BUF @ STL 4–2 · 2025-12-29

Team	1	2	3	SOG
BUF	1	1	2	34
STL	2	0	0	18

Story

– / 10

Result BUF 4–2Call No lean · STL 52%xG 4.19–1.60 · deserved BUF 88%Swing Benson +29 3rd 1:46Method

Goals and penalties with STL win probability
Time	Event	STL win before	STL win after
1st 2:19	Goal BUF · N. Ostlund	52%	34%
1st 5:08	Goal STL · B. Schenn	34%	52%
1st 8:09	Goal STL · J. Snuggerud	52%	70%
1st 10:31	BUF penalty · Z. Metsa · high sticking · 2 min
2nd 0:00	STL penalty · C. Fowler · hooking · 2 min
2nd 15:17	Goal BUF · A. Tuch	77%	51%
3rd 1:46	Goal BUF · Z. Benson	51%	22%
3rd 9:38	STL penalty · J. Faulk · interference · 2 min
3rd 15:55	STL penalty · P. Buchnevich · high sticking · 2 min
3rd 18:44	Goal BUF · P. Krebs (EN)	3%	0%

On ice · final horn

BUF5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
19P. KrebsC	0:14	14:12	19	1	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	1-0
86N. OstlundC	0:15	12:57	21	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	1-0
4B. ByramD	1:16	22:21	25	0	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	–
25O. PowerD	0:12	23:42	26	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	1	–
26R. DahlinD	0:13	23:40	25	0	0	0	5	7	0	1	0	–
34A. LyonG		59:25	SA18GA2SV%.889xGA1.60GSAx−0.40

STL5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
9R. FabbriC	1:16	11:52	17	0	1	1	2	3	0	4	1	–
28O. StenbergC	0:21	14:02	21	0	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	–
71M. JosephR	1:16	14:39	18	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	3	0-1
23L. MaillouxD	0:48	8:52	13	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	–
75T. TuckerD	0:43	13:30	20	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	–
30J. HoferG		59:29	SA33GA3SV%.909xGA3.73GSAx+0.73

Goals

1st
Noah Ostlund(1)
J. Norris (1)
xG 0.12wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–0 BUF1st 02:19+17.866%
Brayden Schenn(1)
O. Stenberg (1), J. Kyrou (1)
xG 0.09wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–1 Tied1st 05:08+18.352%
Jimmy Snuggerud(1)
R. Fabbri (1), C. Parayko (1)
xG 0.18wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–2 STL1st 08:09+18.370%
2nd
Alex Tuch(1)
M. Samuelsson (1)
xG 0.09snapClip(opens nhl.com)
2–2 Tied2nd 15:17+25.549%
3rd
Zach Benson(1)
J. Quinn (1), R. McLeod (1)
xG 0.10batClip(opens nhl.com)
3–2 BUF3rd 01:46+29.578%
Peyton Krebs(1)EN
B. Malenstyn (1)
xG 0.46wristClip(opens nhl.com)
4–2 BUF3rd 18:44+2.1100%

Shots

BUF4.19 xG52 unblocked · 18 blocked52 unblocked · 18 blocked

STL1.60 xG27 unblocked · 12 blocked27 unblocked · 12 blocked

GoalSavedMissedBlockedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

BUFSTL4Goals24.19xG1.6034Shots1852Unblocked2770Attempts396High danger10/3Power play0/130Faceoffs2418Hits2712Blocks185Takeaways312Giveaways172PIM6

Skaters

Player

Player
25O. PowerOwen PowerD	23:42	0	0	0	1	6	0.13	−0.13	0	1	0	0	—	0	+1
26R. DahlinRasmus DahlinD	23:40	0	0	0	5	7	0.30	−0.30	1	0	0	1	—	0	-1
4B. ByramBowen ByramD	22:21	0	0	0	0	3	0.41	−0.41	1	0	0	0	—	0	+2
23M. SamuelssonMattias SamuelssonD	22:14	0	1	1	2	4	0.12	−0.12	0	2	0	0	—	0	-1
72T. ThompsonTage ThompsonC	19:12	0	0	0	3	4	0.21	−0.21	1	0	1	1	56%	0	0
71R. McLeodRyan McLeodC	17:09	0	1	1	3	3	0.11	−0.11	1	0	1	1	67%	0	0
91J. DoanJosh DoanR	17:01	0	0	0	3	6	0.72	−0.72	1	1	1	0	—	0	0
9J. NorrisJosh NorrisC	16:26	0	1	1	0	1	0.14	−0.14	0	1	0	0	53%	0	+1
6Z. BensonZach BensonL	15:39	1	0	1	5	7	0.54	+0.46	0	0	0	2	0%	0	+1
8M. KesselringMichael KesselringD	15:33	0	0	0	1	6	0.02	−0.02	3	0	0	2	—	0	+1
29B. MalenstynBeck MalenstynL	14:35	0	1	1	1	1	0.11	−0.11	5	2	0	0	—	0	+1
19P. KrebsPeyton KrebsC	14:12	1	0	1	2	4	0.57	+0.43	0	0	0	1	100%	0	+1
22J. QuinnJack QuinnR	14:02	0	1	1	4	7	0.42	−0.42	1	0	0	1	0%	0	+1
89A. TuchAlex TuchR	13:54	1	0	1	2	4	0.15	+0.85	0	2	1	2	—	0	0
44J. DunneJosh DunneC	13:08	0	0	0	0	2	0.10	−0.10	2	2	0	0	43%	0	0
86N. OstlundNoah OstlundC	12:57	1	0	1	1	2	0.12	+0.88	0	0	0	0	100%	0	+1
12J. GreenwayJordan GreenwayL	12:32	0	0	0	1	3	0.02	−0.02	2	0	0	1	—	0	0
73Z. MetsaZach MetsaD	10:18	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	1	0	—	2	+2
BUF total		4	5	9	34	70	4.19	−0.19	18	11	5	12	56%	2

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Benson+0.76

Tuch+0.52

Quinn+0.51

Norris+0.49

Ostlund+0.39

Malenstyn+0.34

Doan+0.09

Dunne−0.02

McLeod−0.03

Krebs−0.24

Greenway−0.25

Thompson−0.26

Defence

Samuelsson+0.41

Byram+0.01

Dahlin−0.03

Power−0.06

Kesselring−0.08

Metsa−0.12

Goalie

Lyon−0.39

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Krebs·Thompson·Doan	11:14	17	12	7	63.2%	4	4	0	0	0.54	0.34	61.4%	+0.20	3	4	43%
Greenway·Malenstyn·Dunne	10:30	16	8	6	57.1%	2	2	0	0	0.13	0.09	59.8%	+0.04	1	2	33%
Benson·McLeod·Quinn	10:29	13	21	5	80.8%	12	2	1	0	1.42	0.28	83.3%	+1.14	3	0	100%
Norris·Ostlund·Tuch	8:50	17	12	6	66.7%	4	2	2	1	0.38	0.16	70.2%	+0.22	4	5	44%
Occasional · 3 groups
Benson·Norris·Thompson	1:21	2	1	1	50.0%	0	0	0	0	0.14	0.00	100.0%	+0.14	0	0	—
Malenstyn·Dunne·Ostlund	0:55	3	0	3	0.0%	0	2	0	0	0.00	0.16	0.0%	−0.16	0	0	—
McLeod·Ostlund·Tuch	0:43	3	1	2	33.3%	0	2	0	1	0.00	0.22	0.0%	−0.22	0	0	—
BUF 5v5	50:54		59	34	63.4%	26	16	3	2	2.92	1.34	68.6%	+1.59

Goalies

Alex Lyon

BUF · 59:25

Saves: 16/18
SV%: .889
xGA: 1.60
GSAx: −0.40

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	14/16	.875	1.34	−0.66
Power play	2/2	1.000	0.12	+0.12
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.15	+0.15
High danger	0/1	.000	0.18	−0.82

Joel Hofer

STL · 59:29

Saves: 30/33
SV%: .909
xGA: 3.73
GSAx: +0.73

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	23/26	.885	2.92	−0.08
Power play	7/7	1.000	0.80	+0.80
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	3/3	1.000	1.10	+1.10

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Buffalo Sabres

Minutes

23:42Power
23:40Dahlin
22:21Byram
22:14Samuelsson
15:33Kesselring
10:18Metsa

19:12Thompson
17:09McLeod
17:01Doan
16:26Norris
15:39Benson
14:35Malenstyn
14:12Krebs
14:02Quinn
13:54Tuch
13:08Dunne
12:57Ostlund
12:32Greenway

Matchups

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareBUFSTL

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

KesselringD1 O5
PowerD2 O6
DahlinD4 O2
SamuelssonD6 O3
ByramD5 O2
MetsaD4 O1
BensonD0 O4
QuinnD0 O3
ThompsonD2 O4
NorrisD5 O6
McLeodD1 O2
KrebsD3 O3
DoanD4 O4
OstlundD4 O4
TuchD5 O4
GreenwayD2 O1
MalenstynD2 O1
DunneD2 O1

Shift starts · darker = later period