BUF @ CAR 3–6 · 2025-11-08

Team	1	2	3	SOG
BUF	1	0	2	22
CAR	1	2	3	35

Story

– / 14

Result CAR 6–3Call No lean · CAR 58%xG 2.49–4.34 · deserved CAR 78%Swing Svechnikov +19 2nd 4:34Method

Goals and penalties with CAR win probability
Time	Event	CAR win before	CAR win after
1st 5:00	Goal CAR · S. Aho	58%	74%
1st 8:18	Goal BUF · O. Power	74%	58%
1st 11:07	BUF penalty · J. Bryson · hooking · 2 min
2nd 2:59	BUF penalty · C. Timmins · roughing · 2 min
2nd 4:34	Goal CAR · A. Svechnikov (PP)	57%	76%
2nd 11:39	Goal CAR · J. Kotkaniemi	78%	91%
2nd 11:59	CAR penalty · M. Reilly · holding the stick · 2 min
2nd 18:08	CAR penalty · C. Legault · interference · 2 min
2nd 18:08	BUF penalty · J. Greenway · roughing · 2 min
3rd 0:29	Goal CAR · E. Robinson	94%	99%
3rd 3:23	Goal BUF · A. Tuch	99%	95%
3rd 6:49	Goal BUF · T. Thompson	96%	84%
3rd 17:56	Goal CAR · S. Jarvis (EN)	96%	99%
3rd 18:32	Goal CAR · C. Legault (EN)	99%	99%

On ice · final horn

BUF5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
19P. KrebsC	0:42	16:23	21	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	10-8
12J. GreenwayL	0:44	15:04	23	0	0	0	4	4	2	1	1	–
91J. DoanR	0:37	15:15	22	0	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	–
4B. ByramD	0:21	21:30	28	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	2	–
21C. TimminsD	0:43	20:22	27	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	1	–
34A. LyonG		58:47	SA33GA4SV%.879xGA2.92GSAx−1.08

CAR5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
22L. StankovenC	0:59	12:18	15	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	1	3-7
27N. EhlersL	0:41	11:36	17	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	–
53J. BlakeR	0:56	12:31	16	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0-1
6M. ReillyD	0:56	21:05	32	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	3	–
62C. LegaultD	0:54	18:21	31	1	1	2	2	5	2	2	2	–
52P. KochetkovG		59:01	SA22GA3SV%.864xGA2.49GSAx−0.51

Goals

1st
Sebastian Aho(1)
A. Svechnikov (1)
xG 0.08snapClip(opens nhl.com)
0–1 CAR1st 05:00+15.774%
Owen Power(1)
N. Ostlund (1)
xG 0.11snapClip(opens nhl.com)
1–1 Tied1st 08:18+16.242%
2nd
Andrei Svechnikov(1)PP
K. Miller (1), N. Ehlers (1)
xG 0.04slapClip(opens nhl.com)
1–2 CAR2nd 04:34+19.476%
Jesperi Kotkaniemi(1)
J. Nystrom (1), T. Hall (1)
xG 0.09slapClip(opens nhl.com)
1–3 CAR2nd 11:39+13.491%
3rd
Eric Robinson(1)
J. Kotkaniemi (1), C. Legault (1)
xG 0.09snapClip(opens nhl.com)
1–4 CAR3rd 00:29+4.699%
Alex Tuch(1)
T. Thompson (1)
xG 0.03snapClip(opens nhl.com)
2–4 CAR3rd 03:23+4.05%
Tage Thompson(1)
R. McLeod (1), A. Tuch (1)
xG 0.18snapClip(opens nhl.com)
3–4 CAR3rd 06:49+12.216%
Seth Jarvis(1)EN
J. Staal (1)
xG 0.47snapClip(opens nhl.com)
3–5 CAR3rd 17:56+3.499%
Charles Alexis Legault(1)EN
S. Aho (1)
xG 0.48snapClip(opens nhl.com)
3–6 CAR3rd 18:32+0.099%

Shots

BUF2.49 xG35 unblocked · 15 blocked35 unblocked · 15 blocked

CAR4.34 xG53 unblocked · 19 blocked53 unblocked · 19 blocked

GoalSavedMissedBlockedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

BUFCAR3Goals62.49xG4.3422Shots3535Unblocked5350Attempts724High danger60/1Power play1/231Faceoffs3321Hits2519Blocks157Takeaways725Giveaways246PIM4

Skaters

Player

Player
23M. SamuelssonMattias SamuelssonD	23:35	0	0	0	2	3	0.02	−0.02	1	3	0	1	—	0	+1
25O. PowerOwen PowerD	22:08	1	0	1	2	5	0.13	+0.87	1	1	0	0	—	0	-1
4B. ByramBowen ByramD	21:30	0	0	0	2	4	0.38	−0.38	0	2	0	3	—	0	-3
21C. TimminsConor TimminsD	20:22	0	0	0	1	5	0.03	−0.03	0	1	0	3	—	2	0
71R. McLeodRyan McLeodC	19:23	0	1	1	2	3	0.27	−0.27	0	0	0	2	56%	0	0
72T. ThompsonTage ThompsonC	18:59	1	1	2	4	6	0.66	+0.34	2	1	0	3	25%	0	0
89A. TuchAlex TuchR	18:37	1	1	2	1	3	0.11	+0.89	3	1	1	0	—	0	0
8M. KesselringMichael KesselringD	17:29	0	0	0	0	3	0.02	−0.02	1	1	0	4	—	0	-2
22J. QuinnJack QuinnR	17:17	0	0	0	1	2	0.03	−0.03	2	1	1	1	0%	0	-2
19P. KrebsPeyton KrebsC	16:23	0	0	0	1	3	0.08	−0.08	1	0	1	2	56%	0	-2
91J. DoanJosh DoanR	15:15	0	0	0	0	4	0.10	−0.10	2	0	1	1	—	0	-1
12J. GreenwayJordan GreenwayL	15:04	0	0	0	4	4	0.26	−0.26	1	1	0	0	—	2	-2
48T. KozakTyson KozakC	14:11	0	0	0	2	3	0.37	−0.37	3	2	0	0	56%	0	0
63I. RosenIsak RosenR	13:54	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	0	0	1	0	—	0	-1
78J. BrysonJacob BrysonD	13:22	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	0	0	1	1	—	2	+1
29B. MalenstynBeck MalenstynL	10:25	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	2	0	0	1	—	0	0
44J. DunneJosh DunneC	8:53	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	2	2	1	2	—	0	0
86N. OstlundNoah OstlundC	8:51	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0	25%	0	0
BUF total		3	4	7	22	50	2.49	+0.51	21	16	7	24	48%	6

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Thompson+1.01

Tuch+0.48

Ostlund+0.31

McLeod+0.26

Kozak0.00

Dunne−0.06

Doan−0.11

Greenway−0.15

Malenstyn−0.23

Quinn−0.34

Rosen−0.40

Krebs−0.42

Defence

Power+0.39

Samuelsson+0.19

Kesselring−0.16

Byram−0.18

Bryson−0.25

Timmins−0.28

Goalie

Lyon−1.07

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
McLeod·Thompson·Tuch	12:53	22	11	13	45.8%	7	7	2	1	0.93	0.57	61.8%	+0.35	4	3	57%
Greenway·Kozak·Doan	10:17	18	13	11	54.2%	6	4	0	0	0.46	0.43	51.8%	+0.03	3	5	38%
Malenstyn·Krebs·Dunne	6:48	11	2	8	20.0%	0	3	0	0	0.00	0.09	0.0%	−0.09	1	4	20%
Ostlund·Quinn·Rosen	6:48	12	2	4	33.3%	1	3	1	1	0.11	0.23	33.4%	−0.11	2	0	100%
Krebs·Quinn·Rosen	4:22	6	4	7	36.4%	2	3	0	0	0.12	0.38	23.7%	−0.26	0	1	0%
Occasional · 5 groups
Malenstyn·Krebs·Quinn	0:56	1	2	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.01	0.00	100.0%	+0.01	0	0	—
Greenway·Krebs·Doan	0:47	4	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.10	0.0%	−0.10	0	0	—
Kozak·Thompson·Doan	0:45	4	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Malenstyn·Dunne·Kozak	0:44	1	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Greenway·Krebs·Quinn	0:35	4	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.09	0.0%	−0.09	0	0	—
BUF 5v5	50:13		40	54	42.6%	19	29	3	3	1.94	2.51	43.5%	−0.58

Goalies

Alex Lyon

BUF · 58:47

Saves: 29/33
SV%: .879
xGA: 2.92
GSAx: −1.08

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	27/30	.900	2.68	−0.32
Power play	2/3	.667	0.23	−0.77
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	3/3	1.000	0.58	+0.58

Pyotr Kochetkov

CAR · 59:01

Saves: 19/22
SV%: .864
xGA: 2.49
GSAx: −0.51

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	18/21	.857	2.36	−0.64
Power play	0/0	—	0.01	+0.01
Shorthanded	1/1	1.000	0.13	+0.13
High danger	2/3	.667	0.92	−0.08

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Buffalo Sabres

Minutes

23:35Samuelsson
22:08Power
21:30Byram
20:22Timmins
17:29Kesselring
13:22Bryson

19:23McLeod
18:59Thompson
18:37Tuch
17:17Quinn
16:23Krebs
15:15Doan
15:04Greenway
14:11Kozak
13:54Rosen
10:25Malenstyn
8:53Dunne
8:51Ostlund

Matchups

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareBUFCAR

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

PowerD2 O8
TimminsD3 O2
BrysonD3 O1
ByramD4 O2
KesselringD5 O2
SamuelssonD6 O1
QuinnD1 O4
OstlundD0 O3
ThompsonD4 O6
TuchD4 O5
RosenD1 O2
McLeodD4 O4
KrebsD4 O2
DoanD5 O3
GreenwayD5 O2
MalenstynD4 O1
DunneD3 O0
KozakD6 O2

Shift starts · darker = later period