BUF @ TOR 7–4 · 2026-01-27

Team	1	2	3	SOG
BUF	3	1	3	31
TOR	2	1	1	23

Story

– / 13

Result BUF 7–4Call No lean · BUF 54%xG 3.60–2.75 · deserved BUF 64%Swing Dahlin +24 2nd 18:17Method

Goals and penalties with TOR win probability
Time	Event	TOR win before	TOR win after
1st 7:44	Goal TOR · M. Knies	46%	63%
1st 9:29	Goal BUF · R. Dahlin	63%	46%
1st 10:49	Goal TOR · A. Matthews	46%	64%
1st 12:27	TOR penalty · S. Lorentz · cross checking · 2 min
1st 13:16	Goal BUF · J. Doan (PP)	64%	46%
1st 18:05	Goal BUF · T. Thompson	46%	28%
2nd 11:17	Goal TOR · B. McMann	25%	47%
2nd 18:17	Goal BUF · R. Dahlin	47%	23%
3rd 0:16	Goal BUF · A. Tuch	22%	7%
3rd 6:53	TOR penalty · B. Carlo · tripping · 2 min
3rd 11:33	Goal BUF · J. Quinn	2%	1%
3rd 14:59	Goal TOR · M. Domi	1%	1%
3rd 19:16	Goal BUF · R. Dahlin (EN)	1%	1%

On ice · final horn

BUF5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
19P. KrebsC	0:44	11:47	19	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	1	3-7
48T. KozakC	0:44	11:20	18	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	0	–
29B. MalenstynL	0:44	11:54	18	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	–
8M. KesselringD	0:44	15:08	17	0	0	0	2	5	0	1	2	–
23M. SamuelssonD	0:44	21:41	27	0	3	3	0	4	0	4	2	–
92C. EllisG		47:46	SA18GA2SV%.889xGA2.14GSAx+0.14

TOR5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
18S. LorentzC	0:44	13:04	16	0	0	0	1	3	2	5	0	–
19C. JarnkrokC	0:44	11:59	18	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	1	2-0
24S. LaughtonC	0:44	15:05	20	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	1	8-5
2S. BenoitD	0:44	16:40	23	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	1	–
28T. StecherD	0:44	19:47	27	0	0	0	1	4	0	1	2	–
60J. WollG		58:08	SA30GA6SV%.800xGA3.12GSAx−2.88

Goals

1st
Matthew Knies(1)
J. Tavares (1), M. Maccelli (1)
xG 0.27wristClip(opens nhl.com)
0–1 TOR1st 07:44+17.063%
Rasmus Dahlin(1)
R. McLeod (1), M. Samuelsson (1)
xG 0.04wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–1 Tied1st 09:29+17.354%
Auston Matthews(1)
M. Domi (1), O. Ekman-Larsson (1)
xG 0.13backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
1–2 TOR1st 10:49+17.664%
Josh Doan(1)PP
R. Dahlin (1)
xG 0.03wrist
2–2 Tied1st 13:16+18.054%
Tage Thompson(1)
Unassisted
xG 0.04wristClip(opens nhl.com)
3–2 BUF1st 18:05+18.172%
2nd
Bobby McMann(1)
A. Matthews (1), M. Domi (2)
xG 0.10wristClip(opens nhl.com)
3–3 Tied2nd 11:17+21.647%
Rasmus Dahlin(2)
M. Samuelsson (2), P. Krebs (1)
xG 0.06tip-inClip(opens nhl.com)
4–3 BUF2nd 18:17+24.477%
3rd
Alex Tuch(1)
T. Thompson (1), M. Samuelsson (3)
xG 0.06wristClip(opens nhl.com)
5–3 BUF3rd 00:16+14.493%
Jack Quinn(1)
R. Dahlin (2)
xG 0.12wristClip(opens nhl.com)
6–3 BUF3rd 11:33+2.099%
Max Domi(1)
A. Matthews (2), B. McMann (1)
xG 0.14wristClip(opens nhl.com)
6–4 BUF3rd 14:59+0.61%
Rasmus Dahlin(3)EN
Unassisted
xG 0.48wristClip(opens nhl.com)
7–4 BUF3rd 19:16+0.099%

Shots

BUF3.60 xG46 unblocked · 13 blocked46 unblocked · 13 blocked

TOR2.75 xG33 unblocked · 20 blocked33 unblocked · 20 blocked

GoalSavedMissedBlockedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

BUFTOR7Goals43.60xG2.7531Shots2346Unblocked3359Attempts536High danger31/2Power play0/017Faceoffs3516Hits3220Blocks135Takeaways824Giveaways110PIM4

Skaters

Player

Player
26R. DahlinRasmus DahlinD	26:24	3	2	5	7	10	0.96	+2.04	0	1	0	0	—	+2
25O. PowerOwen PowerD	23:02	0	0	0	3	4	0.13	−0.13	0	1	0	2	—	-1
4B. ByramBowen ByramD	22:48	0	0	0	0	1	0.21	−0.21	0	2	0	1	—	0
23M. SamuelssonMattias SamuelssonD	21:41	0	3	3	0	4	0.00	0.00	4	2	0	3	—	+2
72T. ThompsonTage ThompsonC	18:57	1	1	2	2	3	0.17	+0.83	1	3	1	1	14%	+1
86N. OstlundNoah OstlundC	18:33	0	0	0	1	2	0.14	−0.14	1	0	1	2	14%	0
91J. DoanJosh DoanR	17:19	1	0	1	5	8	0.42	+0.58	0	2	0	1	—	0
6Z. BensonZach BensonL	17:02	0	0	0	0	2	0.07	−0.07	0	1	1	1	—	+1
94K. HeleniusKonsta HeleniusC	16:12	0	0	0	2	3	0.13	−0.13	0	0	0	2	50%	-1
17J. ZuckerJason ZuckerL	15:55	0	0	0	3	4	0.62	−0.62	0	0	0	2	25%	0
89A. TuchAlex TuchR	15:44	1	0	1	2	4	0.16	+0.84	1	1	0	3	0%	+2
8M. KesselringMichael KesselringD	15:08	0	0	0	2	5	0.07	−0.07	1	2	0	1	—	+1
22J. QuinnJack QuinnR	14:21	1	0	1	2	5	0.44	+0.56	0	0	0	0	—	0
71R. McLeodRyan McLeodC	13:36	0	1	1	0	1	0.00	0.00	1	0	1	0	64%	0
29B. MalenstynBeck MalenstynL	11:54	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1	3	0	0	—	+1
19P. KrebsPeyton KrebsC	11:47	0	1	1	1	2	0.08	−0.08	0	1	1	1	30%	+1
48T. KozakTyson KozakC	11:20	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	6	0	0	2	—	+1
73Z. MetsaZach MetsaD	8:17	0	0	0	1	1	0.01	−0.01	0	0	0	1	—	0
BUF total		7	8	15	31	59	3.60	+3.40	16	19	5	23	33%

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Thompson+0.98

Doan+0.55

Tuch+0.41

Quinn+0.41

McLeod+0.29

Ostlund−0.10

Benson−0.18

Malenstyn−0.20

Krebs−0.23

Zucker−0.25

Helenius−0.28

Kozak−0.34

Defence

Dahlin+1.68

Samuelsson+0.35

Kesselring+0.11

Byram−0.10

Metsa−0.12

Power−0.29

Goalie

Ellis+0.15

Luukkonen−1.38

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Benson·Thompson·Tuch	13:27	19	12	14	46.2%	6	7	2	1	0.42	0.64	39.9%	−0.22	3	1	75%
Zucker·McLeod·Quinn	11:54	18	8	12	40.0%	5	6	2	2	0.57	0.59	49.1%	−0.02	6	2	75%
Ostlund·Helenius·Doan	11:22	16	19	6	76.0%	9	3	0	0	0.84	0.25	77.0%	+0.59	1	1	50%
Malenstyn·Krebs·Kozak	8:58	17	3	12	20.0%	2	3	1	0	0.09	0.61	13.0%	−0.52	1	4	20%
Occasional · 6 groups
Kozak·McLeod·Quinn	0:46	1	3	1	75.0%	1	1	0	0	0.27	0.03	90.2%	+0.25	0	0	—
Malenstyn·Krebs·Helenius	0:42	1	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Kozak·Ostlund·Helenius	0:39	3	2	1	66.7%	1	0	0	0	0.01	0.10	9.9%	−0.09	0	0	—
Benson·Malenstyn·Thompson	0:39	5	0	2	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Benson·Ostlund·Tuch	0:38	3	1	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.17	0.00	100.0%	+0.17	0	0	—
Ostlund·Quinn·Doan	0:35	2	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.14	0.0%	−0.14	0	0	—
BUF 5v5	55:19		53	50	51.5%	28	22	5	4	2.65	2.50	51.5%	+0.15

Goalies

Colten Ellis

BUF · 47:46

Saves: 16/18
SV%: .889
xGA: 2.14
GSAx: +0.14

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	16/18	.889	2.14	+0.14
Power play	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	2/2	1.000	0.38	+0.38

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

BUF · 12:14

Saves: 3/5
SV%: .600
xGA: 0.61
GSAx: −1.39

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	3/5	.600	0.61	−1.39
Power play	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	0/1	.000	0.27	−0.73

Joseph Woll

TOR · 58:08

Saves: 24/30
SV%: .800
xGA: 3.12
GSAx: −2.88

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	23/28	.821	2.65	−2.35
Power play	1/2	.500	0.47	−0.53
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	2/2	1.000	0.99	+0.99

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Buffalo Sabres

Minutes

26:24Dahlin
23:02Power
22:48Byram
21:41Samuelsson
15:08Kesselring
8:17Metsa

18:57Thompson
18:33Ostlund
17:19Doan
17:02Benson
16:12Helenius
15:55Zucker
15:44Tuch
14:21Quinn
13:36McLeod
11:54Malenstyn
11:47Krebs
11:20Kozak

Matchups

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareBUFTOR

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

MetsaD0 O3
DahlinD5 O4
KesselringD1 O0
ByramD2 O1
PowerD2 O1
SamuelssonD4 O2
ZuckerD2 O8
QuinnD2 O6
ThompsonD2 O5
McLeodD2 O5
TuchD1 O3
BensonD1 O3
DoanD1 O2
OstlundD1 O2
HeleniusD1 O1
MalenstynD3 O1
KrebsD3 O1
KozakD4 O1

Shift starts · darker = later period