CAR @ TBL 4–6 · 2025-12-20

Team	1	2	3	SOG
CAR	3	0	1	22
TBL	0	3	3	29

Story

– / 21

Result TBL 6–4Call No lean · TBL 58%xG 2.31–4.11 · deserved TBL 78%Swing McDonagh +32 3rd 3:13Method

Goals and penalties with TBL win probability
Time	Event	TBL win before	TBL win after
1st 2:42	Goal CAR · E. Robinson	57%	39%
1st 3:27	TBL penalty · D. Carlile · holding · 2 min
1st 4:00	Goal CAR · J. Blake (PP)	38%	22%
1st 6:00	CAR penalty · A. Svechnikov · interference · 2 min
1st 10:35	TBL penalty · J. Finley · high sticking double minor · 4 min
1st 12:27	Goal CAR · B. Nadeau (PP)	19%	9%
1st 14:36	TBL penalty · Z. Girgensons · high sticking · 2 min
2nd 0:30	Goal TBL · G. Goncalves	7%	16%
2nd 1:20	Goal TBL · B. Point	16%	34%
2nd 2:07	TBL penalty · N. Paul · roughing · 2 min
2nd 2:07	CAR penalty · M. Jankowski · roughing · 2 min
2nd 2:07	CAR penalty · J. Kotkaniemi · roughing · 2 min
2nd 2:07	TBL penalty · D. Carlile · roughing · 2 min
2nd 2:07	CAR penalty · J. Kotkaniemi · roughing · 2 min
2nd 16:36	Goal TBL · J. Finley	27%	55%
2nd 18:07	TBL penalty · D. Raddysh · roughing · 2 min
3rd 2:47	Goal CAR · A. Svechnikov	55%	23%
3rd 3:13	Goal TBL · R. McDonagh	22%	55%
3rd 6:38	Goal TBL · J. Guentzel	54%	86%
3rd 14:32	CAR penalty · A. Svechnikov · tripping · 2 min
3rd 19:33	Goal TBL · J. Guentzel (EN)	99%	99%

On ice · final horn

CAR5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
82J. KotkaniemiC	0:27	10:06	15	0	1	1	0	1	4	1	0	0-2
28W. CarrierL	0:27	9:50	15	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	2	–
77M. JankowskiL	0:27	10:55	18	0	1	1	0	2	2	1	0	6-5
6M. ReillyD	0:27	13:45	19	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	–
26S. WalkerD	0:27	18:05	22	0	0	0	3	6	0	2	0	–
52P. KochetkovG		59:06	SA28GA5SV%.821xGA3.61GSAx−1.39

TBL5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
17D. JamesC	0:27	10:44	13	0	2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1-1
62J. FinleyC	0:27	8:19	13	1	0	1	2	2	4	1	0	2-4
93G. GoncalvesC	0:27	10:18	12	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	1	–
24M. CrozierD	0:27	16:42	19	0	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	–
67D. CarlileD	0:27	15:22	17	0	0	0	1	3	4	0	2	–
88A. VasilevskiyG		60:00	SA22GA4SV%.818xGA2.31GSAx−1.69

Goals

1st
Eric Robinson(1)
J. Staal (1)
xG 0.07slapClip(opens nhl.com)
1–0 CAR1st 02:42+18.961%
Jackson Blake(1)PP
N. Ehlers (1), S. Gostisbehere (1)
xG 0.08tip-inClip(opens nhl.com)
2–0 CAR1st 04:00+16.378%
Bradly Nadeau(1)PP
L. Stankoven (1)
xG 0.21wristClip(opens nhl.com)
3–0 CAR1st 12:27+10.691%
2nd
Gage Goncalves(1)
D. James (1), M. Crozier (1)
xG 0.20snapClip(opens nhl.com)
3–1 CAR2nd 00:30+9.916%
Brayden Point(1)
C. D'Astous (1), N. Kucherov (1)
xG 0.15tip-inClip(opens nhl.com)
3–2 CAR2nd 01:20+17.434%
Jack Finley(1)
D. James (2), Y. Gourde (1)
xG 0.19wristClip(opens nhl.com)
3–3 Tied2nd 16:36+28.455%
3rd
Andrei Svechnikov(1)
M. Jankowski (1), J. Kotkaniemi (1)
xG 0.14backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
4–3 CAR3rd 02:47+32.077%
Ryan McDonagh(1)
P. Holmberg (1), C. D'Astous (2)
xG 0.20wristClip(opens nhl.com)
4–4 Tied3rd 03:13+32.355%
Jake Guentzel(1)
J. Moser (1), N. Paul (1)
xG 0.20backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
4–5 TBL3rd 06:38+31.686%
Jake Guentzel(2)EN
R. McDonagh (1)
xG 0.50wristClip(opens nhl.com)
4–6 TBL3rd 19:33+0.299%

Shots

CAR2.31 xG35 unblocked · 15 blocked35 unblocked · 15 blocked

TBL4.11 xG45 unblocked · 16 blocked45 unblocked · 16 blocked

GoalSavedMissedBlockedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

CARTBL4Goals62.31xG4.1122Shots2935Unblocked4550Attempts613High danger102/5Power play0/322Faceoffs3023Hits1916Blocks156Takeaways113Giveaways1410PIM14

Skaters

Player

Player
19K. MillerK'Andre MillerD	21:28	0	0	0	1	5	0.08	−0.08	2	2	0	0	—	0	-1
20S. AhoSebastian AhoC	21:19	0	0	0	1	2	0.09	−0.09	1	0	0	2	33%	0	-3
5J. ChatfieldJalen ChatfieldD	19:59	0	0	0	1	2	0.09	−0.09	0	1	0	1	—	0	-2
21A. NikishinAlexander NikishinD	19:45	0	0	0	0	5	0.01	−0.01	2	2	1	1	—	0	+1
27N. EhlersNikolaj EhlersL	19:36	0	1	1	1	1	0.10	−0.10	0	2	0	1	—	0	-3
53J. BlakeJackson BlakeR	19:25	1	0	1	1	1	0.08	+0.92	0	0	1	1	—	0	-3
37A. SvechnikovAndrei SvechnikovR	18:12	1	0	1	2	8	0.43	+0.57	2	0	1	2	—	4	-1
4S. GostisbehereShayne GostisbehereD	18:11	0	1	1	1	2	0.03	−0.03	0	1	0	0	—	0	-2
26S. WalkerSean WalkerD	18:05	0	0	0	3	6	0.21	−0.21	2	0	0	1	—	0	-1
22L. StankovenLogan StankovenC	16:22	0	1	1	2	3	0.27	−0.27	0	0	0	1	50%	0	-1
71T. HallTaylor HallL	15:52	0	0	0	2	2	0.24	−0.24	0	3	0	1	—	0	-2
11J. StaalJordan StaalC	15:08	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0.00	4	1	0	0	39%	0	-1
50E. RobinsonEric RobinsonL	13:50	1	0	1	3	3	0.26	+0.74	1	0	0	1	—	0	0
6M. ReillyMike ReillyD	13:45	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	−0.01	0	1	2	0	—	0	-2
29B. NadeauBradly NadeauL	13:06	1	0	1	4	5	0.41	+0.59	4	0	0	1	—	0	-2
77M. JankowskiMark JankowskiL	10:55	0	1	1	0	2	0.00	0.00	1	0	1	0	55%	2	+1
82J. KotkaniemiJesperi KotkaniemiC	10:06	0	1	1	0	1	0.00	0.00	1	0	0	0	0%	4	+1
28W. CarrierWilliam CarrierL	9:50	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	3	2	0	0	—	0	0
CAR total		4	6	10	22	50	2.31	+1.69	23	15	6	13	42%	10

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Nadeau+0.72

Robinson+0.53

Jankowski+0.39

Stankoven+0.36

Staal+0.20

Blake+0.05

Ehlers+0.01

Carrier−0.15

Svechnikov−0.17

Kotkaniemi−0.20

Hall−0.38

Aho−0.70

Defence

Nikishin0.00

Reilly−0.02

Miller−0.17

Walker−0.19

Gostisbehere−0.20

Chatfield−0.34

Goalie

Kochetkov−1.37

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Ehlers·Hall·Stankoven	6:02	10	7	10	41.2%	4	6	0	1	0.33	0.71	32.0%	−0.37	2	0	100%
Aho·Svechnikov·Blake	5:19	8	4	5	44.4%	0	4	0	1	0.12	0.41	22.6%	−0.29	0	0	—
Carrier·Robinson·Staal	4:51	8	6	6	50.0%	3	2	1	1	0.28	0.34	45.3%	−0.06	0	2	0%
Nadeau·Jankowski·Kotkaniemi	4:15	6	3	1	75.0%	1	0	0	0	0.11	0.03	81.2%	+0.09	1	0	100%
Ehlers·Nadeau·Staal	4:07	5	6	6	50.0%	3	3	0	1	0.17	0.32	34.7%	−0.15	0	0	—
Hall·Aho·Blake	2:37	4	0	4	0.0%	0	3	0	1	0.00	0.41	0.0%	−0.41	0	0	—
Jankowski·Kotkaniemi·Svechnikov	2:31	5	4	2	66.7%	1	1	1	0	0.14	0.16	46.5%	−0.02	1	1	50%
Carrier·Robinson·Stankoven	2:15	5	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Hall·Stankoven·Blake	1:57	2	0	5	0.0%	0	2	0	0	0.00	0.18	0.0%	−0.18	0	0	—
Ehlers·Aho·Svechnikov	1:05	2	0	2	0.0%	0	2	0	0	0.00	0.24	0.0%	−0.24	0	0	—
Robinson·Hall·Aho	1:03	2	0	4	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.15	0.0%	−0.15	0	0	—
Stankoven·Svechnikov·Blake	0:46	3	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	1	0%
Staal·Svechnikov·Blake	0:30	2	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.01	0.0%	−0.01	0	0	—
CAR 5v5	44:41		36	53	40.4%	15	25	2	5	1.31	3.22	29.0%	−1.91

Goalies

Pyotr Kochetkov

CAR · 59:06

Saves: 23/28
SV%: .821
xGA: 3.61
GSAx: −1.39

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	20/25	.800	3.22	−1.78
Power play	2/2	1.000	0.31	+0.31
Shorthanded	1/1	1.000	0.07	+0.07
High danger	3/8	.375	1.60	−3.40

Andrei Vasilevskiy

TBL · 60:00

Saves: 18/22
SV%: .818
xGA: 2.31
GSAx: −1.69

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	14/16	.875	1.39	−0.61
Power play	2/4	.500	0.88	−1.12
Shorthanded	2/2	1.000	0.04	+0.04
High danger	1/2	.500	0.59	−0.41

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Carolina Hurricanes

Minutes

21:28Miller
19:59Chatfield
19:45Nikishin
18:11Gostisbehere
18:05Walker
13:45Reilly

21:19Aho
19:36Ehlers
19:25Blake
18:12Svechnikov
16:22Stankoven
15:52Hall
15:08Staal
13:50Robinson
13:06Nadeau
10:55Jankowski
10:06Kotkaniemi
9:50Carrier

Matchups

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareCARTBL

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

GostisbehereD0 O6
ReillyD0 O1
NikishinD3 O2
WalkerD2 O0
MillerD3 O1
ChatfieldD5 O1
HallD0 O4
BlakeD0 O4
AhoD1 O4
KotkaniemiD1 O4
SvechnikovD1 O4
StankovenD1 O4
NadeauD0 O3
EhlersD0 O2
JankowskiD2 O2
StaalD5 O2
CarrierD3 O0
RobinsonD3 O0

Shift starts · darker = later period