CAR @ LAK 4–3 · 2025-10-18

Team	1	2	3	OT	SOG
CAR	2	1	0	1	40
LAK	0	2	1	0	28

Story

– / 11

Result CAR 4–3 OTxG 4.01–2.40 · deserved CAR 75%Swing Jarvis +50 OT 1:45Method

Goals and penalties with LAK win probability
Time	Event	LAK win before	LAK win after
1st 0:12	Goal CAR · J. Staal	50%	34%
1st 0:41	LAK penalty · A. Kempe · slashing · 2 min
1st 3:58	Goal CAR · J. Staal	34%	20%
2nd 3:43	Goal CAR · J. Kotkaniemi	15%	6%
2nd 4:35	Goal LAK · T. Moore	6%	15%
2nd 15:55	CAR penalty · J. Blake · slashing · 2 min
2nd 16:04	Goal LAK · A. Kuzmenko (PP)	10%	26%
2nd 18:46	LAK penalty · K. Fiala · holding · 2 min
2nd 19:21	LAK penalty · W. Foegele · tripping · 2 min
3rd 11:02	Goal LAK · K. Fiala	15%	50%
OT 1:45	Goal CAR · S. Jarvis	50%	0%

On ice · final horn

CAR3 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
20S. AhoC	1:23	21:29	21	0	0	0	3	5	0	4	3	9-14
24S. JarvisC	1:16	21:05	21	0	0	0	5	7	0	0	2	0-1
19K. MillerD	0:38	27:36	30	0	1	1	3	7	0	1	1	0-1
32B. BussiG		61:45	SA28GA3SV%.893xGA2.40GSAx−0.60

LAK3 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
22K. FialaL	0:33	19:47	25	1	0	1	2	4	2	2	0	–
55Q. ByfieldR	0:33	19:17	28	0	1	1	1	2	0	1	2	10-13
92B. ClarkeD	0:39	14:36	20	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	–
31A. ForsbergG		61:45	SA39GA3SV%.923xGA3.83GSAx+0.83

Goals

1st
Jordan Staal(1)
W. Carrier (1), J. Martinook (1)
xG 0.16snapClip(opens nhl.com)
1–0 CAR1st 00:12+15.866%
Jordan Staal(2)
M. Reilly (1), J. Chatfield (1)
xG 0.22slapClip(opens nhl.com)
2–0 CAR1st 03:58+13.680%
2nd
Jesperi Kotkaniemi(1)
K. Miller (1)
xG 0.15backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
3–0 CAR2nd 03:43+8.794%
Trevor Moore(1)
P. Danault (1), J. Edmundson (1)
xG 0.14snapClip(opens nhl.com)
3–1 CAR2nd 04:35+8.615%
Andrei Kuzmenko(1)PP
Q. Byfield (1), A. Kempe (1)
xG 0.39wristClip(opens nhl.com)
3–2 CAR2nd 16:04+15.626%
3rd
Kevin Fiala(1)
A. Kempe (2)
xG 0.08snapClip(opens nhl.com)
3–3 Tied3rd 11:02+34.650%
OT
Seth Jarvis(1)
S. Aho (1), K. Miller (2)
xG 0.18wristClip(opens nhl.com)
4–3 CAROT 01:45+50.0100%

Shots

CAR4.01 xG56 unblocked · 21 blocked56 unblocked · 21 blocked

LAK2.40 xG41 unblocked · 20 blocked41 unblocked · 20 blocked

GoalSavedMissedBlockedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

CARLAK4Goals34.01xG2.4040Shots2856Unblocked4177Attempts616High danger30/3Power play1/146Faceoffs2818Hits2920Blocks217Takeaways416Giveaways212PIM6

Skaters

Player

Player
19K. MillerK'Andre MillerD	27:36	0	2	2	3	7	0.10	−0.10	1	1	2	1	0%	0	+2
26S. WalkerSean WalkerD	26:03	0	0	0	6	10	0.33	−0.33	0	1	0	3	—	0	0
20S. AhoSebastian AhoC	21:29	0	1	1	3	5	0.23	−0.23	4	3	0	3	39%	0	+1
5J. ChatfieldJalen ChatfieldD	21:10	0	1	1	0	2	0.07	−0.07	1	2	0	0	—	0	+1
24S. JarvisSeth JarvisC	21:05	1	0	1	6	8	0.71	+0.29	0	2	0	0	0%	0	+1
21A. NikishinAlexander NikishinD	20:23	0	0	0	0	3	0.00	0.00	3	0	1	2	—	0	0
27N. EhlersNikolaj EhlersL	20:13	0	0	0	5	9	0.55	−0.55	0	2	0	2	100%	0	0
6M. ReillyMike ReillyD	18:49	0	1	1	0	4	0.04	−0.04	1	5	0	0	—	0	0
53J. BlakeJackson BlakeR	18:29	0	0	0	2	5	0.21	−0.21	0	1	0	2	—	2	-1
28W. CarrierWilliam CarrierL	14:55	0	1	1	1	3	0.06	−0.06	1	0	0	1	—	0	+3
22L. StankovenLogan StankovenC	14:11	0	0	0	2	3	0.26	−0.26	0	0	2	0	67%	0	-1
11J. StaalJordan StaalC	13:59	2	0	2	4	5	0.57	+1.43	2	1	0	1	91%	0	+2
71T. HallTaylor HallL	13:56	0	0	0	2	3	0.27	−0.27	0	1	0	0	—	0	-1
50E. RobinsonEric RobinsonL	12:37	0	0	0	0	1	0.06	−0.06	2	0	0	0	0%	0	0
48J. MartinookJordan MartinookL	12:17	0	1	1	2	2	0.23	−0.23	0	0	0	1	—	0	+2
82J. KotkaniemiJesperi KotkaniemiC	12:06	1	0	1	2	4	0.25	+0.75	2	1	1	0	62%	0	0
37A. SvechnikovAndrei SvechnikovR	11:42	0	0	0	2	2	0.07	−0.07	1	0	0	0	—	0	-1
4S. GostisbehereShayne GostisbehereD	4:06	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	0	0	1	0	—	0	0
CAR total		4	7	11	40	77	4.01	−0.01	18	20	7	16	62%	2

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Staal+1.37

Kotkaniemi+0.58

Jarvis+0.56

Carrier+0.40

Aho+0.27

Martinook+0.12

Stankoven−0.10

Hall−0.16

Robinson−0.26

Svechnikov−0.28

Blake−0.28

Ehlers−0.31

Defence

Reilly+0.68

Miller+0.33

Chatfield+0.16

Gostisbehere−0.07

Walker−0.14

Nikishin−0.37

Goalie

Bussi−0.59

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Ehlers·Aho·Jarvis	13:11	17	17	24	41.5%	11	9	0	0	1.02	0.95	51.9%	+0.07	2	3	40%
Hall·Stankoven·Blake	11:44	17	13	10	56.5%	5	3	0	1	0.65	0.47	57.9%	+0.18	4	1	80%
Carrier·Martinook·Staal	10:40	22	16	6	72.7%	9	3	2	0	0.97	0.12	89.0%	+0.85	4	6	40%
Robinson·Kotkaniemi·Svechnikov	9:35	16	12	9	57.1%	1	6	0	1	0.16	0.21	43.2%	−0.05	3	2	60%
Occasional · 8 groups
Carrier·Robinson·Staal	0:50	2	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Ehlers·Robinson·Aho	0:43	3	1	2	33.3%	1	1	0	0	0.12	0.01	91.8%	+0.11	0	0	—
Carrier·Staal·Blake	0:42	2	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Carrier·Aho·Jarvis	0:42	3	1	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.03	0.00	100.0%	+0.03	0	0	—
Carrier·Martinook·Kotkaniemi	0:40	3	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.02	0.0%	−0.02	0	0	—
Carrier·Staal·Jarvis	0:35	3	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Hall·Stankoven·Svechnikov	0:33	1	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Hall·Aho·Blake	0:32	3	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
CAR 5v5	55:16		65	58	52.8%	33	26	3	2	3.41	1.98	63.2%	+1.43

Goalies

Brandon Bussi

CAR · 61:45

Saves: 25/28
SV%: .893
xGA: 2.40
GSAx: −0.60

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	24/26	.923	1.98	−0.02
Power play	0/1	.000	0.39	−0.61
Shorthanded	1/1	1.000	0.02	+0.02
High danger	2/3	.667	0.79	−0.21

Anton Forsberg

LAK · 61:45

Saves: 36/40
SV%: .900
xGA: 4.01
GSAx: +0.01

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	30/34	.882	3.59	−0.41
Power play	6/6	1.000	0.42	+0.42
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	1/5	.200	1.06	−2.94

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Carolina Hurricanes

Minutes

27:36Miller
26:03Walker
21:10Chatfield
20:23Nikishin
18:49Reilly
4:06Gostisbehere

21:29Aho
21:05Jarvis
20:13Ehlers
18:29Blake
14:55Carrier
14:11Stankoven
13:59Staal
13:56Hall
12:37Robinson
12:17Martinook
12:06Kotkaniemi
11:42Svechnikov

Matchups

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareCARLAK

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

GostisbehereD0 O2
ChatfieldD3 O4
MillerD3 O4
NikishinD3 O4
ReillyD3 O3
WalkerD7 O4
StankovenD1 O4
BlakeD1 O4
HallD1 O3
SvechnikovD1 O3
EhlersD3 O4
RobinsonD1 O2
KotkaniemiD2 O3
JarvisD3 O4
AhoD3 O3
CarrierD6 O4
MartinookD7 O4
StaalD7 O3

Shift starts · darker = later period