TBL @ CAR 4–5 · 2026-02-26

Team	1	2	3	SOG
TBL	2	2	0	28
CAR	3	1	1	33

Story

– / 13

Result CAR 5–4Call No lean · CAR 63%xG 3.38–3.16 · deserved TBL 54%Swing Aho +28 3rd 7:17Method

Goals and penalties with CAR win probability
Time	Event	CAR win before	CAR win after
1st 1:43	Goal CAR · N. Ehlers	63%	77%
1st 2:56	Goal CAR · L. Stankoven	77%	88%
1st 6:41	Goal CAR · T. Hall	88%	95%
1st 16:30	Goal TBL · B. Hagel	96%	89%
1st 17:05	Goal TBL · N. Kucherov	89%	78%
2nd 1:58	Goal TBL · D. James	79%	61%
2nd 7:21	Goal CAR · S. Jarvis	60%	79%
2nd 13:56	CAR penalty · S. Aho · holding the stick · 2 min
2nd 14:02	Goal TBL · B. Point (PP)	81%	59%
2nd 15:33	TBL penalty · N. Kucherov · slashing · 2 min
3rd 2:34	CAR penalty · J. Blake · holding · 2 min
3rd 6:43	TBL penalty · G. Goncalves · tripping · 2 min
3rd 7:17	Goal CAR · S. Aho (PP)	57%	86%

On ice · final horn

TBL6 skaters · net empty

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
37Y. GourdeC	0:38	16:04	20	0	0	0	3	4	0	4	0	7-7
59J. GuentzelC	2:57	22:03	23	0	3	3	4	9	0	1	1	5-3
22O. BjorkstrandR	1:04	13:01	17	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	–
86N. KucherovR	2:57	25:07	27	1	0	1	2	8	2	0	1	–
43D. RaddyshD	2:57	26:01	26	0	1	1	4	5	0	0	5	–
77V. HedmanD	0:35	14:21	18	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	–

CAR5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
11J. StaalC	0:35	15:19	23	0	0	0	1	3	0	3	1	6-11
27N. EhlersL	0:31	14:58	19	1	0	1	3	5	0	0	0	–
48J. MartinookL	0:58	14:31	21	0	1	1	1	2	0	1	1	–
19K. MillerD	1:00	20:42	26	0	1	1	1	2	0	5	3	–
26S. WalkerD	0:58	18:12	25	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	2	–
32B. BussiG		60:00	SA28GA4SV%.857xGA3.38GSAx−0.62

Goals

1st
Nikolaj Ehlers(1)
K. Miller (1), J. Martinook (1)
xG 0.08snapClip(opens nhl.com)
0–1 CAR1st 01:43+14.277%
Logan Stankoven(1)
T. Hall (1), J. Chatfield (1)
xG 0.21snapClip(opens nhl.com)
0–2 CAR1st 02:56+10.588%
Taylor Hall(1)
J. Blake (1), L. Stankoven (1)
xG 0.15wristClip(opens nhl.com)
0–3 CAR1st 06:41+6.495%
Brandon Hagel(1)
S. Sabourin (1), J. Guentzel (1)
xG 0.08snapClip(opens nhl.com)
1–3 CAR1st 16:30+6.311%
Nikita Kucherov(1)
B. Point (1), J. Moser (1)
xG 0.13snapClip(opens nhl.com)
2–3 CAR1st 17:05+11.422%
2nd
Dominic James(1)
J. Guentzel (2), R. McDonagh (1)
xG 0.19snapClip(opens nhl.com)
3–3 Tied2nd 01:58+17.639%
Seth Jarvis(1)
A. Svechnikov (1), M. Jankowski (1)
xG 0.14wristClip(opens nhl.com)
3–4 CAR2nd 07:21+19.079%
Brayden Point(1)PP
J. Guentzel (3), D. Raddysh (1)
xG 0.18snapClip(opens nhl.com)
4–4 Tied2nd 14:02+21.141%
3rd
Sebastian Aho(1)PP
S. Jarvis (1), A. Svechnikov (2)
xG 0.02slapClip(opens nhl.com)
4–5 CAR3rd 07:17+28.186%

Shots

TBL3.38 xG40 unblocked · 17 blocked40 unblocked · 17 blocked

CAR3.16 xG41 unblocked · 21 blocked41 unblocked · 21 blocked

GoalSavedMissedBlockedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

TBLCAR4Goals53.38xG3.1628Shots3340Unblocked4157Attempts628High danger41/2Power play1/236Faceoffs2915Hits2321Blocks176Takeaways720Giveaways204PIM4

Skaters

Player

Player
43D. RaddyshDarren RaddyshD	26:01	0	1	1	4	5	0.17	−0.17	0	5	0	1	—	0	-1
86N. KucherovNikita KucherovR	25:07	1	0	1	2	8	0.25	+0.75	0	1	0	3	—	2	0
21B. PointBrayden PointC	22:06	1	1	2	2	4	0.68	+0.32	1	0	1	0	50%	0	0
59J. GuentzelJake GuentzelC	22:03	0	3	3	4	9	0.61	−0.61	1	1	0	0	63%	0	+1
38B. HagelBrandon HagelL	20:42	1	0	1	2	3	0.16	+0.84	0	1	1	0	0%	0	0
90J. MoserJ.J. MoserD	19:42	0	1	1	2	3	0.04	−0.04	1	0	1	4	—	0	0
17D. JamesDominic JamesC	16:55	1	0	1	4	6	0.63	+0.37	0	0	2	0	82%	0	0
37Y. GourdeYanni GourdeC	16:04	0	0	0	3	4	0.19	−0.19	4	0	0	1	50%	0	-2
27R. McDonaghRyan McDonaghD	15:43	0	1	1	0	5	0.14	−0.14	0	0	0	3	—	0	+2
81E. CernakErik CernakD	15:26	0	0	0	2	2	0.09	−0.09	0	1	0	1	—	0	+2
93G. GoncalvesGage GoncalvesC	14:55	0	0	0	2	2	0.04	−0.04	1	0	1	3	—	2	0
28Z. GirgensonsZemgus GirgensonsC	14:53	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	2	1	0	0	40%	0	-1
77V. HedmanVictor HedmanD	14:21	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	3	0	1	—	0	-1
29P. HolmbergPontus HolmbergR	14:01	0	0	0	1	2	0.29	−0.29	1	0	0	0	—	0	-1
51C. D'AstousCharle-Edouard D'AstousD	13:19	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	0	2	0	2	—	0	-3
22O. BjorkstrandOliver BjorkstrandR	13:01	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	−0.09	0	4	0	0	—	0	0
67D. CarlileDeclan CarlileD	11:04	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	−0.01	2	1	0	1	—	0	-1
46S. SabourinScott SabourinR	5:00	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0.00	2	0	0	0	—	0	0
TBL total		4	8	12	28	57	3.38	+0.62	15	20	6	20	55%	4

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Guentzel+1.18

Point+0.96

James+0.57

Hagel+0.50

Sabourin+0.41

Kucherov+0.30

Bjorkstrand+0.12

Holmberg−0.23

Girgensons−0.27

Gourde−0.36

Goncalves−0.53

Defence

Raddysh+0.42

McDonagh+0.19

Carlile+0.17

Cernak+0.14

Hedman+0.07

Moser−0.05

D'Astous−0.22

Goalie

Johansson−2.27

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Point·Goncalves·Kucherov	11:22	18	9	12	42.9%	4	9	1	1	0.44	0.64	40.7%	−0.20	5	1	83%
Hagel·James·Guentzel	10:22	13	7	8	46.7%	3	4	1	1	0.62	0.21	74.8%	+0.41	1	4	20%
Girgensons·Gourde·Holmberg	9:24	14	11	12	47.8%	5	7	0	0	0.49	0.39	55.5%	+0.10	3	3	50%
Occasional · 13 groups
Girgensons·Bjorkstrand·Sabourin	1:56	3	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.15	0.0%	−0.15	0	1	0%
Point·Bjorkstrand·Kucherov	1:38	5	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Point·Guentzel·Kucherov	1:18	2	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.01	0.00	100.0%	+0.01	0	0	—
Gourde·Bjorkstrand·Holmberg	1:06	3	2	0	100.0%	2	0	0	0	0.09	0.00	100.0%	+0.09	0	0	—
Hagel·Point·Kucherov	1:05	5	1	2	33.3%	0	0	0	0	0.06	0.00	100.0%	+0.06	1	0	100%
Hagel·James·Holmberg	0:54	2	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Hagel·Guentzel·Kucherov	0:48	2	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Gourde·Goncalves·Kucherov	0:44	3	1	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.04	0.00	100.0%	+0.04	0	0	—
Girgensons·Gourde·Kucherov	0:40	2	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Point·Goncalves·Holmberg	0:35	3	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Hagel·James·Goncalves	0:34	1	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Girgensons·Gourde·Sabourin	0:32	2	0	2	0.0%	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.15	0.0%	−0.15	0	0	—
Hagel·Guentzel·Sabourin	0:32	2	1	0	100.0%	1	0	1	0	0.08	0.00	100.0%	+0.08	0	0	—
TBL 5v5	52:23		46	48	48.9%	22	27	3	4	2.31	2.48	48.3%	−0.16

Goalies

Jonas Johansson

TBL · 57:03

Saves: 28/33
SV%: .848
xGA: 2.72
GSAx: −2.28

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	23/27	.852	2.48	−1.52
Power play	5/6	.833	0.24	−0.76
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	1/2	.500	0.60	−0.40

Brandon Bussi

CAR · 60:00

Saves: 24/28
SV%: .857
xGA: 3.38
GSAx: −0.62

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	22/25	.880	2.71	−0.29
Power play	1/2	.500	0.64	−0.36
Shorthanded	1/1	1.000	0.03	+0.03
High danger	3/5	.600	1.51	−0.49

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Tampa Bay Lightning

Minutes

26:01Raddysh
19:42Moser
15:43McDonagh
15:26Cernak
14:21Hedman
13:19D'Astous
11:04Carlile

25:07Kucherov
22:06Point
22:03Guentzel
20:42Hagel
16:55James
16:04Gourde
14:55Goncalves
14:53Girgensons
14:01Holmberg
13:01Bjorkstrand
5:00Sabourin

Matchups

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareTBLCAR

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

RaddyshD3 O5
MoserD2 O4
McDonaghD2 O2
CernakD3 O2
D'AstousD3 O1
HedmanD4 O1
CarlileD4 O1
KucherovD1 O8
PointD1 O8
GoncalvesD1 O6
GourdeD3 O3
BjorkstrandD3 O3
HolmbergD4 O4
GirgensonsD5 O4
SabourinD1 O0
GuentzelD6 O4
HagelD5 O3
JamesD4 O2

Shift starts · darker = later period