TOR @ BUF 3–5 · 2025-10-24

Team	1	2	3	SOG
TOR	2	0	1	34
BUF	2	2	1	30

Story

– / 14

Result BUF 5–3xG 2.63–2.70 · deserved BUF 51%Swing Thompson +21 2nd 7:20Method

Goals and penalties with BUF win probability
Time	Event	BUF win before	BUF win after
1st 4:38	Goal BUF · M. Samuelsson	50%	66%
1st 5:01	Goal TOR · W. Nylander	66%	50%
1st 6:12	Goal BUF · J. Kulich	50%	67%
1st 9:01	BUF penalty · R. Dahlin · tripping · 2 min
1st 11:39	BUF penalty · T. Thompson · hooking · 2 min
1st 12:45	Goal TOR · A. Matthews (PP)	68%	50%
1st 13:23	TOR penalty · M. Domi · hooking · 2 min
1st 13:26	TOR penalty · C. Jarnkrok · high sticking · 2 min
2nd 7:20	Goal BUF · T. Thompson	50%	71%
2nd 13:10	Goal BUF · M. Samuelsson	73%	88%
3rd 1:55	Goal TOR · D. Joshua	92%	77%
3rd 15:23	BUF penalty · R. Dahlin · delaying game puck over glass · 2 min
3rd 16:59	Goal BUF · A. Tuch (SH)	93%	100%
3rd 19:48	BUF penalty · P. Krebs · high sticking double minor · 4 min

On ice · final horn

TOR6 skaters · net empty

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
11M. DomiC	1:35	14:16	20	0	0	0	4	6	2	1	0	6-2
34A. MatthewsC	1:35	23:48	27	1	0	1	4	8	0	2	2	11-6
74B. McMannC	0:16	18:09	24	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	–
81D. JoshuaC	0:12	12:36	20	1	0	1	2	3	0	4	1	0-1
91J. TavaresC	2:05	19:16	20	0	1	1	3	7	0	0	1	11-10
95O. Ekman-LarssonD	2:14	25:50	32	0	2	2	4	10	0	0	0	–

BUF4 skaters

	Shift	TOI	#Sh	G	A	P	SOG	Att	PIM	Hit	Blk	FO
71R. McLeodC	0:12	20:03	27	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	5-17
89A. TuchR	0:12	19:34	25	1	1	2	2	5	0	1	5	1-0
21C. TimminsD	1:35	23:37	29	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	1	–
23M. SamuelssonD	0:12	23:38	31	2	0	2	3	5	0	0	4	–
34A. LyonG		60:00	SA34GA3SV%.912xGA2.63GSAx−0.37

Goals

1st
Mattias Samuelsson(1)
R. McLeod (1), A. Tuch (1)
xG 0.09wristClip(opens nhl.com)
0–1 BUF1st 04:38+16.466%
William Nylander(1)
O. Ekman-Larsson (1), B. Carlo (1)
xG 0.18wristClip(opens nhl.com)
1–1 Tied1st 05:01+16.550%
Jiri Kulich(1)
Z. Benson (1), T. Thompson (1)
xG 0.19snapClip(opens nhl.com)
1–2 BUF1st 06:12+16.767%
Auston Matthews(1)PP
J. Tavares (1), O. Ekman-Larsson (2)
xG 0.09slapClip(opens nhl.com)
2–2 Tied1st 12:45+17.750%
2nd
Tage Thompson(1)
B. Byram (1), J. Kulich (1)
xG 0.10wristClip(opens nhl.com)
2–3 BUF2nd 07:20+21.071%
Mattias Samuelsson(2)
R. Dahlin (1), P. Krebs (1)
xG 0.12slapClip(opens nhl.com)
2–4 BUF2nd 13:10+15.588%
3rd
Dakota Joshua(1)
E. Cowan (1), N. Roy (1)
xG 0.24wristClip(opens nhl.com)
3–4 BUF3rd 01:55+15.323%
Alex Tuch(1)SH
O. Power (1)
xG 0.19backhandClip(opens nhl.com)
3–5 BUF3rd 16:59+6.1100%

Shots

TOR2.63 xG45 unblocked · 23 blocked45 unblocked · 23 blocked

BUF2.70 xG45 unblocked · 14 blocked45 unblocked · 14 blocked

GoalSavedMissedBlockedSize = xG

xG breakdown

GoalIronSaveMissEVPPEASHSize = pony xG · blocked attempts carry none

Team stats

TORBUF3Goals52.63xG2.7034Shots3045Unblocked4568Attempts593High danger31/4Power play0/235Faceoffs2530Hits814Blocks237Takeaways318Giveaways134PIM10

Skaters

Player

Player
95O. Ekman-LarssonOliver Ekman-LarssonD	25:50	0	2	2	4	10	0.14	−0.14	0	0	1	2	—	0	0
34A. MatthewsAuston MatthewsC	23:48	1	0	1	4	8	0.27	+0.73	2	1	2	2	65%	0	0
25B. CarloBrandon CarloD	21:31	0	1	1	1	3	0.02	−0.02	1	0	0	0	—	0	+1
22J. McCabeJake McCabeD	20:32	0	0	0	1	3	0.04	−0.04	2	6	0	3	—	0	0
91J. TavaresJohn TavaresC	19:16	0	1	1	3	7	0.20	−0.20	0	1	0	2	52%	0	-2
23M. KniesMatthew KniesL	19:03	0	0	0	3	3	0.35	−0.35	4	2	0	0	—	0	-2
74B. McMannBobby McMannC	18:09	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.00	2	0	0	0	—	0	+1
88W. NylanderWilliam NylanderR	17:39	1	0	1	2	3	0.30	+0.70	1	0	0	1	0%	0	+1
2S. BenoitSimon BenoitD	16:53	0	0	0	1	3	0.03	−0.03	3	1	1	3	—	0	-1
55N. RoyNicolas RoyC	15:11	0	1	1	2	3	0.21	−0.21	3	0	1	0	60%	0	-1
63M. MaccelliMatias MaccelliL	14:40	0	0	0	1	3	0.29	−0.29	0	0	1	2	—	0	-2
11M. DomiMax DomiC	14:16	0	0	0	4	6	0.21	−0.21	1	0	1	2	75%	2	-1
51P. MyersPhilippe MyersD	14:05	0	0	0	3	6	0.10	−0.10	1	2	0	0	—	0	-3
36D. MermisDakota MermisD	13:12	0	0	0	1	2	0.03	−0.03	0	0	0	0	—	0	-2
81D. JoshuaDakota JoshuaC	12:36	1	0	1	2	3	0.36	+0.64	4	0	0	0	0%	0	0
53E. CowanEaston CowanR	11:05	0	1	1	1	2	0.06	−0.06	0	0	0	0	—	0	0
18S. LorentzSteven LorentzC	10:49	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	−0.01	4	0	0	0	0%	0	-2
19C. JarnkrokCalle JarnkrokC	10:16	0	0	0	1	1	0.01	−0.01	2	0	0	1	100%	2	-2
TOR total		3	6	9	34	68	2.63	+0.37	30	13	7	18	58%	4

Pony score

Cool = offence · warm = defenceProductionPlay drivingSpecial teamsUsageMethod

Forwards

Joshua+0.57

Nylander+0.54

Matthews+0.40

Cowan+0.38

Tavares+0.28

Roy+0.22

Knies−0.17

Maccelli−0.24

Lorentz−0.26

Domi−0.38

Jarnkrok−0.44

McMann−0.45

Defence

Ekman-Larsson+0.51

McCabe+0.28

Benoit+0.08

Myers+0.06

Carlo−0.03

Mermis−0.27

Goalie

Stolarz−2.28

Units

5v5

Lines

Lines
Matthews·McMann·Nylander	12:19	21	12	10	54.5%	6	7	1	0	0.42	0.41	50.4%	+0.01	3	0	100%
Knies·Maccelli·Tavares	8:47	14	10	13	43.5%	4	4	0	1	0.28	0.43	39.5%	−0.15	0	3	0%
Domi·Lorentz·Jarnkrok	8:05	13	5	3	62.5%	4	3	0	1	0.10	0.19	35.4%	−0.09	2	2	50%
Roy·Joshua·Cowan	7:44	13	8	3	72.7%	5	1	1	1	0.53	0.15	78.4%	+0.38	1	1	50%
Occasional · 9 groups
Knies·Domi·Tavares	1:10	2	2	0	100.0%	1	0	0	0	0.05	0.00	100.0%	+0.05	0	0	—
Maccelli·Joshua·Tavares	1:03	4	2	3	40.0%	0	2	0	0	0.00	0.11	0.0%	−0.11	0	1	0%
Knies·Matthews·Nylander	1:00	5	1	3	25.0%	1	2	0	0	0.12	0.08	62.1%	+0.05	0	0	—
Domi·Matthews·McMann	0:53	2	0	1	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.03	0.0%	−0.03	1	0	100%
Lorentz·Roy·Joshua	0:44	2	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	1	0%
Roy·Joshua·Nylander	0:43	2	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	—	0.00	0	0	—
Roy·McMann·Cowan	0:38	4	2	2	50.0%	1	1	0	0	0.03	0.30	8.2%	−0.27	0	0	—
Maccelli·McMann·Tavares	0:33	5	0	2	0.0%	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.04	0.0%	−0.04	0	0	—
Jarnkrok·Roy·Joshua	0:33	3	0	2	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.01	0.0%	−0.01	0	0	—
TOR 5v5	50:14		49	47	51.0%	23	26	2	4	1.65	2.08	44.3%	−0.43

Goalies

Anthony Stolarz

TOR · 57:09

Saves: 25/30
SV%: .833
xGA: 2.70
GSAx: −2.30

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	22/26	.846	2.08	−1.92
Power play	0/0	—	0.17	+0.17
Shorthanded	3/4	.750	0.45	−0.55
High danger	0/2	.000	0.62	−1.38

Alex Lyon

BUF · 60:00

Saves: 31/34
SV%: .912
xGA: 2.63
GSAx: −0.37

Facing	Saves	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Even	24/26	.923	1.79	−0.21
Power play	6/7	.857	0.79	−0.21
Shorthanded	1/1	1.000	0.05	+0.05
High danger	1/3	.333	0.64	−1.36

Lines

His goal Primary assist Goal for Goal against Time together ES PP PK minutes

Toronto Maple Leafs

Minutes

25:50Ekman-Larsson
21:31Carlo
20:32McCabe
16:53Benoit
14:05Myers
13:12Mermis

23:48Matthews
19:16Tavares
19:03Knies
18:09McMann
17:39Nylander
15:11Roy
14:40Maccelli
14:16Domi
12:36Joshua
11:05Cowan
10:49Lorentz
10:16Jarnkrok

Matchups

5v5Size = time head to headSplit = xG shareTORBUF

Zone starts

DZD zoneNZ · flyNeutral · flyOZO zone

Ekman-LarssonD3 O6
CarloD2 O3
MermisD2 O1
McCabeD6 O3
MyersD3 O0
BenoitD4 O1
NylanderD0 O4
MatthewsD2 O5
McMannD0 O3
DomiD3 O4
TavaresD2 O2
JarnkrokD2 O2
CowanD1 O1
RoyD3 O2
LorentzD3 O2
KniesD3 O2
JoshuaD3 O1
MaccelliD2 O0

Shift starts · darker = later period