TBL @ BUF 7–8 · 2026-03-08

Team	1	2	3	SOG
TBL	0	4	3	29
BUF	1	3	4	42

Story

– / 43

Result BUF 8–7Call No lean · TBL 58%Market TBL 52%xG 4.66–4.44 · deserved TBL 53%Swing Doan +44 3rd 15:43Method

Goals and penalties with BUF win probability
Time	Event	BUF win before	BUF win after
1st 4:36	TBL penalty · D. Raddysh · slashing · 2 min
1st 4:36	TBL penalty · B. Hagel · boarding · 2 min
1st 4:36	TBL penalty · D. Raddysh · fighting · 5 min
1st 4:36	BUF penalty · R. Dahlin · fighting · 5 min
1st 8:20	TBL penalty · E. Cernak · interference · 2 min
1st 8:26	Goal BUF · J. Doan (PP)	42%	61%
1st 8:54	BUF penalty · S. Carrick · fighting · 5 min
1st 8:54	TBL penalty · S. Sabourin · fighting · 5 min
1st 9:13	TBL penalty · C. D'Astous · roughing · 2 min
1st 9:13	BUF penalty · B. Byram · roughing · 2 min
1st 9:13	TBL penalty · B. Hagel · fighting · 5 min
1st 9:13	BUF penalty · P. Krebs · fighting · 5 min
1st 9:13	BUF penalty · B. Byram · misconduct · 10 min
1st 9:13	TBL penalty · C. D'Astous · misconduct · 10 min
1st 10:40	BUF penalty · M. Samuelsson · slashing · 2 min
1st 10:40	TBL penalty · N. Kucherov · slashing · 2 min
1st 14:59	TBL penalty · E. Cernak · unsportsmanlike conduct · 2 min
1st 14:59	BUF penalty · M. Kesselring · unsportsmanlike conduct · 2 min
1st 16:41	BUF penalty · N. Ostlund · unsportsmanlike conduct · 2 min
2nd 0:02	BUF penalty · M. Kesselring · fighting · 5 min
2nd 0:02	TBL penalty · E. Cernak · fighting · 5 min
2nd 0:06	TBL penalty · C. Perry · fighting · 5 min
2nd 0:06	BUF penalty · B. Malenstyn · fighting · 5 min
2nd 1:31	TBL penalty · R. McDonagh · high sticking · 2 min
2nd 2:15	Goal BUF · J. Zucker (PP)	65%	82%
2nd 3:35	TBL penalty · B. Hagel · roughing · 2 min
2nd 3:35	TBL penalty · B. Hagel · roughing · 2 min
2nd 5:10	Goal BUF · A. Tuch (PP)	83%	93%
2nd 7:55	Goal TBL · C. Perry	94%	84%
2nd 10:56	BUF penalty · O. Power · high sticking · 2 min
2nd 11:07	Goal BUF · A. Tuch (SH)	86%	95%
2nd 12:26	Goal TBL · N. Kucherov (PP)	95%	86%
2nd 14:46	Goal TBL · Z. Girgensons	88%	70%
2nd 17:37	Goal TBL · J. Moser	72%	44%
3rd 0:59	Goal TBL · N. Kucherov	45%	18%
3rd 5:46	Goal TBL · B. Point	16%	4%
3rd 6:12	Goal BUF · S. Carrick	4%	15%
3rd 9:48	Goal TBL · B. Hagel	13%	2%
3rd 11:03	Goal BUF · R. Dahlin	2%	12%
3rd 14:29	Goal BUF · J. Zucker	8%	46%
3rd 15:03	TBL penalty · Z. Girgensons · slashing · 2 min
3rd 15:43	Goal BUF · J. Doan (PP)	46%	91%
OT 0:00	TBL penalty · A. Cirelli · charging · 2 min

On ice · final horn

TBL6 skaters · net empty

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
21B. PointC	1:21	17:13	19	1	0	1	2	6	0	1	1	3-6
59J. GuentzelC	1:15	17:44	20	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	2-5
71A. CirelliC	1:13	18:55	27	0	1	1	1	3	0	4	0	12-10
38B. HagelL	1:09	16:42	23	1	1	2	2	6	11	0	1	–
86N. KucherovR	1:06	19:15	24	2	1	3	5	7	2	5	0	–
43D. RaddyshD	1:13	23:13	26	0	3	3	4	8	7	1	1	–

BUF5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
71R. McLeodC	0:51	21:03	26	0	1	1	2	4	0	1	1	15-9
89A. TuchR	1:15	18:54	24	2	0	2	4	5	0	3	2	–
91J. DoanR	1:11	18:25	24	2	0	2	4	6	0	2	0	–
4B. ByramD	1:16	20:12	25	0	3	3	7	7	12	1	0	–
26R. DahlinD	1:16	26:16	30	1	2	3	1	3	5	0	1	–
1U. LuukkonenG		59:21	SA29GA7SV%.759xGA4.66GSAx−2.34

Goals

1st
Josh Doan(1)PP
T. Thompson (1), B. Byram (1)
xG 0.06wristClip(opens nhl.com)
0–1 BUF1st 08:26+18.561%
2nd
Jason Zucker(1)PP
R. Dahlin (1), T. Thompson (2)
xG 0.11snapClip(opens nhl.com)
0–2 BUF2nd 02:15+17.282%
Alex Tuch(1)PP
T. Thompson (3), N. Ostlund (1)
xG 0.23tip-inClip(opens nhl.com)
0–3 BUF2nd 05:10+10.193%
Corey Perry(1)
N. Kucherov (1), D. Raddysh (1)
xG 0.15backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
1–3 BUF2nd 07:55+9.716%
Alex Tuch(2)SH
B. Byram (2)
xG 0.17backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
1–4 BUF2nd 11:07+9.195%
Nikita Kucherov(1)PP
D. Raddysh (2)
xG 0.03wristClip(opens nhl.com)
2–4 BUF2nd 12:26+8.914%
Zemgus Girgensons(1)
Y. Gourde (1), J. Moser (1)
xG 0.12snapClip(opens nhl.com)
3–4 BUF2nd 14:46+17.730%
J.J. Moser(1)
C. Geekie (1)
xG 0.15wristClip(opens nhl.com)
4–4 Tied2nd 17:37+27.256%
3rd
Nikita Kucherov(2)
B. Hagel (1), J. Moser (2)
xG 0.13snapClip(opens nhl.com)
5–4 TBL3rd 00:59+26.482%
Brayden Point(1)
Unassisted
xG 0.95Clip(opens nhl.com)
6–4 TBL3rd 05:46+12.196%
Sam Carrick(1)
Z. Benson (1), M. Kesselring (1)
xG 0.06wristClip(opens nhl.com)
6–5 TBL3rd 06:12+12.015%
Brandon Hagel(1)
A. Cirelli (1), D. Raddysh (3)
xG 0.14wristClip(opens nhl.com)
7–5 TBL3rd 09:48+10.698%
Rasmus Dahlin(1)
T. Thompson (4), B. Byram (3)
xG 0.11wristClip(opens nhl.com)
7–6 TBL3rd 11:03+9.912%
Jason Zucker(2)
R. McLeod (1)
xG 0.14backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
7–7 Tied3rd 14:29+37.846%
Josh Doan(2)PP
J. Zucker (1), R. Dahlin (2)
xG 0.21wristClip(opens nhl.com)
7–8 BUF3rd 15:43+44.491%

Shots

TBL4.66 xG45 unblocked · 18 blocked45 unblocked · 18 blocked

BUF4.44 xG53 unblocked · 8 blocked53 unblocked · 8 blocked

GoalSavedMissedBlockedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

TBLBUF7Goals84.66xG4.4429Shots4245Unblocked5363Attempts619High danger81/2Power play4/732Faceoffs3240Hits278Blocks182Takeaways511Giveaways1757PIM45

Skaters

Player

Player
90J. MoserJ.J. MoserD	26:17	1	2	3	3	4	0.51	+0.49	2	0	0	0	—	0	+2
43D. RaddyshDarren RaddyshD	23:13	0	3	3	4	8	0.25	−0.25	1	1	0	1	—	7	+2
27R. McDonaghRyan McDonaghD	20:41	0	0	0	0	3	0.01	−0.01	0	0	1	0	—	2	0
77V. HedmanVictor HedmanD	20:07	0	0	0	3	7	0.10	−0.10	1	0	0	0	—	0	+2
86N. KucherovNikita KucherovR	19:15	2	1	3	5	7	0.39	+1.61	5	0	0	1	—	2	+1
71A. CirelliAnthony CirelliC	18:55	0	1	1	1	3	0.21	−0.21	4	0	0	2	55%	2	+1
37Y. GourdeYanni GourdeC	18:39	0	1	1	2	3	0.37	−0.37	2	0	0	3	60%	0	+1
51C. D'AstousCharle-Edouard D'AstousD	18:37	0	0	0	1	4	0.10	−0.10	4	0	0	0	—	12	-1
59J. GuentzelJake GuentzelC	17:44	0	0	0	1	3	0.22	−0.22	0	0	0	1	29%	0	-1
21B. PointBrayden PointC	17:13	1	0	1	2	6	1.24	−0.24	1	1	0	0	33%	0	0
38B. HagelBrandon HagelL	16:42	1	1	2	2	6	0.61	+0.39	0	1	0	0	—	11	+1
28Z. GirgensonsZemgus GirgensonsC	15:48	1	0	1	1	3	0.18	+0.82	4	0	0	0	67%	2	0
22O. BjorkstrandOliver BjorkstrandR	14:02	0	0	0	2	3	0.16	−0.16	2	0	0	1	—	0	0
29P. HolmbergPontus HolmbergR	13:17	0	0	0	0	1	0.06	−0.06	4	0	0	0	—	0	0
10C. PerryCorey PerryR	8:54	1	0	1	1	1	0.15	+0.85	0	0	0	1	—	5	+2
14C. GeekieConor GeekieC	7:33	0	1	1	1	1	0.10	−0.10	6	0	1	0	43%	0	0
81E. CernakErik CernakD	6:49	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	3	0	0	—	9	0
46S. SabourinScott SabourinR	4:17	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	4	0	0	1	—	5	0
TBL total		7	10	17	29	63	4.66	+2.34	40	6	2	11	50%	57

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Kucherov+1.74

Point+0.76

Perry+0.69

Hagel+0.59

Geekie+0.47

Girgensons+0.28

Bjorkstrand+0.17

Gourde+0.15

Cirelli+0.02

Sabourin−0.07

Holmberg−0.26

Guentzel−0.37

Defence

Raddysh+0.53

Moser+0.53

Cernak+0.06

D'Astous−0.09

Hedman−0.19

McDonagh−0.20

Goalie

Johansson−4.01

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Hagel·Cirelli·Kucherov	9:02	15	10	10	50.0%	4	8	1	0	0.80	0.68	54.0%	+0.12	2	4	33%
Girgensons·Gourde·Holmberg	7:44	12	11	6	64.7%	6	6	1	1	0.79	0.45	63.8%	+0.34	0	1	0%
Point·Guentzel·Bjorkstrand	5:19	9	6	3	66.7%	2	3	0	0	0.11	0.06	64.1%	+0.05	0	0	—
Geekie·Perry·Sabourin	3:34	9	2	3	40.0%	1	1	1	1	0.15	0.13	52.8%	+0.02	0	0	—
Girgensons·Gourde·Bjorkstrand	2:37	5	4	4	50.0%	0	1	0	0	0.03	0.23	10.9%	−0.20	0	2	0%
Point·Guentzel·Holmberg	1:57	3	3	2	60.0%	1	1	0	0	0.04	0.11	25.5%	−0.08	0	1	0%
Point·Guentzel·Perry	1:48	2	0	3	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.06	0.0%	−0.06	0	0	—
Occasional · 7 groups
Geekie·Girgensons·Gourde	1:07	1	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Point·Guentzel·Kucherov	0:44	2	1	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.18	0.00	100.0%	+0.18	0	0	—
Gourde·Perry·Holmberg	0:42	1	0	3	0.0%	0	2	0	0	0.00	0.18	0.0%	−0.18	0	0	—
Cirelli·Bjorkstrand·Kucherov	0:40	3	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.02	0.0%	−0.02	0	0	—
Hagel·Point·Kucherov	0:39	3	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Hagel·Cirelli·Bjorkstrand	0:39	1	2	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.26	0.00	100.0%	+0.26	1	0	100%
Hagel·Geekie·Kucherov	0:38	2	1	1	50.0%	1	1	0	1	0.10	0.14	41.1%	−0.04	0	0	—
TBL 5v5	43:56		46	42	52.3%	21	27	6	3	3.91	2.31	62.8%	+1.60

Goalies

Jonas Johansson

TBL · 58:54

Saves: 34/42
SV%: .810
xGA: 3.96
GSAx: −4.04

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	27/30	.900	2.53	−0.47
Power play	6/10	.600	1.20	−2.80
Shorthanded	1/2	.500	0.24	−0.76
High danger	3/6	.500	1.35	−1.65

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

BUF · 59:21

Saves: 22/29
SV%: .759
xGA: 4.66
GSAx: −2.34

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	20/26	.769	4.06	−1.94
Power play	2/3	.667	0.60	−0.40
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	4/6	.667	2.59	+0.59

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Tampa Bay Lightning

Minutes

26:17Moser
23:13Raddysh
20:41McDonagh
20:07Hedman
18:37D'Astous
6:49Cernak

19:15Kucherov
18:55Cirelli
18:39Gourde
17:44Guentzel
17:13Point
16:42Hagel
15:48Girgensons
14:02Bjorkstrand
13:17Holmberg
8:54Perry
7:33Geekie
4:17Sabourin

Matchups

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareTBLBUF

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

RaddyshD3 O3
CernakD0 O0
HedmanD2 O0
D'AstousD3 O0
McDonaghD5 O1
MoserD6 O2
KucherovD4 O5
GuentzelD1 O2
PointD1 O2
PerryD0 O0
SabourinD0 O0
GeekieD0 O0
BjorkstrandD2 O1
HagelD4 O3
CirelliD6 O4
HolmbergD3 O0
GirgensonsD6 O0
GourdeD8 O0

Shift starts · darker = later period