TBL @ BUF 2–4 · 2026-04-06

Team	1	2	3	SOG
TBL	1	1	0	25
BUF	2	1	1	30

Story

– / 19

Result BUF 4–2Call No lean · BUF 52%Market TBL 52%xG 2.57–3.71 · deserved BUF 69%Swing Zucker +19 2nd 7:38Method

Goals and penalties with BUF win probability
Time	Event	BUF win before	BUF win after
1st 1:56	TBL penalty · P. Holmberg · holding the stick · 2 min
1st 3:33	BUF penalty · A. Tuch · holding the stick · 2 min
1st 5:42	Goal BUF · A. Tuch	52%	67%
1st 7:19	TBL penalty · C. D'Astous · tripping · 2 min
1st 10:03	BUF penalty · J. Greenway · cross checking · 2 min
1st 10:03	BUF penalty · J. Dunne · roughing · 2 min
1st 10:03	TBL penalty · C. Perry · roughing · 2 min
1st 11:45	Goal TBL · N. Kucherov (PP)	68%	52%
1st 14:04	Goal BUF · J. Norris	51%	68%
1st 16:37	BUF penalty · J. Doan · tripping · 2 min
1st 19:25	TBL penalty · Z. Girgensons · slashing · 2 min
2nd 3:56	Goal TBL · J. Guentzel	69%	51%
2nd 4:06	BUF penalty · J. Quinn · high sticking · 2 min
2nd 7:38	Goal BUF · J. Zucker	51%	70%
2nd 10:05	TBL penalty · E. Cernak · interference · 2 min
2nd 16:32	BUF penalty · A. Tuch · tripping · 2 min
3rd 10:40	BUF penalty · Z. Benson · roughing · 2 min
3rd 10:40	TBL penalty · J. Guentzel · roughing · 2 min
3rd 18:06	Goal BUF · J. Quinn (EN)	95%	100%

On ice · final horn

TBL6 skaters · net empty

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	SOG	Att	Hit	Blk	FO
37Y. GourdeC	0:33	14:53	23	0	0	0	1	2-7
93G. GoncalvesC	0:35	19:17	24	0	2	3	1	–
20N. PaulL	0:41	18:05	25	2	4	3	0	13-5
22O. BjorkstrandR	0:39	14:57	18	1	2	5	1	–
27R. McDonaghD	0:39	16:44	22	0	2	0	2	–
90J. MoserD	1:01	19:54	23	2	3	0	0	–

BUF5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
19P. KrebsC	0:41	12:37	20	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	1	5-3
72T. ThompsonC	0:33	17:56	21	0	0	0	1	4	0	3	0	3-4
89A. TuchR	0:37	17:59	28	1	0	1	6	9	4	2	0	2-1
4B. ByramD	0:41	21:16	27	0	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	–
26R. DahlinD	1:08	23:01	24	0	1	1	1	4	0	1	0	–
1U. LuukkonenG		60:00	SA25GA2SV%.920xGA2.57GSAx+0.57

Goals

1st
Alex Tuch(1)
B. Byram (1), R. McLeod (1)
xG 0.05snapClip(opens nhl.com)
0–1 BUF1st 05:42+15.067%
Nikita Kucherov(1)PP
J. Guentzel (1), D. Raddysh (1)
xG 0.02snapClip(opens nhl.com)
1–1 Tied1st 11:45+15.948%
Josh Norris(1)
J. Doan (1), Z. Benson (1)
xG 0.06wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–2 BUF1st 14:04+16.368%
2nd
Jake Guentzel(1)
B. Point (1), D. Raddysh (2)
xG 0.10wristClip(opens nhl.com)
2–2 Tied2nd 03:56+18.349%
Jason Zucker(1)
B. Byram (2), R. Dahlin (1)
xG 0.08tip-inClip(opens nhl.com)
2–3 BUF2nd 07:38+19.370%
3rd
Jack Quinn(1)EN
J. Zucker (1), U. Luukkonen (1)
xG 0.47wristClip(opens nhl.com)
2–4 BUF3rd 18:06+4.7100%

Shots

TBL2.57 xG41 unblocked · 11 blocked41 unblocked · 11 blocked

BUF3.71 xG43 unblocked · 10 blocked43 unblocked · 10 blocked

GoalSavedMissedBlockedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

TBLBUF2Goals42.57xG3.7125Shots3041Unblocked4352Attempts533High danger51/5Power play0/431Faceoffs2828Hits2210Blocks115Takeaways418Giveaways1312PIM14

Skaters

Player

Player
43D. RaddyshDarren RaddyshD	25:45	0	2	2	4	6	0.23	−0.23	0	0	0	1	—	0	-2
59J. GuentzelJake GuentzelC	24:54	1	1	2	6	8	0.97	+0.03	1	0	0	1	56%	2	-1
86N. KucherovNikita KucherovR	23:30	1	0	1	3	10	0.37	+0.63	0	0	0	2	—	0	-1
21B. PointBrayden PointC	20:11	0	1	1	2	3	0.27	−0.27	1	0	0	1	50%	0	-1
90J. MoserJ.J. MoserD	19:54	0	0	0	2	3	0.07	−0.07	0	0	0	0	—	0	-1
93G. GoncalvesGage GoncalvesC	19:17	0	0	0	0	2	0.17	−0.17	3	0	2	0	—	0	0
20N. PaulNick PaulL	18:05	0	0	0	2	4	0.09	−0.09	3	0	0	3	72%	0	0
51C. D'AstousCharle-Edouard D'AstousD	18:02	0	0	0	3	5	0.14	−0.14	2	0	1	3	—	2	-1
78E. LillebergEmil LillebergD	16:58	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	−0.01	2	2	0	0	—	0	-1
27R. McDonaghRyan McDonaghD	16:44	0	0	0	0	2	0.10	−0.10	0	2	0	0	—	0	-1
22O. BjorkstrandOliver BjorkstrandR	14:57	0	0	0	1	2	0.02	−0.02	5	1	0	0	—	0	0
37Y. GourdeYanni GourdeC	14:53	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	1	0	3	22%	0	-2
81E. CernakErik CernakD	13:58	0	0	0	1	4	0.04	−0.04	1	2	2	2	—	2	0
10C. PerryCorey PerryR	12:36	0	0	0	1	2	0.08	−0.08	0	1	0	0	—	2	-2
28Z. GirgensonsZemgus GirgensonsC	11:29	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	2	0	0	1	43%	2	0
29P. HolmbergPontus HolmbergR	8:21	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1	1	0	0	—	2	-2
41M. ChaffeeMitchell ChaffeeR	6:23	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	2	0	0	0	33%	0	-1
46S. SabourinScott SabourinR	5:58	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	5	0	0	0	—	0	0
TBL total		2	4	6	25	52	2.57	−0.57	28	10	5	17	53%	12

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Guentzel+1.13

Kucherov+0.48

Point+0.27

Chaffee−0.15

Sabourin−0.20

Bjorkstrand−0.24

Gourde−0.27

Girgensons−0.30

Perry−0.34

Holmberg−0.40

Paul−0.41

Goncalves−0.45

Defence

Raddysh+0.29

Moser+0.10

Lilleberg+0.05

McDonagh−0.03

Cernak−0.27

D'Astous−0.38

Goalie

Vasilevskiy+0.26

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Point·Guentzel·Kucherov	5:51	12	8	1	88.9%	5	1	1	0	0.66	0.01	97.9%	+0.65	3	0	100%
Girgensons·Gourde·Holmberg	5:22	11	0	4	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.20	0.0%	−0.20	1	1	50%
Point·Goncalves·Kucherov	4:54	9	10	6	62.5%	3	2	0	0	0.54	0.39	57.9%	+0.15	0	0	—
Paul·Goncalves·Bjorkstrand	3:23	5	2	2	50.0%	0	1	0	0	0.07	0.07	53.2%	+0.01	0	1	0%
Perry·Chaffee·Sabourin	3:15	5	3	1	75.0%	1	1	0	0	0.08	0.04	67.7%	+0.04	1	0	100%
Paul·Guentzel·Bjorkstrand	2:53	5	8	4	66.7%	3	1	0	0	0.18	0.16	52.2%	+0.02	2	1	67%
Occasional · 9 groups
Paul·Perry·Chaffee	1:30	2	0	2	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.01	0.0%	−0.01	0	0	—
Paul·Perry·Sabourin	1:27	4	1	4	20.0%	1	4	0	0	0.02	0.51	3.2%	−0.49	0	0	—
Paul·Guentzel·Perry	0:54	2	2	1	66.7%	2	1	0	0	0.17	0.08	66.6%	+0.08	0	0	—
Gourde·Goncalves·Bjorkstrand	0:50	1	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Point·Girgensons·Kucherov	0:46	1	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Paul·Guentzel·Goncalves	0:43	2	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.05	0.0%	−0.05	0	1	0%
Paul·Bjorkstrand·Chaffee	0:34	1	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Girgensons·Gourde·Goncalves	0:32	3	0	2	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.03	0.0%	−0.03	0	0	—
Gourde·Perry·Holmberg	0:31	4	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.08	0.0%	−0.08	0	0	—
TBL 5v5	38:46		37	33	52.9%	18	17	1	3	1.79	1.90	48.5%	−0.11

Goalies

Andrei Vasilevskiy

TBL · 58:05

Saves: 26/29
SV%: .897
xGA: 3.23
GSAx: +0.23

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	16/19	.842	2.10	−0.90
Power play	7/7	1.000	0.68	+0.68
Shorthanded	3/3	1.000	0.45	+0.45
High danger	4/4	1.000	0.74	+0.74

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

BUF · 60:00

Saves: 23/25
SV%: .920
xGA: 2.57
GSAx: +0.57

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	19/20	.950	2.23	+1.23
Power play	4/5	.800	0.33	−0.67
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	3/3	1.000	0.55	+0.55

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Tampa Bay Lightning

Minutes

25:45Raddysh
19:54Moser
18:02D'Astous
16:58Lilleberg
16:44McDonagh
13:58Cernak

24:54Guentzel
23:30Kucherov
20:11Point
19:17Goncalves
18:05Paul
14:57Bjorkstrand
14:53Gourde
12:36Perry
11:29Girgensons
8:21Holmberg
6:23Chaffee
5:58Sabourin

Matchups

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareTBLBUF

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

D'AstousD0 O3
LillebergD1 O4
RaddyshD2 O3
MoserD2 O1
McDonaghD3 O1
CernakD3 O1
KucherovD0 O6
PaulD2 O8
GuentzelD3 O8
PointD1 O5
PerryD0 O2
BjorkstrandD3 O4
ChaffeeD0 O1
SabourinD0 O0
HolmbergD1 O1
GoncalvesD3 O2
GourdeD3 O1
GirgensonsD3 O1

Shift starts · darker = later period