	2	5	0	4	2	12-8
93G. GoncalvesC	0:50	17:59	22	0	1	1	3	5	0	1	0	–
94C. GeekieC	0:50	12:35	15	0	0	0	1	2	0	6	1	1-1
24M. CrozierD	0:53	17:17	23	0	1	1	3	4	0	2	1	–
51C. D'AstousD	0:51	21:06	24	1	1	2	3	8	2	5	3	–
88A. VasilevskiyG		60:00	SA23GA5SV%.783xGA2.35GSAx−2.65

COL5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
9F. SvechkovC	0:31	11:48	17	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	5-3
71J. SchwartzL	0:49	13:07	17	0	1	1	0	0	2	1	0	–
13T. HughesR	0:49	13:10	16	0	1	1	4	5	0	0	0	0-3
27B. KulakD	1:05	21:06	25	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	–
42J. MansonD	0:30	18:21	23	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	–
39M. BlackwoodG		60:00	SA34GA3SV%.912xGA3.54GSAx+0.54

Goals

1st
Devon Toews(3)
M. Necas (7), N. MacKinnon (11)
xG 0.06wristClip(opens nhl.com)
0–1 COL1st 01:08+15.371%
Nazem Kadri(1)PP
T. Hughes (2), N. MacKinnon (12)
xG 0.16snapClip(opens nhl.com)
0–2 COL1st 05:52+12.484%
2nd
Fedor Svechkov(2)
J. Schwartz (4)
xG 0.04batClip(opens nhl.com)
0–3 COL2nd 00:24+7.794%
Jake Guentzel(5)PP
C. D'Astous (3), B. Point (6)
xG 0.25snapClip(opens nhl.com)
1–3 COL2nd 08:13+7.111%
Artturi Lehkonen(9)
N. MacKinnon (13), D. Toews (6)
xG 0.13snapClip(opens nhl.com)
1–4 COL2nd 13:57+6.497%
Jake Guentzel(6)
B. Point (7), B. Hagel (6)
xG 0.40snapClip(opens nhl.com)
2–4 COL2nd 19:17+5.57%
3rd
Nathan MacKinnon(7)
A. Lehkonen (4), M. Necas (8)
xG 0.17wristClip(opens nhl.com)
2–5 COL3rd 04:18+4.399%
Charle-Edouard D'Astous(2)
G. Goncalves (1), M. Crozier (3)
xG 0.16snapClip(opens nhl.com)
3–5 COL3rd 15:13+0.41%
Martin Necas(6)EN
G. Landeskog (3)
xG 0.99wristClip(opens nhl.com)
3–6 COL3rd 17:19+0.099%

Shots

Shooters

TBL3.54 xG53 unblocked · 22 blocked53 unblocked · 22 blocked

COL3.34 xG35 unblocked · 12 blocked35 unblocked · 12 blocked

Goal, taller = higher xGSavedMissedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

TBLCOL3Goals63.54xG3.3434Shots2453Unblocked3575Attempts476High danger61/6Power play1/338Faceoffs2630Hits1612Blocks223Takeaways718Giveaways168PIM14

Skaters

Player

Player
59J. GuentzelJake GuentzelC	22:12	2	0	2	7	7	1.27	+0.73	3	0	0	2	50%	2	0
51C. D'AstousCharle-Edouard D'AstousD	21:06	1	1	2	3	8	0.27	+0.73	5	3	1	0	—	2	+2
21B. PointBrayden PointC	20:50	0	2	2	3	7	0.43	−0.43	0	0	0	0	60%	0	0
86N. KucherovNikita KucherovR	20:43	0	0	0	2	6	0.12	−0.12	0	1	0	3	—	0	-1
38B. HagelBrandon HagelL	20:33	0	1	1	2	4	0.06	−0.06	1	0	0	4	—	2	-1
74J. CarlsonJohn CarlsonD	18:15	0	0	0	1	6	0.04	−0.04	1	0	0	1	—	0	-2
93G. GoncalvesGage GoncalvesC	17:59	0	1	1	3	5	0.36	−0.36	1	0	0	1	—	0	+1
27R. McDonaghRyan McDonaghD	17:27	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1	0	0	1	—	0	-2
71A. CirelliAnthony CirelliC	17:19	0	0	0	1	6	0.27	−0.27	1	1	0	0	59%	0	-2
24M. CrozierMax CrozierD	17:17	0	1	1	3	4	0.17	−0.17	2	1	1	1	—	0	0
81E. CernakErik CernakD	16:44	0	0	0	1	2	0.01	−0.01	2	2	0	1	—	0	-2
90J. MoserJ.J. MoserD	15:15	0	0	0	2	6	0.04	−0.04	0	2	0	0	—	0	-1
95I. MikheyevIlya MikheyevR	13:52	0	0	0	1	2	0.02	−0.02	1	0	1	2	100%	0	-3
28Z. GirgensonsZemgus GirgensonsC	12:55	0	0	0	2	5	0.18	−0.18	4	1	0	0	60%	0	-2
94C. GeekieConor GeekieC	12:35	0	0	0	1	2	0.09	−0.09	6	1	0	0	50%	0	0
17D. JamesDominic JamesC	12:28	0	0	0	1	2	0.06	−0.06	1	0	0	1	50%	2	0
29P. HolmbergPontus HolmbergR	11:59	0	0	0	1	3	0.15	−0.15	1	0	0	1	100%	0	-2
77V. HedmanVictor HedmanD	5:56	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0	—	0	-1
TBL total		3	6	9	34	75	3.54	−0.54	30	12	3	18	59%	8

Pony score

Incredible9.0+Great7.5+Good6.0+Average4.0+Below avg2.5+HorribleMethod

Forwards

Guentzel8.4

Point7.4

Goncalves6.8

Geekie5.9

Holmberg5.5

Girgensons5.0

Cirelli4.4

Kucherov4.2

James3.9

Hagel3.7

Mikheyev3.6

Defence

D'Astous9.0

Crozier6.3

Cernak5.9

Moser5.9

McDonagh5.0

Hedman4.7

Carlson3.6

Goalie

Vasilevskiy2.4

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Hagel·Cirelli·Kucherov	9:16	15	10	8	55.6%	2	4	0	1	0.37	0.19	66.4%	+0.18	2	1	67%
Girgensons·Holmberg·Mikheyev	8:38	16	11	6	64.7%	4	3	0	2	0.34	0.32	51.7%	+0.02	1	2	33%
Point·Guentzel·Goncalves	7:52	12	17	4	81.0%	10	1	1	0	1.11	0.27	80.5%	+0.84	1	0	100%
James·Goncalves·Geekie	5:06	8	4	5	44.4%	3	1	0	0	0.12	0.13	48.7%	−0.01	2	0	100%
Occasional · 7 groups
James·Guentzel·Geekie	1:43	2	3	2	60.0%	1	2	0	0	0.06	0.08	43.3%	−0.02	0	0	—
Hagel·James·Geekie	1:37	3	4	1	80.0%	3	1	0	0	0.04	0.03	52.7%	+0.00	1	0	100%
Point·Guentzel·Kucherov	1:28	4	0	2	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Point·Goncalves·Holmberg	0:51	3	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
James·Cirelli·Geekie	0:49	2	2	1	66.7%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.17	0.0%	−0.17	0	0	—
Hagel·Point·Guentzel	0:38	4	2	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.07	0.00	100.0%	+0.07	0	0	—
Point·Guentzel·Mikheyev	0:28	2	1	1	50.0%	0	1	0	1	0.01	0.17	7.2%	−0.16	0	0	—
Other 47 brief groups	6:30		3	7	30.0%	2	4	0	0	0.04	0.46	8.1%	−0.42
TBL 5v5	44:56		58	37	61.1%	25	18	1	4	2.17	1.82	54.3%	+0.34

Goalies

Andrei Vasilevskiy

TBL · 60:00

Saves: 18/23
SV%: .783
GAA: 5.00
xGA: 2.35
GSAx: −2.65

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	14/18	.778	1.82	−2.18
Power play	3/4	.750	0.42	−0.58
Shorthanded	1/1	1.000	0.12	+0.12
High danger	2/4	.500	0.91	−1.09

Mackenzie Blackwood

COL · 60:00

Saves: 31/34
SV%: .912
GAA: 3.00
xGA: 3.54
GSAx: +0.54

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	24/26	.923	2.57	+0.57
Power play	7/8	.875	0.97	−0.03
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	3/6	.500	1.35	−1.65

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Tampa Bay Lightning

Minutes

21:06D'Astous
18:15Carlson
17:27McDonagh
17:17Crozier
16:44Cernak
15:15Moser
5:56Hedman

22:12Guentzel
20:50Point
20:43Kucherov
20:33Hagel
17:59Goncalves
17:19Cirelli
13:52Mikheyev
12:55Girgensons
12:35Geekie
12:28James
11:59Holmberg

Matchups

Full game

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareTBLCOLGoalHard matchEdge bars = skater 5v5 total

Faceoffs

Both teams · pick a taker to focus

38–2659%

D 50%8–8N 61%14–9O 64%16–9 10 won into a shot

COL attacks88TBL DZ 50% COL OZ

Neutral149TBL NZ 61% COL NZ

TBL attacks169TBL OZ 64% COL DZ

26–3841%

D 36%9–16N 39%9–14O 50%8–8 4 won into a shot

Bead = draw, winner’s colourClockwise from the top in game order Shot attempt within 10sHover a zone for its draws · click a taker to focus

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

D'AstousD0 O7
CarlsonD0 O6
MoserD0 O4
CrozierD0 O2
HedmanD0 O0
McDonaghD4 O1
CernakD4 O1
PointD0 O7
KucherovD0 O6
GuentzelD0 O6
CirelliD1 O6
JamesD0 O4
GoncalvesD0 O3
GeekieD0 O3
HagelD1 O1
HolmbergD2 O2
GirgensonsD3 O2
MikheyevD3 O1

Shift starts · darker = later period