NSH @ TOR 4–7 · 2025-10-14

Team	1	2	3	SOG
NSH	0	2	2	30
TOR	2	2	3	28

Story

– / 17

Result TOR 7–4xG 2.24–4.55 · deserved TOR 83%Swing Tavares +21 2nd 8:49Method

Goals and penalties with TOR win probability
Time	Event	TOR win before	TOR win after
1st 8:42	Goal TOR · J. McCabe	50%	67%
1st 13:34	Goal TOR · O. Ekman-Larsson	68%	82%
1st 15:01	TOR penalty · N. Roy · hooking · 2 min
2nd 3:21	Goal NSH · M. McCarron	85%	70%
2nd 4:05	Goal NSH · E. Haula	70%	50%
2nd 5:40	TOR penalty · M. Knies · hooking · 2 min
2nd 8:49	Goal TOR · J. Tavares	50%	71%
2nd 16:24	Goal TOR · B. McMann	74%	90%
2nd 17:44	NSH penalty · M. McCarron · roughing · 2 min
2nd 17:44	TOR penalty · B. Carlo · roughing · 2 min
3rd 3:28	NSH penalty · O. Wiesblatt · interference · 2 min
3rd 10:42	Goal TOR · A. Matthews	97%	100%
3rd 11:42	NSH penalty · A. Wilsby · holding · 2 min
3rd 16:06	Goal NSH · R. Josi	100%	99%
3rd 16:50	Goal TOR · A. Matthews (EN)	99%	100%
3rd 18:49	Goal NSH · N. Perbix	100%	100%
3rd 19:36	Goal TOR · W. Nylander (EN)	100%	100%

On ice · final horn

NSH5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
17T. JostC	0:24	11:24	17	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	2	1-1
40F. SvechkovC	0:24	14:30	21	0	0	0	2	4	0	1	1	4-5
77L. EvangelistaR	0:24	12:51	17	0	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	–
20J. BarronD	0:24	14:37	23	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	–
24S. StastneyD	0:24	15:44	26	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	–
29J. AnnunenG		59:10	SA26GA5SV%.808xGA3.53GSAx−1.47

TOR5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
11M. DomiC	0:24	12:48	16	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	3-5
74B. McMannC	0:24	15:04	17	1	0	1	4	7	0	2	1	–
89N. RobertsonL	0:24	12:26	17	0	1	1	1	2	0	3	0	–
2S. BenoitD	0:24	18:02	26	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	–
25B. CarloD	0:24	17:00	28	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	1	–
30C. PrimeauG		60:00	SA30GA4SV%.867xGA2.24GSAx−1.76

Goals

1st
Jake McCabe(1)
D. Joshua (1), J. Tavares (1)
xG 0.04wristClip(opens nhl.com)
0–1 TOR1st 08:42+17.067%
Oliver Ekman-Larsson(1)
W. Nylander (1), S. Benoit (1)
xG 0.04wristClip(opens nhl.com)
0–2 TOR1st 13:34+14.382%
2nd
Michael McCarron(1)
B. Skjei (1), N. Perbix (1)
xG 0.08wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–2 TOR2nd 03:21+15.030%
Erik Haula(1)
O. Wiesblatt (1)
xG 0.10wristClip(opens nhl.com)
2–2 Tied2nd 04:05+20.150%
John Tavares(1)
W. Nylander (2), O. Ekman-Larsson (1)
xG 0.26wristClip(opens nhl.com)
2–3 TOR2nd 08:49+21.571%
Bobby McMann(1)
N. Robertson (1), O. Ekman-Larsson (2)
xG 0.03wristClip(opens nhl.com)
2–4 TOR2nd 16:24+15.690%
3rd
Auston Matthews(1)
M. Knies (1), E. Cowan (1)
xG 0.14wristClip(opens nhl.com)
2–5 TOR3rd 10:42+2.7100%
Roman Josi(1)
A. Wilsby (1), J. Marchessault (1)
xG 0.04wristClip(opens nhl.com)
3–5 TOR3rd 16:06+0.31%
Auston Matthews(2)EN
J. Tavares (2), M. Knies (2)
xG 0.49wristClip(opens nhl.com)
3–6 TOR3rd 16:50+0.0100%
Nick Perbix(1)
A. Wilsby (2), O. Wiesblatt (2)
xG 0.05wristClip(opens nhl.com)
4–6 TOR3rd 18:49+0.00%
William Nylander(1)EN
M. Knies (3), J. McCabe (1)
xG 0.53wristClip(opens nhl.com)
4–7 TOR3rd 19:36+0.0100%

Shots

NSH2.24 xG44 unblocked · 27 blocked44 unblocked · 27 blocked

TOR4.55 xG45 unblocked · 12 blocked45 unblocked · 12 blocked

GoalSavedMissedBlockedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

NSHTOR4Goals72.24xG4.5530Shots2844Unblocked4571Attempts571High danger80/2Power play0/229Faceoffs3018Hits2112Blocks274Takeaways417Giveaways176PIM6

Skaters

Player

Player
59R. JosiRoman JosiD	23:13	1	0	1	4	8	0.20	+0.80	1	3	0	2	—	0	-3
76B. SkjeiBrady SkjeiD	22:50	0	1	1	3	6	0.08	−0.08	0	2	0	2	—	0	-1
48N. PerbixNick PerbixD	21:45	1	1	2	2	5	0.06	+0.94	1	0	1	0	—	0	+2
90R. O'ReillyRyan O'ReillyC	18:57	0	0	0	0	3	0.24	−0.24	0	1	0	1	50%	0	-3
83A. WilsbyAdam WilsbyD	18:15	0	2	2	0	4	0.09	−0.09	1	0	0	2	—	2	0
81J. MarchessaultJonathan MarchessaultR	17:30	0	1	1	4	6	0.25	−0.25	0	0	0	1	—	0	-3
56E. HaulaErik HaulaL	17:29	1	0	1	1	1	0.10	+0.90	1	0	0	1	36%	0	-1
9F. ForsbergFilip ForsbergL	17:29	0	0	0	4	8	0.17	−0.17	4	0	1	2	—	0	-3
91S. StamkosSteven StamkosC	17:23	0	0	0	2	5	0.22	−0.22	0	1	0	0	71%	0	-2
24S. StastneySpencer StastneyD	15:44	0	0	0	0	3	0.01	−0.01	0	2	1	3	—	0	-2
58M. BuntingMichael BuntingL	15:30	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0	—	0	0
20J. BarronJustin BarronD	14:37	0	0	0	1	2	0.02	−0.02	0	2	0	1	—	0	-2
40F. SvechkovFedor SvechkovC	14:30	0	0	0	2	4	0.05	−0.05	1	0	0	0	44%	0	+1
36C. SmithCole SmithR	13:05	0	0	0	1	3	0.15	−0.15	5	0	0	0	0%	0	0
77L. EvangelistaLuke EvangelistaR	12:51	0	0	0	2	7	0.28	−0.28	0	0	1	0	—	0	0
47M. McCarronMichael McCarronC	12:48	1	0	1	1	1	0.08	+0.92	2	0	0	1	58%	2	0
17T. JostTyson JostC	11:24	0	0	0	2	3	0.18	−0.18	0	0	0	0	50%	0	0
89O. WiesblattOzzy WiesblattC	9:30	0	2	2	1	2	0.04	−0.04	2	0	0	1	—	2	0
NSH total		4	7	11	30	71	2.24	+1.76	18	11	4	17	49%	6

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

McCarron+0.47

Wiesblatt+0.30

Haula+0.18

Svechkov+0.02

Jost−0.24

Evangelista−0.26

Smith−0.30

O'Reilly−0.37

Forsberg−0.38

Marchessault−0.38

Stamkos−0.40

Bunting−0.47

Defence

Josi+0.41

Perbix+0.34

Skjei+0.26

Wilsby+0.26

Stastney−0.07

Barron−0.11

Goalie

Annunen−1.44

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Haula·Bunting·Marchessault	10:33	17	6	10	37.5%	3	5	0	1	0.12	0.92	11.1%	−0.81	2	0	100%
McCarron·Wiesblatt·Smith	7:41	16	10	5	66.7%	5	3	2	2	0.38	0.14	73.6%	+0.24	0	2	0%
Forsberg·O'Reilly·Stamkos	6:34	11	10	5	66.7%	4	2	0	0	0.17	0.28	38.5%	−0.10	4	1	80%
Svechkov·Stamkos·Evangelista	5:21	8	3	7	30.0%	1	3	0	0	0.12	0.54	18.2%	−0.42	2	0	100%
Forsberg·Jost·O'Reilly	5:15	8	8	7	53.3%	2	3	0	0	0.08	0.32	20.9%	−0.24	1	1	50%
Jost·Svechkov·Evangelista	4:21	8	11	4	73.3%	6	2	0	0	0.33	0.14	70.5%	+0.19	2	0	100%
Occasional · 4 groups
Bunting·McCarron·Marchessault	0:45	3	0	3	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.14	0.0%	−0.14	0	0	—
Wiesblatt·O'Reilly·Smith	0:39	4	0	2	0.0%	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.33	0.0%	−0.33	0	0	—
Bunting·McCarron·Wiesblatt	0:34	3	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Jost·McCarron·Smith	0:30	1	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
NSH 5v5	49:10		59	47	55.7%	25	22	4	5	1.57	2.94	34.8%	−1.37

Goalies

Justus Annunen

NSH · 59:10

Saves: 21/26
SV%: .808
xGA: 3.53
GSAx: −1.47

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	17/22	.773	2.94	−2.06
Power play	4/4	1.000	0.59	+0.59
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	5/6	.833	1.22	+0.22

Cayden Primeau

TOR · 60:00

Saves: 26/30
SV%: .867
xGA: 2.24
GSAx: −1.76

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	21/25	.840	1.94	−2.06
Power play	5/5	1.000	0.30	+0.30
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	0/0	—	0.15	+0.15

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Nashville Predators

Minutes

23:13Josi
22:50Skjei
21:45Perbix
18:15Wilsby
15:44Stastney
14:37Barron

18:57O'Reilly
17:30Marchessault
17:29Haula
17:29Forsberg
17:23Stamkos
15:30Bunting
14:30Svechkov
13:05Smith
12:51Evangelista
12:48McCarron
11:24Jost
9:30Wiesblatt

Matchups

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareNSHTOR

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

SkjeiD3 O5
StastneyD0 O1
BarronD0 O1
JosiD3 O3
PerbixD3 O3
WilsbyD3 O3
StamkosD0 O7
ForsbergD1 O7
SvechkovD0 O6
O'ReillyD1 O6
EvangelistaD0 O5
MarchessaultD0 O4
BuntingD0 O3
JostD1 O3
HaulaD2 O3
WiesblattD2 O0
SmithD3 O0
McCarronD4 O0

Shift starts · darker = later period