BUF @ CAR 1–2 · 2026-01-19

Team	1	2	3	SOG
BUF	1	0	0	18
CAR	1	0	1	29

Story

– / 10

Result CAR 2–1Call No lean · CAR 65%xG 2.37–3.16 · deserved CAR 64%Swing Jarvis +26 3rd 2:10Method

Goals and penalties with CAR win probability
Time	Event	CAR win before	CAR win after
1st 1:33	Goal BUF · R. Dahlin	65%	48%
1st 7:04	Goal CAR · A. Svechnikov	46%	64%
2nd 7:15	CAR penalty · A. Svechnikov · roughing · 2 min
2nd 11:35	CAR penalty · A. Svechnikov · roughing · 2 min
2nd 11:35	BUF penalty · R. Dahlin · roughing · 2 min
2nd 16:10	BUF penalty · R. Dahlin · hooking · 2 min
3rd 2:03	BUF penalty · O. Power · tripping · 2 min
3rd 2:10	Goal CAR · S. Jarvis (PP)	60%	85%
3rd 17:31	CAR penalty · A. Svechnikov · roughing · 2 min
3rd 17:31	BUF penalty · R. McLeod · tripping · 2 min

On ice · final horn

BUF6 skaters · net empty

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
71R. McLeodC	0:29	14:44	23	0	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	7-5
72T. ThompsonC	2:29	22:47	23	0	0	0	6	8	0	1	2	5-7
86N. OstlundC	1:15	15:23	19	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0-1
17J. ZuckerL	2:19	14:59	17	0	1	1	0	2	0	2	0	2-2
91J. DoanR	2:29	17:30	20	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	–
26R. DahlinD	1:27	25:03	30	1	0	1	3	3	4	3	1	–

CAR5 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
11J. StaalC	1:40	19:44	24	0	0	0	3	4	0	3	0	13-8
48J. MartinookL	1:44	16:49	22	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	–
37A. SvechnikovR	0:29	17:17	24	1	1	2	1	2	6	4	0	–
5J. ChatfieldD	2:29	22:50	24	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	1	–
74J. SlavinD	2:29	22:53	23	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	–
32B. BussiG		59:24	SA18GA1SV%.944xGA2.37GSAx+1.37

Goals

1st
Rasmus Dahlin(1)
J. Quinn (1), J. Zucker (1)
xG 0.08snapClip(opens nhl.com)
1–0 BUF1st 01:33+17.352%
Andrei Svechnikov(1)
S. Aho (1), S. Walker (1)
xG 0.12tip-inClip(opens nhl.com)
1–1 Tied1st 07:04+18.364%
3rd
Seth Jarvis(1)PP
A. Svechnikov (1), S. Aho (2)
xG 0.07wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–2 CAR3rd 02:10+25.685%

Shots

BUF2.37 xG30 unblocked · 6 blocked30 unblocked · 6 blocked

CAR3.16 xG40 unblocked · 12 blocked40 unblocked · 12 blocked

GoalSavedMissedBlockedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

BUFCAR1Goals22.37xG3.1618Shots2930Unblocked4036Attempts523High danger40/1Power play1/222Faceoffs2625Hits2312Blocks66Takeaways720Giveaways178PIM6

Skaters

Player

Player
23M. SamuelssonMattias SamuelssonD	27:33	0	0	0	1	4	0.22	−0.22	1	1	0	1	—	0	0
26R. DahlinRasmus DahlinD	25:03	1	0	1	3	3	0.25	+0.75	3	1	1	2	—	4	0
4B. ByramBowen ByramD	25:01	0	0	0	2	4	0.21	−0.21	0	0	0	2	—	0	0
72T. ThompsonTage ThompsonC	22:47	0	0	0	6	8	0.72	−0.72	1	2	0	1	42%	0	0
25O. PowerOwen PowerD	22:07	0	0	0	2	2	0.17	−0.17	1	1	0	0	—	2	0
89A. TuchAlex TuchR	19:55	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	2	2	1	2	50%	0	0
91J. DoanJosh DoanR	17:30	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1	0	0	1	—	0	0
6Z. BensonZach BensonL	17:07	0	0	0	1	4	0.27	−0.27	0	1	2	1	—	0	0
86N. OstlundNoah OstlundC	15:23	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	−0.04	0	0	0	1	0%	0	0
17J. ZuckerJason ZuckerL	14:59	0	1	1	0	2	0.21	−0.21	2	0	0	1	50%	0	0
71R. McLeodRyan McLeodC	14:44	0	0	0	1	1	0.02	−0.02	1	0	1	0	58%	2	0
22J. QuinnJack QuinnR	14:31	0	1	1	0	2	0.05	−0.05	1	0	0	3	—	0	0
19P. KrebsPeyton KrebsC	11:04	0	0	0	1	2	0.02	−0.02	2	1	0	2	33%	0	0
94K. HeleniusKonsta HeleniusC	10:47	0	0	0	0	1	0.12	−0.12	0	0	1	1	0%	0	0
48T. KozakTyson KozakC	10:28	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	4	1	0	0	55%	0	0
29B. MalenstynBeck MalenstynL	10:23	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	5	0	0	0	—	0	0
73Z. MetsaZach MetsaD	8:41	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	1	0	0	—	0	0
78J. BrysonJacob BrysonD	8:00	0	0	0	1	1	0.06	−0.06	1	1	0	1	—	0	0
BUF total		1	2	3	18	36	2.37	−1.37	25	12	6	19	46%	8

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Quinn+0.23

Kozak−0.17

Benson−0.17

Zucker−0.18

Helenius−0.19

Thompson−0.21

Krebs−0.23

Malenstyn−0.26

Ostlund−0.31

Tuch−0.32

Doan−0.43

McLeod−0.53

Defence

Dahlin+0.53

Power−0.03

Bryson−0.07

Metsa−0.15

Byram−0.19

Samuelsson−0.28

Goalie

Luukkonen+0.68

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Zucker·McLeod·Quinn	9:15	16	4	10	28.6%	2	5	1	1	0.24	0.54	31.2%	−0.29	3	3	50%
Benson·Thompson·Tuch	8:47	16	6	5	54.5%	4	2	0	0	0.33	0.14	69.9%	+0.19	3	0	100%
Malenstyn·Krebs·Kozak	8:05	13	1	7	12.5%	0	6	0	0	0.00	0.33	0.0%	−0.33	1	4	20%
Ostlund·Helenius·Doan	6:18	10	1	7	12.5%	0	4	0	0	0.12	0.59	16.9%	−0.47	0	0	—
Thompson·Tuch·Doan	4:58	5	3	6	33.3%	0	2	0	0	0.11	0.30	27.4%	−0.19	1	1	50%
Benson·Ostlund·Helenius	3:15	5	7	0	100.0%	3	0	0	0	0.43	0.00	100.0%	+0.43	0	0	—
Occasional · 2 groups
Krebs·McLeod·Quinn	0:54	2	1	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.01	0.00	100.0%	+0.01	0	0	—
Benson·McLeod·Tuch	0:31	3	1	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.02	0.00	100.0%	+0.02	0	0	—
BUF 5v5	50:48		29	44	39.7%	14	23	1	1	1.79	2.22	44.6%	−0.43

Goalies

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

BUF · 57:50

Saves: 27/29
SV%: .931
xGA: 2.66
GSAx: +0.66

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	24/25	.960	2.44	+1.44
Power play	3/4	.750	0.22	−0.78
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	3/3	1.000	0.60	+0.60

Brandon Bussi

CAR · 59:24

Saves: 17/18
SV%: .944
xGA: 2.37
GSAx: +1.37

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	16/17	.941	2.18	+1.18
Power play	1/1	1.000	0.19	+0.19
Shorthanded	0/0	—	0.00	0.00
High danger	3/3	1.000	0.55	+0.55

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Buffalo Sabres

Minutes

27:33Samuelsson
25:03Dahlin
25:01Byram
22:07Power
8:41Metsa
8:00Bryson

22:47Thompson
19:55Tuch
17:30Doan
17:07Benson
15:23Ostlund
14:59Zucker
14:44McLeod
14:31Quinn
11:04Krebs
10:47Helenius
10:28Kozak
10:23Malenstyn

Matchups

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareBUFCAR

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

ByramD2 O3
BrysonD1 O0
MetsaD1 O0
DahlinD5 O3
PowerD4 O2
SamuelssonD6 O1
BensonD0 O4
OstlundD0 O1
ZuckerD3 O3
ThompsonD3 O3
QuinnD3 O3
DoanD2 O2
HeleniusD0 O0
TuchD4 O3
McLeodD5 O4
KrebsD4 O1
MalenstynD5 O1
KozakD5 O1

Shift starts · darker = later period