BUF @ TBL 3–4 · 2026-02-03

Team	1	2	3	OT	SOG
BUF	1	0	2	0	26
TBL	1	0	2	1	35

Story

– / 12

Result TBL 4–3 OTCall No lean · TBL 68%xG 2.49–3.04 · deserved TBL 60%Swing Raddysh +56 3rd 19:34Method

Goals and penalties with TBL win probability
Time	Event	TBL win before	TBL win after
1st 1:10	BUF penalty · N. Ostlund · holding · 2 min
1st 10:24	Goal TBL · N. Kucherov	67%	83%
1st 10:35	TBL penalty · G. Goncalves · holding · 2 min
1st 13:55	TBL penalty · J. Moser · tripping · 2 min
1st 16:53	Goal BUF · M. Samuelsson	83%	66%
3rd 4:08	Goal BUF · M. Samuelsson	61%	27%
3rd 7:33	BUF penalty · B. Byram · hooking · 2 min
3rd 8:53	Goal TBL · O. Bjorkstrand (PP)	22%	60%
3rd 12:55	TBL penalty · C. Douglas · hooking · 2 min
3rd 14:53	Goal BUF · J. Doan (PP)	58%	12%
3rd 19:34	Goal TBL · D. Raddysh	1%	57%
OT 4:45	Goal TBL · J. Guentzel	57%	100%

On ice · final horn

BUF3 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
19P. KrebsC	0:44	17:47	23	0	0	0	1	6	0	3	0	0-3
89A. TuchR	0:44	22:38	29	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	1-1
26R. DahlinD	0:54	27:47	34	0	1	1	7	9	0	0	1	–
92C. EllisG		64:24	SA34GA3SV%.912xGA2.93GSAx−0.07

TBL3 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
59J. GuentzelC	1:10	26:07	25	0	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	12-14
86N. KucherovR	0:40	22:24	23	1	2	3	7	10	0	0	1	–
90J. MoserD	0:44	23:51	25	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	3	–
88A. VasilevskiyG		63:33	SA26GA3SV%.885xGA2.49GSAx−0.51

Goals

1st
Nikita Kucherov(1)
J. Guentzel (1)
xG 0.07wristClip(opens nhl.com)
0–1 TBL1st 10:24+16.083%
Mattias Samuelsson(1)
Unassisted
xG 0.03wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–1 Tied1st 16:53+17.234%
3rd
Mattias Samuelsson(2)
R. McLeod (1), J. Quinn (1)
xG 0.04wristClip(opens nhl.com)
2–1 BUF3rd 04:08+33.673%
Oliver Bjorkstrand(1)PP
D. Raddysh (1), N. Kucherov (1)
xG 0.19snapClip(opens nhl.com)
2–2 Tied3rd 08:53+38.160%
Josh Doan(1)PP
T. Thompson (1), R. Dahlin (1)
xG 0.14deflectedClip(opens nhl.com)
3–2 BUF3rd 14:53+46.488%
Darren Raddysh(1)6v5
N. Kucherov (2), B. Hagel (1)
xG 0.06slapClip(opens nhl.com)
3–3 Tied3rd 19:34+56.057%
OT
Jake Guentzel(1)
N. Kucherov (3), J. Moser (1)
xG 0.12snapClip(opens nhl.com)
3–4 TBLOT 04:45+42.9100%

Shots

BUF2.49 xG38 unblocked · 11 blocked38 unblocked · 11 blocked

TBL3.04 xG49 unblocked · 10 blocked49 unblocked · 10 blocked

GoalSavedMissedBlockedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

BUFTBL3Goals42.49xG3.0426Shots3538Unblocked4949Attempts591High danger51/3Power play1/230Faceoffs3113Hits2610Blocks119Takeaways622Giveaways154PIM6

Skaters

Player

Player
26R. DahlinRasmus DahlinD	27:47	0	1	1	7	9	0.33	−0.33	0	1	3	5	—	0	0
23M. SamuelssonMattias SamuelssonD	24:01	2	0	2	3	3	0.10	+1.90	2	0	0	1	—	0	+1
4B. ByramBowen ByramD	23:37	0	0	0	0	2	0.05	−0.05	0	1	0	1	—	2	-1
89A. TuchAlex TuchR	22:38	0	0	0	1	2	0.16	−0.16	0	1	1	1	50%	0	-2
72T. ThompsonTage ThompsonC	22:09	0	1	1	5	7	0.53	−0.53	1	0	0	2	50%	0	-1
25O. PowerOwen PowerD	21:51	0	0	0	1	2	0.11	−0.11	0	2	1	2	—	0	-1
71R. McLeodRyan McLeodC	19:31	0	1	1	2	3	0.36	−0.36	0	1	2	3	47%	0	0
22J. QuinnJack QuinnR	17:50	0	1	1	2	3	0.09	−0.09	1	0	1	1	—	0	0
19P. KrebsPeyton KrebsC	17:47	0	0	0	1	6	0.42	−0.42	3	0	0	0	0%	0	-2
17J. ZuckerJason ZuckerL	17:10	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	1	60%	0	0
91J. DoanJosh DoanR	16:29	1	0	1	1	3	0.28	+0.72	0	0	0	1	—	0	0
86N. OstlundNoah OstlundC	14:36	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	1	50%	2	0
94K. HeleniusKonsta HeleniusC	13:47	0	0	0	1	3	0.05	−0.05	3	1	0	0	50%	0	+1
48T. KozakTyson KozakC	12:25	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1	1	1	1	57%	0	+1
73Z. MetsaZach MetsaD	11:12	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	1	0	0	—	0	0
78J. BrysonJacob BrysonD	11:01	0	0	0	1	2	0.01	−0.01	0	0	0	1	—	0	0
29B. MalenstynBeck MalenstynL	9:08	0	0	0	1	2	0.01	−0.01	2	0	0	1	100%	0	+1
63I. RosenIsak RosenR	8:17	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0	—	0	0
BUF total		3	4	7	26	49	2.49	+0.51	13	9	9	22	49%	4

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Doan+0.48

McLeod+0.22

Thompson+0.21

Quinn−0.09

Helenius−0.11

Rosen−0.13

Malenstyn−0.19

Kozak−0.20

Krebs−0.33

Zucker−0.37

Tuch−0.38

Ostlund−0.58

Defence

Samuelsson+0.71

Dahlin+0.18

Metsa−0.14

Power−0.17

Bryson−0.21

Byram−0.36

Goalie

Ellis−0.93

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Krebs·Thompson·Tuch	11:46	18	6	10	37.5%	1	6	0	0	0.34	0.41	45.2%	−0.07	2	1	67%
Zucker·McLeod·Quinn	10:28	18	4	17	19.0%	2	8	1	1	0.13	0.84	13.2%	−0.71	5	3	63%
Ostlund·Helenius·Doan	8:04	14	3	9	25.0%	1	7	0	0	0.06	0.39	14.2%	−0.32	3	3	50%
Malenstyn·Kozak·Rosen	5:09	10	4	2	66.7%	2	0	0	0	0.04	0.01	81.8%	+0.03	0	1	0%
Occasional · 7 groups
Krebs·McLeod·Tuch	1:14	5	2	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.20	0.00	100.0%	+0.20	0	0	—
Malenstyn·Kozak·Helenius	1:07	2	1	1	50.0%	1	0	1	0	0.03	0.00	100.0%	+0.03	0	0	—
Krebs·Thompson·Doan	0:47	1	0	2	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.16	0.0%	−0.16	0	0	—
Ostlund·Helenius·Rosen	0:46	3	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Krebs·Thompson·Helenius	0:43	4	1	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.01	0.00	100.0%	+0.01	0	0	—
Kozak·Ostlund·Helenius	0:43	3	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Zucker·Thompson·Tuch	0:42	5	0	0	—	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
BUF 5v5	49:09		29	45	39.2%	13	24	2	1	1.08	2.14	33.5%	−1.06

Goalies

Colten Ellis

BUF · 64:24

Saves: 31/35
SV%: .886
xGA: 3.04
GSAx: −0.96

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	25/28	.893	2.57	−0.43
Power play	4/5	.800	0.44	−0.56
Shorthanded	2/2	1.000	0.04	+0.04
High danger	2/3	.667	0.90	−0.10

Andrei Vasilevskiy

TBL · 63:33

Saves: 23/26
SV%: .885
xGA: 2.49
GSAx: −0.51

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	16/18	.889	1.41	−0.59
Power play	7/8	.875	1.08	+0.08
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	1/1	1.000	0.23	+0.23

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Buffalo Sabres

Minutes

27:47Dahlin
24:01Samuelsson
23:37Byram
21:51Power
11:12Metsa
11:01Bryson

22:38Tuch
22:09Thompson
19:31McLeod
17:50Quinn
17:47Krebs
17:10Zucker
16:29Doan
14:36Ostlund
13:47Helenius
12:25Kozak
9:08Malenstyn
8:17Rosen

Matchups

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareBUFTBL

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

BrysonD1 O2
DahlinD7 O7
MetsaD1 O1
SamuelssonD4 O3
PowerD3 O1
ByramD5 O1
ZuckerD2 O7
QuinnD4 O7
ThompsonD2 O4
KrebsD2 O3
DoanD3 O4
TuchD4 O4
McLeodD5 O5
RosenD1 O1
OstlundD3 O3
HeleniusD3 O3
MalenstynD2 O0
KozakD3 O0

Shift starts · darker = later period